(WASHINGTON) -- The Federal Reserve on Thursday will announce its latest decision on the direction of interest rates, setting the path for borrowing costs just two days after the victory of President-Elect Donald Trump.
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point in September, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, has forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point when it meets on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
In recent months, the U.S. has inched closer to a "soft landing," in which inflation returns to normal and the economy averts a recession.
Government data released last week showed robust economic growth over a recent three-month period, alongside a continued cooldown of inflation.
U.S. hiring slowed in October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation's workers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed.
Since 2021, the Fed has sought to rein in inflation with elevated interest rates. Even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest in September, it still stands at a historically high level.
Inflation has cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, hovering right near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants are widely expected to raise consumer prices, experts previously told ABC News.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked previously about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, "We don't think about politics."
The election of Trump appears to have delivered a boost for the stock market. The U.S. stock market soared at the open of trading on Wednesday, just hours after Trump declared victory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 1,300 points, amounting to a nearly 3% rise in the index. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each jumped more than 2%.
Shares of Tesla, the electric vehicle company headed by Trump ally Elon Musk, spiked about 14.5% in early trading on Wednesday.
SAN DIEGO (AP) — “Build the Wall†was Donald Trump’s rally cry in 2016, and he acted on his promise by tapping military budgets for hundreds of miles of border wall with Mexico. “Mass Deportation†was the buzzword that energized supporters for his White House bid in 2024.
Trump’s victory sets the stage for a swift crackdown after an AP VoteCast survey showed the president-elect’s supporters were largely focused on immigration and inflation — issues the Republican has been hammering throughout his campaign.
How and when Trump’s actions on immigration will take shape is uncertain.
While Trump and his advisers have offered outlines, many questions remain about how they would deport anywhere close to the 11 million people estimated to be in the country illegally. How would immigrants be identified? Where would they be detained? What if their countries refuse to take them back? Where would Trump find money and trained officers to carry out their deportation?
Trump has said he would invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a rarely used 1798 law that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country the U.S. is at war with. He has spoken about deploying the National Guard, which can be activated on orders from a governor. Stephen Miller, a top Trump adviser, has said troops under sympathetic Republican governors would send troops to nearby states that refuse to participate.
Trump, who repeatedly referred to immigrants “poisoning the blood†of the United States, has stricken fear in immigrant communities with words alone.
Julie Moreno, a U.S. citizen who has been married for seven years to a Mexican man who is in the country illegally, is adjusting to the idea that she may have to live separately from her husband, who came to the United States in 2004. She can move to Mexico from New Jersey but it would be nearly impossible to keep running her business importing boxing gloves.
“I don’t have words yet, too many feelings,†Moreno said, her voice breaking as she spoke Wednesday of Trump’s victory. “I am very scared for my husband’s safety. … If they detain him, what is going to happen?â€
Moreno’s husband, Neftali Juarez, ran a construction business and feels he has contributed to the country, paying taxes and providing employment through his company. “Unfortunately, the sentiment of the people who voted is different,†he said. “I feel horrible losing my wife.â€
Some policy experts expect Trump’s first immigration moves to be at the border. He may pressure Mexico to keep blocking migrants from reaching the U.S. border as it has since December. He may lean on Mexico to reinstate a Trump-era policy that made asylum-seekers wait in Mexico for hearings in U.S. immigration court.
Andrew Arthur, a fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports immigration restrictions, highlighted campaign remarks by Vice President-elect JD Vance that deporting millions would be done one step at a time, not all at once.
“You’re not talking about a dragnet,†Arthur, a former immigration judge, told The Associated Press. “There’s no way you could do it. The first thing you have to do is seal the border and then you can address the interior. All of this is going to be guided by the resources you have available.â€
Elena, a 46-year-old Nicaraguan who has been living in the United States illegally for 25 years, couldn’t sleep after Trump’s victory, crying about what to do if she and her husband, 50, are deported. They have two adult daughters, both U.S. citizens, who have had stomach pain and respiratory problems from anxiety about the election.
“It is so difficult for me to uproot myself from the country that I have seen as my home,†said Elena, who lives in South Florida and gave only her first name for fear of being deported. “I have made my roots here and it is difficult to have to abandon everything to start over.â€
Advocates are looking at where deportation arrests might take place and are watching especially closely to see if authorities adhere to a longstanding policy of avoiding schools, hospitals, places of worship and disaster relief centers, said Heidi Altman, federal advocacy director for the National Immigration Law Center’s Immigrant Justice Fund.
“We’re taking it very seriously,†said Altman. “We all have to have our eyes wide open to the fact that this isn’t 2016. Trump and Stephen Miller learned a lot from their first administration. The courts look very different than they did four years ago.â€
Trump is expected to resume other far-reaching policies from his first term and jettison key Biden moves. These include:
—Trump has harshly criticized Biden policies to create and expand legal pathways to entry, including an online app called CBP One under which nearly 1 million people have entered at land crossings with Mexico since January 2023. Another policy has allowed more than 500,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans to fly into the country with financial sponsors.
— Trump slashed the number of refugees screened abroad by the United Nations and State Department for settlement in the U.S. to its lowest level since Congress established the program in 1980. Biden rebuilt it, establishing an annual cap of 125,000, up from 18,000 under Trump.
—Trump sought to end the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which shielded people who came to the U.S. as young children from deportation. A lawsuit by Republican governors that has seemed headed for the Supreme Court challenges DACA. For now, hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients may renew their status but new applications aren’t accepted.
—Trump dramatically curtailed the use of Temporary Protected Status, created under a 1990 law to allow people already in the United States to stay if their homelands are deemed unsafe. Biden sharply expanded use of TPS, including to hundreds of thousands of Haitians and Venezuelans.
Maribel Hernandez, a Venezuelan on TPS that allows her to stay in the United States until April 2025, burst into tears as her 2-year-old son slept in a stroller outside New York’s Roosevelt Hotel as migrants discussed election fallout Wednesday.
“Imagine if they end it,†she said.
___
Salomon reported from Miami. AP reporter Cedar Attanasio contributed from New York.
SAN ANTONIO (AP) — A Texas appeals court ordered a new trial Wednesday for a Jewish man on death row — who was part of a gang of prisoners that fatally shot a police officer in 2000 after escaping — because of antisemitic bias by the judge who presided over his case.
Lawyers for Randy Halprin have contended that former Judge Vickers Cunningham in Dallas used racial slurs and antisemitic language to refer to him and some of his co-defendants.
