Today is
Sunday July 19, 2026
NEW YORK (AP) — More swings for computer chip companies and other winners of the artificial-intelligence boom are yanking stock markets lower Friday. Oil prices, meanwhile, continue to climb because of the war with Iran.
The S&P 500 fell 0.7% after dropping as much as 1.4% in the morning. It’s on track for its first losing week in the last three and only its third since March, just a couple days after it climbed within 0.5% of its all-time high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 13 points, or less than 0.1%, as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, after veering between an early loss of 566 points and a modest gain. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.4%.
Chip stocks once again were at the center of the shakiness. They’ve been under pressure for weeks on worries that their prices shot too high and that voracious demand for computer memory and processors may be unsustainable if AI ends up producing less profit and productivity than promised.
Applied Materials sank 3.6% to trim its surge for the year so far below 108%. Micron Technology swung between a loss of 5.8% and a gain of 3.2% before adding 0.2%.
Earlier in the morning, tech sold off worldwide. Indexes tumbled 6.5% in Taipei, 4% in Tokyo and 3% in Shanghai as stocks like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. dropped 7.3%.
South Korea’s stock market was closed for a holiday, offering some respite, if only temporary. It’s been at the center of the AI swings because it’s dominated by two huge tech companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This past week alone, Seoul’s Kospi stock index had one day where it surged 6.2% and two others where it sank 6.4% and 8.9%.
News of a Chinese open-sourced AI model by startup Moonshot, Kimi K3, further shook markets. Similar to when China’s DeepSeek announced its AI model in early 2025, another low-cost rival to big Western AI models like ChatGPT and OpenAI could potentially hurt demand for computer chips and other components.
European stock indexes, which have less of an emphasis on AI and tech, had milder moves.
Adding to the pressure on Wall Street Friday were drops for several stocks following their latest earnings reports. It’s a departure from much of the rest of the week, when companies like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock jumped after delivering better profits for the spring than analysts expected.
Netflix sank 7.7% after its revenue for the latest quarter fell just short of analysts’ expectations, even though its profit was bigger than expected. Its forecasts for upcoming revenue and profit in the summer also fell below expectations.
Intuitive Surgical, a maker of robotic surgical systems, dropped 12.5% despite topping expectations for the latest quarter. Analysts pointed to worries about slowing procedure growth because of the expiration of enhanced tax credits that helped lower the cost of health insurance for many Affordable Care Act enrollees.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX fell 5.1% and touched its lowest level since its stock began trading on the Nasdaq just over a month ago. The owner of the xAI business has been swept up in the swings of AI stocks, and it had to abort a test flight of its mega Starship rocket Thursday within a second or so from blasting off.
More climbs for oil prices also pressured the stock market.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, rose 2.5% to $86.34, up from roughly $76 a week ago.
The United States expanded its airstrike campaign against Iran early Friday by hitting more bridges and collapsing a tower at a key Iranian port. That raised further worries about whether oil tankers will be able to use the Strait of Hormuz to carry crude from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide.
High oil prices have sent Treasury yields upward in the bond market, which threaten to slow the economy and undercut prices for stocks and all kinds of other investments. Higher yields have already sent the average 30-year mortgage rate to its highest level in nearly a year.
But Treasury yields eased Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.53% from 4.57% late Thursday.
A report suggested sentiment among U.S. consumers is improving more than economists expected, while expectations for upcoming inflation eased. That’s important for the Federal Reserve, which is considering hikes to interest rates to keep a lid on inflation. If expectations for inflation remain anchored, it could prevent a vicious cycle where people make moves in anticipation of higher inflation, which only worsen it.
The preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s survey for U.S. consumer sentiment hit its highest reading since February. But much of the rise was due to recent drops for prices at gasoline pumps, according to Joanne Hsu, director of the survey. If gasoline prices rise again because of crude’s recent rally, the improvement could be under pressure.
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Billionaire Warren Buffett said Wednesday that his decision to cut the Gates Foundation out of his charitable giving is more about believing his three kids are ready to handle giving away his entire fortune than it is about Bill Gates ‘ ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Buffett told CNBC that Gates’ association with Epstein was “distasteful,” but the 95-year-old investor suggested that Gates’ actions weren’t much different from mistakes he himself had made over the years in hiring the wrong person or in choosing friends.
“No one bats a thousand in the business of choosing people,” Buffett said on CNBC.
Buffett read up on Gates’ ties to Epstein
Buffett said he “read a great deal since Jan. 1 in terms of what happened with Bill and Epstein. And I have read his remarks to Congress given under oath, and I read the cross-examination.” He noted that Gates eventually ended his relationship with Epstein.
Buffett said Gates wasn’t surprised by the decision Buffett announced Tuesday to eventually donate all the rest of his $140 billion of Berkshire Hathaway stock to foundations associated with his family and his three children, Howard, Susie and Peter. Gates flew to Omaha a few weeks ago and spent several hours talking with Buffett. The two hadn’t spoken much since before additional details about Gates and Epstein started to come out when the federal government began releasing files from the Epstein investigation.