Halprin, 47, was among the group of inmates known as the “ Texas 7,†who escaped from a South Texas prison in December 2000 and then committed numerous robberies, including the one in which they shot 29-year-old Irving police officer Aubrey Hawkins 11 times, killing him.
By a vote of 6-3, the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals ordered that Halprin’s conviction be overturned and that he be given a new trial after concluding that Cunningham was biased against him at the time of his trial because he is Jewish.
The appeals court found evidence showed that during his life, Cunningham repeated unsupported antisemitic narratives. When Cunningham became a judge, he continued to use derogatory language about Jewish people outside the courtroom “with ‘great hatred, (and) disgust’ and increasing intensity as the years passed,†the court said.
It also said that during Halprin’s trial, Cunningham made offensive antisemitic remarks outside the courtroom about Halprin in particular and Jews in general.
“The uncontradicted evidence supports a finding that Cunningham formed an opinion about Halprin that derived from an extrajudicial factor — Cunningham’s poisonous antisemitism,†the appeals court wrote in its ruling.
The court previously halted Halprin’s execution in 2019.
“Today, the Court of Criminal Appeals took a step towards broader trust in the criminal law by throwing out a hopelessly tainted death judgment handed down by a bigoted and biased judge,†Tivon Schardl, one of Halprin’s attorneys, said in a statement. “It also reminded Texans that religious bigotry has no place in our courts.â€
The order for a new trial came after state District Judge Lela Mays in Dallas said in a December 2022 ruling that Cunningham did not or could not curb the influence of his antisemitic bias in his judicial decision-making during the trial.
Mays wrote that Cunningham used racist, homophobic and antisemitic slurs to refer to Halprin and the other escaped inmates.
Cunningham stepped down from the bench in 2005 and is now an attorney in private practice in Dallas. His office said Wednesday that he would not be commenting on Halprin’s case.
Cunningham previously denied allegations of bigotry after telling the Dallas Morning News in 2018 that he has a living trust that rewards his children for marrying straight, white Christians. He had opposed interracial marriages but later told the newspaper that his views evolved.
The Tarrant County District Attorney’s Office was appointed to handle legal issues related to Halprin’s allegations after the Dallas County District Attorney’s Office, which prosecuted the case, was disqualified.
In September 2022, Tarrant County prosecutors filed court documents in which they said Halprin should get a new trial because Cunningham showed “actual bias†against him.
Of the seven inmates who escaped, one killed himself before the group was arrested. Four have been executed. Another, Patrick Murphy, awaits execution.
ANGELINA COUNTY — A Canadian national is in custody following an Angelina County traffic stop that led deputies to believe she was “engaging in multi-national arms smuggling.†According to our news partner KETK, deputies on patrol on US 59 near the north side of Lufkin witnessed a 2024 Toyota Corolla speeding and conducted a traffic stop on Wednesday evening. Officials identified the driver as a “Lyft ride sharing driver from Houston.†When speaking to the driver, deputies allegedly smelled a strong odor of marijuana coming from the vehicle and conducted a probable cause search for contraband.
Deputies reportedly located marijuana in the car and two large bags in the trunk. The Lyft customer, later identified as Canadian national Jahtaya O’Day Jah-Kiara Hamilton of Leamington, Ontario, stated the bags belong to her.
When officers opened the bags, a large quantity of handguns with a short barrel rifle, magazines and ammunition were found. Deputies determined there were 20 semi-automatic pistols. The sheriff’s office said a number of these pistols were reported stolen out of the Houston area. Continue reading Canadian national accused of arms smuggling in East Texas
UPDATE: Police continue to search for a Tyler 17-year-old who was last seen Nov. 1. The Tyler Police Department shared on Tuesday photos of what Lily Peppler was wearing on the day she went missing. Anyone with information on Peppler’s whereabouts is urged to contact the department at 903-531-1000. Continue reading Tyler Police search for missing teen
NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,†said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.â€
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving†system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,†nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.
The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.
TYLER – Gov. Greg Abbott was in Tyler Wednesday afternoon at Kingdom Life Academy to talk about the importance of school choice. According to our news partner KETK, Abbott was joined by school director Joel Enge in a question and answer session about Education Savings Accounts. The governor gave the floor to Enge who said he was excited about the advancement of school choice in Texas.
“As a Black founder of schools I can speak to the issue of how important school choice is for our Black and Hispanic students in our community, in the north Tyler community.†Enge said. “We desperately need school choice in order to open up opportunities that we offer.â€
MARSHALL – Law enforcement in Marshall have arrested a driver involved in a hit-and-run incident that has injured a pedestrian. According to our news partner KETK, Marshall Police received a call Tuesday night about an accident at the the intersection of West Burleson and North Bishop Street where a pedestrian had been hit by a vehicle.
Officers found a male victim at the location who said he had been hit by a dark-colored vehicle, whose driver fled the scene. The victim was taken to a hospital and treated for a broken leg.
Investigators identified the driver as 30-year-old Jonathan Olvera, of Marshall. Olvera was booked into the Harrison County Jail and charged with an accident involving serious bodily injury. He had an outstanding warrant from Marion County for tampering with physical evidence.
Marshall PD said “This investigation is ongoing, and no additional details are available at this time.â€
TATUM – Our news partners at KETK report that a woman who was punched and choked attempted to free herself from her attacker, who is now behind bars, by hitting him with a metal cup, the Tatum Police Department said. According to Tatum PD, Dameion Deon Simon and an unarmend woman were traveling to a friends house when they got in a verbal argument that became physical. The police department said it is alleged that Simon punched the victim several times and choked her. “Our victim, according to a written statement, attempted to free herself from Mr. Simon (victim was pinned down in Mr. Simon’s lap) by striking him with a metal cup,†Tatum PD said. Continue reading Woman fends off attack with metal cup, man arrested
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TEXARKANA – A 30-year-old registered sex offender is behind bars after evading arrest when a Texarkana mother found her teenager in his car early Monday morning, according to our news partners at KETK.
According to the Texarkana Police Department, a Texarkana mother called police when she found her 13-year-old daughter in a car parked in front of a house with Tyjae Clark, 30 of New Boston, instead of asleep in bed.
The police department said Clark kicked the girl out of the car and sped off when the mother confronted them. The mother was able to provide authorities with a car description and license plate number. Texarkana PD said the Wake Village Police Department found the car and stopped it a short time later.
It was then that Clark got out of the car and ran away from police. After a perimeter was set up in the area an officer spotted him and placed him under arrest, the police department said.
Clark was taken to the Bowie County Jail where he was originally only charged with evading detention until a search of Clark’s phone revealed several inappropriate messages between him and the girl, officials said.
According to police, the girl clearly told Clark, who has a lifetime requirement to register as a sex offender, that she was only 13-years-old.
The police department said based on the information and evidence, arrest warrants for aggravated sexual assault of a child and online solicitation of a minor were served to Clark.
Clark is being held at the Bowie County Jail on a total $410,000 bond.
MARSHALL – Our news partners at KETK report that a pedestrian is injured and a driver is behind bars after a Tuesday night crash in Marshall, authorities said. According to the Marshall Police Department, officers were called around 7:50 p.m. to the intersection of West Burleson and North Bishop Street where a pedestrian had been hit by a vehicle. The department said officers found a male victim who reported that a dark-colored vehicle had hit them and then fled. Officials said the victim was taken to a local hospital to treat their broken leg. Marshall PD said an investigation identified 30-year-old Jonathan Olvera, of Marshall, as the driver. Police said Olvera cooperated with investigators and was charged with accident involving serious bodily injury. Olvera was booked into the Harrison County Jail and also has an outstanding warrant for tampering with physical evidence out of Marion County. “This investigation is ongoing, and no additional details are available at this time,†Marshall PD said.
(NEW YORK) -- The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it's happening right now and affecting what matters most to us. Hurricanes intensified by a warming planet and drought-fueled wildfires are destroying our communities. Rising seas and flooding are swallowing our homes. And record-breaking heatwaves are reshaping our way of life.
The good news is we know how to turn the tide and avoid the worst possible outcomes. However, understanding what needs to be done can be confusing due to a constant stream of climate updates, scientific findings, and critical decisions that are shaping our future.
That's why the ABC News Climate and Weather Unit is cutting through the noise by curating what you need to know to keep the people and places you care about safe. We are dedicated to providing clarity amid the chaos, giving you the facts and insights necessary to navigate the climate realities of today -- and tomorrow.
Trump victory won't stop climate progress, US officials tell COP29
As COP29, the annual U.N. global climate conference, concludes its first week, the United States energy secretary, spoke out about a post-Biden energy future. The message to conference delegates: We will be here tomorrow.
President-elect Donald Trump has said he will withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, reducing the country's influence and participation in global climate negotiations. However, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said that other leaders, like governors, mayors and community groups, will continue to work on climate challenges.
"The future of U.S. climate policy may be less certain than it was last week, but this moment is not unprecedented," said Granholm in a press conference on Friday. "We've been here before and this time we are feeling even more bullish."
"The economy around the clean energy transition, the actual economics of this transition, is inexorable," she said.
The energy secretary touted the country's work in clean energy, highlighting the 400,000 workers hired and 900 clean energy factories opened in the U.S. since the passing of the bipartisan infrastructure law in 2021. She also highlighted the work done across the political aisle and the significant clean energy investments in red and blue districts.
"The absence of leadership in the White House does not mean that this energy transition is stopped," Granholm said, referring to the Trump administration.
At another COP29 event, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee echoed the secretary's sentiments, saying he's confident climate work will continue thanks to state leadership and multistate coalitions.
"We know that despite the election of Donald Trump, the incredible momentum, the incredible dynamic growth, the incredible support that has preexisted his administration will continue and continue unabated through the administration," Inslee said. "The reason I came here is to make sure people's ambition, ability to work together and aggressive actions are not slowed down at all because of that election."
"We know in the states that our destiny is in our hands and the tools are in our toolbox. And we cannot be stopped," he added.
-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin
'COP is no longer fit for purpose,' say climate veterans; call for reforms
Now, a group of veteran climate leaders and scientists, are calling for a significant overhaul of future COP conferences, including Christiana Figueres, head of the Paris climate talks in 2015; Ban Ki-moon, former secretary-general of the U.N.; and Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland and a climate advocate.
In an open letter, the 22 signatories begin by praising the past accomplishments of the COP conferences and the framework that has been established.
"We recognise the important diplomatic milestones of the past 28 years of climate negotiations," the letter states. "A remarkable consensus has been achieved with over 195 countries having agreed to strive to hold global warming to 1.5°C."
But the signatories go on to say that despite the COP successes, including agreements to phase out fossil fuels, "it is now clear that the COP is no longer fit for purpose. Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity."
The group says the world needs to "shift from negotiation to implementation" and listed seven recommendations for reforming what's become the most significant climate meeting in the world.
One suggested change is implementing "strict eligibility criteria" for future COP presidents to "exclude countries who do not support the phase out/transition away from fossil energy." That would also prevent their countries from hosting the event. Some climate advocates have criticized the decision to hold the last two COP meetings in countries where oil is a primary export.
The group is also calling for changing the meeting structure from one giant yearly convention to "smaller, more frequent, solution-driven meetings," improving implementation and accountability and better tracking of climate response funding, specifically interest-bearing loans the group says "exacerbates the debt burden of climate vulnerable nations."
In response to the letter, Laurence Tubiana, the head of the European Climate Foundation, posted on social media, "I know some are frustrated with the COP and UNFCCC processes, given the urgent need to accelerate action. While reforms are needed, let's not forget: multilateralism is the foundation of climate progress. The Paris Agreement happened because every country had a voice."
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Solving the climate crisis could cost trillions, according to new report
Before a single delegate arrived in Azerbaijan for COP29, the U.N. climate conference, the event was being billed as the “finance COP.” The expectation was that world climate leaders would reach an agreement on how to fund global efforts to curb climate change and aid developing countries who are bearing a great burden of climate-related loss and damage.
From highlighting global policy advancements to the gaps in funding climate progress, Thursday’s conference activities had a clear message: invest now.
Leaders from the Taskforce on Net Zero Policy published a report on how well the world is doing in reaching net zero, a state where the carbon emissions we generate can be absorbed and stored by nature or technology. To be in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, countries must be on target to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
While the report indicated significant advancement in achieving net zero, it found that emissions reduction efforts are not ambitious enough to meet the 2050 target.
During his remarks on Thursday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres pushed for businesses, financial institutions and governments to all work towards more aggressive net zero policies while maintaining high levels of transparency.
“We need a massive global effort to steer our world onto a path to safety; a path to net zero by mid-century. Cities and regions, businesses and financial institutions play a pivotal role. And you are out in the front: Helping consumers, investors and regulators understand what credible net zero looks like,” the Secretary-General said.
But to make those policies possible, the money must be there.
Since COP26, the Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance has released a report on how much it could cost to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In their latest report, they estimate that $6.5 trillion is needed yearly by 2030.
“The transition to clean, low-carbon energy, building resilience to the impacts of climate change, coping with loss and damage, protecting nature and biodiversity, and ensuring a just transition, require a rapid step-up in investment in all countries,” the report stated.
The question of who pays is a heated topic. Delegates are using their time in Baku to negotiate a global finance agreement. Whether they can come to an agreement is yet to be seen.
The report, however, emphasized the importance of acting now.
“Any shortfall in investment before 2030 will place added pressure on the years that follow, creating a steeper and potentially more costly path to climate stability,” the report continued. “The less the world achieves now, the more we will need to invest later.”
-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin
The world's response to climate change has "flatlined," according to new report
As world climate leaders meet in Azerbaijan at this year's climate conference, COP29, a new report warns that their efforts to curb climate change have "flatlined" since 2021.
Researchers from Climate Action Tracker, an independent project tracking government action on climate change, say their report demonstrates "a critical disconnect" between the impacts of climate change and political action to address it.
"Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021," the study says. "The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming."
The 2.7 degrees estimate is significantly higher than the 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels limit called for in the Paris Agreement. Scientists say the world must stay below 1.5 degrees to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change."
"We are clearly failing to bend the curve. As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent," Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics, the report's lead author, said.
Gonzales-Zuniga did, however, caution that the 2.7 degree metric was a median estimate and the actual warming number has a 50% chance of being above or below 2.7 degree Celsius.
"But our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of our projection being 3.0 degrees Celsius - or higher - and a 10% chance of being 3.6 degrees Celsius or higher, an absolutely catastrophic level of warming," she added.
The world's governments are currently developing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which happens every five years as a part of the Paris Agreement. NDCs are climate action plans showing countries' emissions reduction goals through 2035.
The Climate Action Tracker also calculated the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump's possible climate regulation rollbacks as laid out in Project 2025.
Researchers found that if the impact is limited to the U.S., warming could increase by 0.04 degrees Celsius. However, if other countries follow suit, there could be a much more significant negative impact.
"Clearly, we won't know the full impact of the U.S. elections until President-Elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the U.S. now that will be difficult to stop," Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said. "While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at a significant scale."
"The key issue is whether countries stick together and continue to move forward with action, a Trump rollback of U.S. policies, as damaging as it is, can be overcome," he added.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Kelly Livingston
UN-backed carbon credits market gets greenlight, potentially revolutionizing the process
After a yearslong deadlock, delegates at COP29, the U.N. global climate conference, have finally reached an agreement on international carbon market standards, a critical step in launching a global carbon market.
The new global carbon market would standardize the issuing, trading and redeeming of carbon credits. A carbon credit is a voucher representing a specific amount of greenhouse gas reduction or removal from the atmosphere. Individuals, businesses, organizations and countries can use carbon credits to offset an action that produces emissions -- for example, paying for tree planting to offset the emissions from a factory or an airplane flight.
Presently, carbon trading markets are run by various organizations with little to no regulation or universal standards. However, a U.N.-backed global carbon market would provide the financial and regulatory support of the international governing body.
U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said the new global carbon market will help countries implement their climate plans faster and cheaper, driving down emissions. Since this will be an open international market, companies, organizations and individuals could utilize the market to meet their voluntary climate targets, regardless of their nation’s participation.
A U.N.-backed global climate market would also bring significant financial benefits to the global market. Yalchin Rafiyev, COP29 lead negotiator, said this new market will be a game-changing tool that directs resources to the developing world and helps save up to $250 billion a year on climate plan implementation.
The International Emissions Trading Association, a nonprofit business group that supports global carbon markets, said that within a few years, the implementation of the U.N.-back carbon market not only has the potential to save the global economy billions of dollars per year, but could also cut approximately 5 billion metric tons of carbon output annually.
While a path has been cleared for this new carbon market to become operational, COP29 negotiators said there is still more work to do before it can be launched. Discussions will continue through the end of the conference to address any additional questions and concerns.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Day 3 at COP29 shows how hard it will be for the world to quit fossil fuels
Day three of COP29, the global U.N. climate conference, highlighted how challenging it will be for the world to transition away from fossil fuels. As some countries are making new commitments to reduce emissions and ramp up clean energy production, others are advocating for the continued use of fossil fuels.
Joining the United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates, Brazil announced its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans on Wednesday. NDCs are each country's plan for achieving the goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. Brazil has pledged to reduce its carbon emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035.
"Cutting emissions by 67% by 2035 could put Brazil on a pathway to reach net-zero by 2050," said Karen Silverwood-Cope, climate director of WRI Brasil.
Brazil is hosting next year's COP, and Silverwood-Cope said the country has "a responsibility to lead by example and aim high."
But Silverwood-Cope also pointed out that Brazil's NDC does not include a plan for reducing fossil fuel emissions. Instead, they are pledging to increase biofuel production. Biofuel is produced from renewable biological sources, including plants and algae. In Brazil, biofuel primarily comes from soybean oil. As a country with a history of mass deforestation, the loss of vegetation and forests for energy is controversial.
"Instead of saying that they're going to reduce oil consumption in the country, they are betting on biofuels," said Silverwood-Cope.
She said Brazil plans to use denigrated land for biofuel production. Deingrated land is land that has already been deforested.
As Brazil announced its new, stronger climate pledge, another South American country moved in the opposite direction by literally walking out of the conference.
Argentinian President Javier Milei ordered the country's COP29 representatives to withdraw from the conference and return home. Milei, the country's newly-elected, far-right president, has a history of climate change denial.
Despite the drama, delegates came to some agreements, including using more nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuels.
The United States, El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Türkiye endorsed a declaration calling for tripling the use of nuclear energy by 2050.
Italy also voiced its support for more nuclear energy and touted its ongoing investment in nuclear fusion research. Unlike current nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion doesn't create radioactive waste. Despite billions of dollars in research funding, the technology has yet to be developed commercially.
"We must use all available technologies. Not only renewables, but also gas, biofuels, hydrogen, CO2 capture, and, in the future, nuclear fusion," said Italian President Giorgia Meloni. "Italy is at the forefront on nuclear fusion."
-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin
Fossil fuel emissions hit record highs in 2024, according to study
If negotiating international agreements to slow down and reverse the global climate crisis wasn't challenging enough, the delegates at COP29, the U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan, are facing the grim reality that the world is moving in the wrong direction when it comes to fossil fuels.
According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report from the Global Carbon Project, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024. The study projects that carbon dioxide (CO?) emissions will reach 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.
For almost three decades, international leaders have been attending COP conferences and discussing the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, despite these efforts, the Global Carbon Project says, "There is still no sign that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions."
"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," wrote Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute in a press statement.
He added, "Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts."
Although the past decade has seen a decline in emissions from deforestation and land-use changes, emissions this year are rising compared to 2023, influenced by extreme drought conditions linked to the 2023-2024 El Niño climate event, according to the study. Despite this increase, land-use emissions have actually declined by 20% over the past decade thanks to reforestation and afforestation efforts.
Efforts to stop burning coal for energy are slowing down the year-over-year increase in those emissions, but they are still rising, albeit modestly. The study estimates that global coal emissions will increase by 0.2%. China and India are seeing increases of 0.2% and 4.5%, respectively, while the United States and the European Union are seeing declines of 3.5% and 15.8%.
Overall, the study found that China's emissions (32% of the worldwide total) for 2024 are expected to increase by 0.2% compared to 2023. India (8% of the worldwide total) is projected to grow emissions by 4.6% from the previous year. The European Union (7% of the worldwide total) should see a 3.8% decline year-to-year and the United States (13% of the worldwide total) is looking at a 0.6% decrease compared to 2023.
It's important to remember that many products purchased and used in the U.S. and Europe are made in places like China and India. Hence, their emissions reflect the manufacturing of goods for other countries.
According to the research, this trend worsens the cumulative impact of CO? in the atmosphere, projected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, representing a 52% increase compared to pre-industrial levels.
There is some good news in the data. The study finds that many countries have succeeded in reducing their fossil fuel carbon emissions or slowing down their growth. However, it's not enough to put the world on a path to net zero.
"There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive," wrote Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in a statement. "Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others."
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
World leaders send mixed messages about the climate crisis on Day 2 of COP29
If there was a theme for the second day of COP29, the U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan, it would be mixed messaging from world leaders. As some nations announced ambitious new climate goals, others justified their continued reliance on fossil fuels. The developments come when the world is questioning the United States' future commitment to climate progress in light of President-elect Donald Trump's previous comments about climate change and his selection for EPA administrator.
During his remarks, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose country is hosting the event, defended the use of fossil fuels, calling oil a "a gift of the God" and saying that it is just like any other natural resource. He added that countries "should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market."
"To accuse us that we have oil is the same like to accuse us that we have more than 250 sunny days in Baku," said Aliyev.
Aliyev also called Western countries hypocrites for decrying oil production and calling for an end to fossil fuel use while still buying oil from countries like Azerbaijan. The European Commission signed an agreement with Azerbaijan in 2022 to receive oil from them when they stopped getting it from Russia. He said double standards are the "modus operandi" for climate talks.
Aliyev's pro-oil statements aren't expected to sidetrack the negotiations. David Waskow, director of international climate action at World Resources Institute, said statements from world leaders "in a sense float above the COP."
But Aliyev's comments added fuel to the criticism that oil-producing states shouldn't be hosting a global climate conference. The United Arab Emirates, another country with significant oil production, hosted last year's event.
Baku is also not an easy place to get to. Conference-goers had to travel by plane because all land routes are closed. A recent study identified that 291 private plane flights to COP28 in Dubai generated 3.8 kilotons of CO2.
How does a nation that touts the excellence of oil and gas end up as the host of an incredibly consequential climate conference?
The answer is entirely procedural. Each year, one of the five U.N. regional groups is selected on a rotational basis to host next year's conference. Group members choose which country will host based on logistics and ability. As a result, champions of climate progress and oil-rich countries are equally likely to host the global climate conference.
Unlike the Azerbaijani president's call to maintain the status quo, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the urgency and stakes of controlling global emissions.
"We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and time is not on our side," the Secretary-General said, urging countries to commit legislatively and financially to the climate response.
He called 2024 "a masterclass in climate destruction," pointing out all of the climate records broken during the year, including the hottest day and months on record, adding that "this is almost certain to be the hottest year on record."
-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
UK, Brazil and UAE unveil plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions
Some of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters have announced their plans to reduce emissions at the ongoing United Nations climate conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Although not due until 2025, The United Kingdom, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates released their respective Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets at the conference, marking ambitious plans to reduce their climate impacts.
Under the Paris Agreement, participating countries are required to release their NDCs every five years as part of the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
"The U.K., Brazil and the UAE are the first major emitters to put forward new national climate commitments, which are the main vehicle for countries to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid catastrophic climate impacts," Melanie Robinson, global director of climate, economics and finance at World Resources Institute said of the announcements.
"Encouragingly, these three nations' new climate targets could put them on a path to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 if their highest ambitions are realized," Robison said.
The U.K. goal aims to reduce the nation's greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81%, compared to their 1990 levels.
The Brazilian government is expected to release its NDC on Wednesday. In a preview announcement, the country said it's committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67%.
"This commitment will allow Brazil to advance towards climate neutrality by 2050, the long-term target of the climate commitment," the government wrote in a statement Monday night. "The NDC results from an extensive assessment of Brazil's emission scenarios. It acknowledges the urgency of combating the climate crisis, addresses the need to build resilience, and sets a roadmap for a low-carbon future for Brazil's society, economy, and ecosystems."
In the UAE's NDC, released last week, the nation sets an emissions reduction target of 47% by 2035, compared to 2019.
"The UAE's third NDC outlines a unified vision for addressing climate change that is aligned and informed by the UAE Consensus adopted at COP28," the UAE wrote in its newest NDC. "The UAE Consensus emphasizes the need for accelerated action across all pillars of the Paris Agreement and serves as a roadmap for enhancing mitigation ambition, scaling up adaptation efforts, and aligning financial flows with low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathways."
"I think when you look at these in the aggregate, what we're seeing is that if these countries really pursue the full extent of what they've committed to, that they would be on track to achieve their net zero targets at mid-century," said David Waskow, director of international climate action at the World Resources Institute, during a press call.
"With all three of them, there's an important question about actually implementing them, and we're going to need to see strong policies and investments," Waskow added.
WRI's Robinson also expressed skepticism about the announcements.
"While these initial 2035 targets look good on paper, they won't move the needle unless countries take bold and immediate steps to turn them into action. The true measure of progress will be whether countries back up their promises with transformative policies and investments that embed climate action at the core of their economic strategies," said Robinson.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Kelly Livingston
EPA says oil and gas companies have to pay up for excessive methane emissions
For the first time, high-emitting oil and gas facilities will have to pay a fee for emitting a potent greenhouse gas if those emissions exceed a certain level set by the U.S. Environmental Production Agency (EPA).
The new rule, finalized on Tuesday, was announced by John Podesta, the top U.S. climate representative at COP29, the annual U.N. climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The regulation would cap the amount of methane that certain oil and gas facilities could release into the atmosphere. The companies will be charged a fee for each metric ton of methane exceeding that limit, starting at $900 per metric ton, increasing to $1,200 in 2025 and $1,500 in 2026.
EPA administrator Michael S. Regan wrote in a statement, "EPA has been engaging with industry, states, and communities to reduce methane emissions so that natural gas ultimately makes it to consumers as usable fuel — instead of as a harmful greenhouse gas."
He added, "Along with EPA's complementary set of technology standards and historic financial and technical resources under the Inflation Reduction Act, today's action ensures that America continues to lead in deploying technologies and innovations that lower our emissions."
The EPA estimates the new rule will reduce methane emissions by 1.2 million metric tons through 2035. That's the equivalent of taking 8 million gas-powered cars off the road for an entire year, according to the agency.
The EPA classifies methane as a "super pollutant" and says that over 100 years, one ton of methane released into the atmosphere "traps 28 times as much heat in the Earth system as one ton of emitted carbon dioxide." On a 20-year time scale, it's 84 times more potent, according to the European Union.
The EPA said the oil and natural gas industry is the largest industrial source of the greenhouse gas.
During a press call, David Waskow, director of international climate action at the World Resources Institute, said, "Large oil and gas companies actually supported the fee approach, and I think that they're aiming to make sure that methane, which has been a sort of sore spot in the oil and gas industry, is cleaned up as a way of helping the reputation of the oil and gas industry."
Waskow said that even if the incoming Trump administration tries to undo the regulation, he believes its support within the industry may help keep it in place.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Global climate conference off to a challenging start
How much will it cost to fight climate change globally, and who should pay for it? That's the primary issue facing delegates at the annual U.N. climate conference, COP29. Dubbed the "finance COP," the two-week event began on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan.
While representatives from nations worldwide will discuss various climate issues, finance is a key theme this year, namely how much external financing will be available to developing countries for their climate adaptation efforts and to compensate them for the damage and loss caused by climate change. Although wealthier countries generate the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, poorer nations are disproportionately impacted by the consequences of global warming.
Conference attendees and climate leaders will be watching closely the climate investment commitments made by various nations and private finance, and much of the discussion will revolve around who should be paying and how much they should be contributing.
The current target for international public and private financing is around $100 billion, but the U.N. estimates that it will take as much as $2.4 trillion by 2030 to meet climate goals, with $1 trillion coming from international sources.
It's uncertain, however, how much each nation will contribute and where the money will go.
"For those poorest countries and particularly for adaptation, finance needs to be in grant and concessional form," said Melanie Robinson, the global climate, economics and finance program director at the World Resources Institute.
One issue sure to be controversial is whether developing countries that can afford to contribute to the global effort should be added to the contributor base. Critics of that recommendation say the biggest emitters should be the most significant contributors.
U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell set the table for the talks during his opening address, focusing on what's at stake.
"If at least two-thirds of the world's nations cannot afford to cut emissions quickly, then every nation pays a brutal price," said Stiell. "If nations can't build resilience into supply chains, the entire global economy will be brought to its knees. No country is immune."
Stiell added, "So, let's dispense with the idea that climate finance is charity. An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every single nation, including the largest and wealthiest."
On the same day Stiell was delivering his remarks, preliminary data from the World Meteorological Organization showed that 2024 remains on track to be the warmest year on record and will likely become the first year that is more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial average
COP29 takes place in the shadow of significant political challenges, including changes in worldwide political leanings and the recent presidential election in the U.S. It didn't help that delegates had to delay the convention activities on Monday because leaders couldn't agree on a conference agenda. Who would be leading financial planning meetings, as well as an unconventional move from a supervisory board to pass new standards without any consultation, were the primary sources of contestation.
Mukhtar Babayev, president of COP29 and Azerbaijan minister of ecology and natural resources, suspended sessions for further talks on the agenda.
"The hour is late, we have a lot of work ahead of us," Babayev said as the delayed session resumed.
-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
US climate envoy tells global climate conference the fight must continue despite election results
With the future of U.S. climate and environmental policies uncertain following the presidential election, the world is gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, to talk climate change. COP29, formally known as the 29th Annual Conference of Parties, opened Monday with questions about the United States' commitment to global climate goals in light of the 2024 election results.
At a press conference on Monday, U.S. Climate Change Envoy John Podesta told reporters, "For those of us dedicated to climate action, last week's outcome in the United States is obviously bitterly disappointing."
"It is clear that the next administration will try to take a U-turn and reverse much of this progress," Podesta said. "And I know that this disappointment is more difficult to tolerate as the dangers we face grow ever more catastrophic," he added.
In sharp contrast to President-elect Donald Trump calling climate change a hoax, promising to "drill, baby, drill," and roll back unused Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds, Podesta highlighted the Biden-Harris Administration's efforts to combat climate change, including the move to rejoin the Paris Agreement and the climate and clean energy investments made through the IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
Podesta said that while the Biden Administration will work with the incoming Trump Administration to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, "This is not the end of our fight for a cleaner, safer planet."
"Facts are still facts. Science is still science," he added. "The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country, this fight is bigger still, because we are all living through a year defined by the climate crisis in every country of the world."
Podesta pointed to extreme heat records, recent hurricanes in the Southeast United States, flooding in Spain, severe drought in southern Africa, and wildfires in the Amazon as some examples of the acute impacts of climate change felt around the world just this year.
Following then-President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017, a coalition of local and state government leaders, organizations and private industry members announced the joint declaration, "We Are Still In."
Podesta reminded attendees of that effort, saying that while a Trump White House may pose challenges for federal level climate action, the U.S. is not giving up on its goals and that support for clean energy, an issue that "has become bipartisan in the United States."
"You might not know that by reading the newspapers, but it has," he said. "57% of new clean energy jobs created since the Inflation Reduction Act passed are located in congressional districts represented by Republicans."
He added, "We can and will make real progress on the backs of our climate committed states and cities, our innovators, our companies and our citizens, especially young people, who understand more than most that climate change poses an existential threat that we cannot afford to ignore. Failure or apathy is simply not an option."
-ABC News Climate Unit's Kelly Livingston and Matthew Glasser
How a university is using AI to reduce cafeteria food waste
Food waste is a massive problem. According to the UN, the world wastes more than a billion tons annually. Here at home, Americans waste around 80 million tons each year. And worldwide, nearly 40% of all the food we produce is lost or wasted, according to the WWF.
At the same time, Feeding America, a nationwide network of food banks and pantries, says 47 million people in the U.S. face hunger, including 1 in 5 children. Then, there are the significant environmental impacts of sending so much wasted food to landfills. Left to decompose, this organic waste releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that's far more potent than carbon dioxide.
Erin Murphy, a student at Georgia State University (GSU) in Atlanta and a sustainability initiatives intern, saw all the food her peers were wasting and wanted to do something about it. She applied for a grant to bring new technology to campus that uses artificial intelligence to examine food waste and provide real-time data on what's left behind.
The technology, aptly named "Raccoon Eyes," analyzes the food left on each plate, categorizing and weighing the leftovers to provide detailed data on the waste and recommendations for reducing the leftovers.
When students finish their meals, they place their plates on a conveyor belt, where "Raccoon Eyes" captures an image of the plate. AI then uses that picture to evaluate the contents. This data is displayed on an online dashboard, offering real-time insights to the dining staff.
Ivan Zou, the co-founder of "Raccoon Eyes," said the information helps identify trends, such as how many plates of a specific meal were uneaten. For example, the system showed that students ate most of the salmon they put on their plates during a particular meal, but they left behind a lot of french fries during another meal.
Jennifer Wilson, GSU's Director of Sustainability, said that since the program's launch in January, the AI has analyzed over 400,000 plates and found that approximately 21% contained food waste.
And it turns out that some of the most popular items, like chicken, pizza, and french fries, also generate the most waste. However, the dashboard's detailed feedback also reveals that popular meals often have leftover portions because students take too much, not because the food is unpopular. This nuanced insight helps dining services adjust not only the menu but also portion sizes and serving methods.
The initiative is already making a difference. In the first four months, GSU reduced food waste by 23%, thanks to AI insights and increased student awareness.
The program even encourages feedback through a kiosk where students can leave comments like "sorry for my waste." Such feedback has proven invaluable, guiding the dining team in refining their offerings, for instance, by making more of the crowd-favorite Hot Cheetos sushi and less of other less popular items.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser, ABC News' Matt German, and ABC News meteorologist Dan Manzo
Drought in US improves slightly but still a problem for half the country
Heading into November, widespread drought conditions are still a significant concern across the country, with the Northeast currently experiencing some of the worst impacts, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor update released Thursday.
Overall, more than half of the contiguous United States is still grappling with drought. But there are some areas where things are improving slightly. A large swath of the central U.S. saw its drought situation improve, according to the data.
As a result, countrywide drought coverage decreased from 54.08% to 51.89% week over week. Moderate to severe drought conditions expanded in the Northeast, with portions of southern New Jersey now experiencing extreme drought conditions. Recent heavy rain in the Southern Plains brought drought improvements to parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
October was one of the driest months on record for the U.S., triggering a significant increase in the area and severity of drought conditions. While the overall drought coverage has decreased slightly, over 87% of the lower 48 states continue to experience abnormally dry conditions, the most extensive coverage area ever recorded by the U.S. Drought Monitor, which began tracking the data in 2000.
Drought is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Among these, extreme heat is strongly linked to human-amplified climate change. More frequent and intense extreme heat events can worsen the effects of drought. Drought risk has increased in the Southwest over the past century, according to the federal government's Fifth National Climate Assessment.
Over the next week, measurable rain is forecast across most of the country, with widespread significant rainfall likely across portions of the Midwest, Plains and Pacific Northwest.
Looking ahead, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said most of the country will likely experience above-average precipitation in mid-November, particularly in the Midwest, Plains and West. Most of the East Coast and Gulf Coast can expect near-average rainfall during this period. No part of the nation should experience below-average precipitation during this time.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
2024 a near certainty to be the warmest year on record
It's now virtually certain that 2024 will surpass 2023 as Earth's warmest year on record, according to a new report by Copernicus, the European Union's Climate Change Service. As of October 2024, the average global year-to-date temperature was 0.16 degrees Celsius (or 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than it was in 2023, which is the warmest year ever recorded.
While .16 degrees may not seem significant, even small global temperature increases can trigger substantial changes in weather patterns, leading to more extreme events like heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, according to climate scientists at NASA.
Last month was also the second warmest October globally, with an average temperature of 15.25 degrees Celsius, or 59.45 degrees Fahrenheit.
Copernicus noted that 2024 will likely be the first year to be 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) than the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
The global average temperature over the past twelve months (November 2023 through October 2024) was 1.62 degrees Celsius or 2.92 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels.
The Paris Agreement goals aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent the worst outcomes of climate change.
Global daily sea surface temperatures across most of the world's oceans remain well above average, including much of the Atlantic Basin. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures can make hurricanes more intense and may play a role during the remainder of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which ends on November 30th.
Persistent marine heatwaves are also a major concern for the world's coral reefs as the largest global coral bleaching event on record continues to impact these delicate ecosystems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that nearly 77% of the world's coral reef areas have experienced bleaching-level heat stress during this latest event, the second global coral reef bleaching event in the last 10 years.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Study finds use of renewable energy sources reduces risk of blackouts
The Texas freeze of 2021 knocked out power for more than 10 million people, leaving some without heat for days. In the aftermath of the storm, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told a national news network that "Wind and solar got shut down." He added, "They were collectively more than 10% of our power grid, and that thrust Texas into a situation where it was lacking power on a statewide basis."
However, in the aftermath, a research study found that renewable energy sources (RES) weren't to blame. Instead, the researchers found that Texas "failed to sufficiently winterize its electricity and gas systems after 2011."
Other blackouts have also been blamed on RES, including the 2016 blackout in South Australia and a 2019 outage in the U.K., both of which involved disruptions to wind farms.
Now, according to a new study from The University of Tennessee, grids with higher renewable energy penetration are actually less vulnerable to blackouts than those more reliant on traditional, non-renewable sources.
The analysis found that as the proportion of renewable energy in the grid increases, the intensity of blackouts -- measured by the number of affected customers and the length of outages -- decreases. This finding challenges the notion that renewable energy inherently makes power grids more fragile.
The researchers analyzed over 2,000 blackouts across the U.S., looking specifically at how renewable energy levels and various weather patterns influenced outage severity. They discovered that high levels of renewables didn't contribute to an increase in weather-related blackouts.
In grids where renewables made up more than 30% of the energy supply, blackout events were generally less intense and shorter in duration. This trend held even during extreme weather, like high winds and storms, which can place heavy demands on power systems.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Researchers say they've devised the perfect placement for EV chargers
When you buy a gas-powered car, you rarely worry about where to fill it up. That's because gas stations are everywhere. A 2022 McKinsey survey found that more than 40% of prospective electric vehicle (EV) buyers want that same degree of convenience when it comes to public charger availability for EVs.
Engineers at Cornell University say they have devised a solution for where to place EV charging stations so they are convenient for drivers and profitable for companies.
Using Bayesian optimization, a mathematical method that efficiently analyzes complex data to achieve these results, the research team discovered that for urban areas that it's best to install an equal percentage of medium-speed and fast chargers. And because motorists use different speed chargers for different reasons, the researchers said it is essential to consider how they are being used when placing them around town.
For example, the engineers found that fast charging is more important at grocery stores when consumers are only inside for 20 minutes. Work and home charging stations should be medium speed because drivers usually park for hours at a time at those locations.
The researchers say their approach can boost investor returns by 50% to 100% compared to random placement strategies.
The team simulated the behavior of 30,000 vehicles over 113,000 trips in the Atlanta region, considering various traffic patterns and driver decisions. This method allowed them to determine optimal charging station placements.
Yeuchen Sophia Liu, the study's lead author, told the Cornell Chronicle that, "Placing publicly available charging stations around cities sounds like a simple thing, but mathematically, it's actually very hard."
She added, "Economically strategic placement of charging stations could play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition to zero-emission vehicles."
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Nearly 40% of the world's trees face extinction, according to new assessment
Climate change, deforestation, invasive pests and disease all threaten to permanently wipe out nearly 40% of the earth's trees, according to a new assessment by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
The organization, comprised of 1,400 member organizations worldwide and 16,000 experts, said more than one in three tree species across 192 countries is now facing extinction, especially trees found on islands.
development and agriculture, as well as the other threats faced by tree species across the globe.
Since 1964, the IUCN has hosted its "Red List," a database of threatened species from around the world. The research group found that 16,425 of the 47,282 tree species on their list are at risk of extinction -- more than 2,000 of which are used for medicines, food, and fuels.
"Trees are essential to support life on Earth through their vital role in ecosystems, and millions of people depend upon them for their lives and livelihoods," said Grethel Aguilar, IUCN director general, in a statement.
According to their analysis, "the number of threatened trees is more than double the number of all threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians combined."
The group is calling for more habitat protection and restoration to protect these species and the creation of seed banks and botanical gardens to ensure they don't disappear forever.
“The significance of the Global Tree Assessment cannot be overstated, given the importance of trees to ecosystems and people. We hope this frightening statistic of one in three trees facing extinction will incentivize urgent action and be used to inform conservation plans,” said Eimear Nic Lughadha from the Royal Botanic Gardens, in a statement.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser
Report finds climate change increased heat deaths among older adults by 167%; worsened food security
The health and economic costs of climate change are rising worldwide, according to the newly released 2024 Lancet Countdown, a yearly report hosted by University College London and involving more than 300 researchers.
According to the report, "Of the 15 indicators monitoring climate change-related health hazards, exposures, and impacts, ten reached concerning new records in their most recent year of data."
With global communities facing an additional 50 days of "dangerous heat," heat-related deaths among older adults increased by a record-breaking 167% in 2023 compared to the 1990s, according to the report's findings.
In addition to the heat impact, the Lancet report found that climate change is significantly worsening food insecurity, with 151 million more people facing shortages compared to previous decades. And more than 3 million people died in 2021 because of air pollution and fine particulate matter.
The researchers also found that global extreme weather costs have increased by 23% from 2010-14 to 2019-23, amounting to $227 billion annually.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Kelly Livingston and ABC News Medical Unit's Sony Salzman
(WASHINGTON) -- As former President Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. presidential election early Wednesday, shares of his media company, Trump Media & Technology, surged about 34% to about $45.49 in pre-market trading.
With U.S. markets yet to open, early indicators appeared to show Wall Street's bullish view of a second term for Trump. As votes were still being, Dow futures were up, the U.S. dollar was strengthening and international markets were mixed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had surged about 2.9% by 6 a.m. in New York, having risen briskly from the 1.7% gain they had logged when former President Donald Trump took the stage in Florida at about 2 a.m.
S&P 500 futures traded up about 2.2% early Wednesday, while futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq market were up about 1.7%. Shares of Tesla, the electric-vehicle company headed by Trump ally Elon Musk, spiked about 14.5% in pre-market trades.
Trump owns a 57% stake in the Trump Media, which trades under the DJT ticker and is the parent of social media startup Truth Social. The company late Tuesday reported its third quarterly loss since going public in March.
Markets in the U.S. had surged on Tuesday, led by the Nasdaq's 1.4% rise.
As Trump walked onto the stage in Florida early Wednesday, the dollar was strengthening. The U.S. Dollar Index traded up about 1.4% at 104.75, touching a level it hadn't seen since early August. Yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds had also climbed overnight.
Trading in Asia was mixed Wednesday as international markets digested the election results. Japan's Nikkei closed up 2.61% for the day, while Shanghai closed nearly flat, slipping just 0.09%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell, dropping 2.23% by the close after opening below Tuesday's close.
The United Kingdom's FTSE 100 Index climbed early Wednesday, rising about 1.43% moments after open. Germany's DAX saw a similar rise, climbing about 1.3% in morning trading.
Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia won reelection to a U.S. House seat representing Texas on Tuesday. Garcia won her fourth term in the Houston district. One of the first two Latinas to serve in Congress from Texas, the attorney was selected as one of the House impeachment managers in the first attempt to remove Donald Trump from office. She has advocated granting citizenship to migrants who were illegally brought into the United States as children. She serves on the Financial Services Committee and is the whip for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. The Associated Press declared Garcia the winner at 11:19 p.m. EST.