Gates has said that he only met with Epstein because he thought it might help him raise money for charitable causes, and he didn’t know about Epstein’s ongoing crimes.
Epstein, who was accused of sexually abusing dozens of underage girls, was found dead at the Manhattan federal lockup in August 2019. His death was later ruled a suicide by New York City’s medical examiner.
Gates called Buffett “one of the greatest philanthropists of all time, and a dear friend” who he hopes to spend much more time with in the future.
“His wisdom, generosity, and deep sense of purpose have defined both his life and his philanthropy. His support for the Gates Foundation, at nearly $50 billion over the past twenty years, has been unprecedented, and it has helped save millions of lives,” Gates said in a statement.
Buffett said in 2024 that he planned to cut off donations to the Gates Foundation after he died and let his three children decide how to distribute the rest of his fortune.
The Gates Foundation will still have tremendous resources: its endowment was worth nearly $90 billion at the end of last year and Gates has promised to donate nearly all his remaining fortune to the foundation.
In other news from the CNBC interview, Buffett revealed that he recently broke his leg and underwent surgery for it, but he said he is recovering well.
Drastically increasing donations to give away his fortune by 2034
Buffett said he wants his own Berkshire shares to be distributed even quicker than he has previously indicated: by the end of 2034. To do that, he will have to drastically increase the amount he donates every year, to more than $17 billion annually.
Right now he is giving roughly $6 billion to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and the foundations his children run: the Sherwood Foundation, the Howard G. Buffett Foundation and the Novo Foundation. Buffett filed documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday afternoon that showed he had donated a total of 12 million Class B Berkshire shares a day earlier to those foundations.
The majority of that is going to the foundation named in honor of his late wife, which may quickly become one of the world’s largest such organizations. Buffett also traditionally gives additional gifts to his family foundations around Thanksgiving each year.
He has said that after his death, a new foundation will be created to distribute the rest of his shares and that his children will have to agree unanimously on where to donate them. He wants his children to be able to make those decisions before they die or become senile, and his oldest daughter will be nearly 81 in eight years.
Buffett’s donations may affect his successor’s support
The accelerated pace of Buffett’s plan to give away his fortune over the next eight years rather than doing it over the 10 years following his death will mean that his successor at Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, won’t be able to count on the support of Buffett’s family as the company’s biggest shareholder for as long as he thought. Buffett currently controls nearly 30% of the voting power with his 188,290 Class A shares.
Nevertheless, Buffett said he believes it’s clear that Abel is the right man to lead the conglomerate he built, and “that becomes more evident by the day.”
However, Buffett did note that Berkshire’s big investment in Google’s parent company, which has grown in value considerably over the past year, is one he initiated and not an investment Abel picked, though Abel did agree on it. Just last month, Berkshire agreed to invest another $10 billion in Alphabet after previously tripling its stake in the company. ___ A previous version of this story misspelled Warren Buffett’s last name in the headline.
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks and oil prices are drifting toward a quiet finish of the week Friday following their earlier fireworks on worries about how the war with Iran will affect the global flow of crude.
The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged in midday trading and on track to close out its fourth winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 101 points, or 0.2%, as of 11:45 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.2% lower.
Oil prices eased following earlier fluctuations as a series of unclaimed airstrikes hit Iran after the United States said it finished its attacks. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international standard, fell 0.9% to $75.63.
That’s above its $72 price from the start of the week, but it’s still well below its wartime peak of nearly $120. The worry is that continued fighting could block oil tankers from the Strait of Hormuz and prevent the delivery of crude from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide.
President Donald Trump said on his social-media platform that he agreed to continue talks with Iran but also that the United States told it “in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”
With the wait ongoing for what will happen next with the strait, some of the strongest action on Wall Street was for the U.S. trading debut of a South Korean tech giant, SK Hynix.
The chip company raised roughly $26.5 billion by selling American depositary shares at a price of $149 each. That price jumped immediately after the ADRs began to trade on the Nasdaq in the midday hours, and it was most recently up 13.4%.
SK Hynix’s stock in Seoul has already surged 634% over the last year thanks to euphoria around artificial-intelligence technology. The boom has created real profits thanks to surging demand for computer memory. But it’s also raised worries that AI stock prices have shot too high and that all the world’s spending on chips and data centers won’t be able to produce enough productivity and profit growth to make it worth it.
Beyond the sharp recent swings for AI stocks, the focus on Wall Street is shifting to the upcoming reporting season for companies’ profits during the spring.
Delta Air Lines said it was able to absorb higher fuel prices from April through June because of strong demand from customers to fly, including a wide range of corporate travelers. Its profit and revenue topped analysts’ expectations, and it gave a forecasted range for profit in the summer whose midpoint was above analysts’ expectations.
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Delta’s stock fell 2.2%, though, after coming into the day with a strong 28.2% rise for the year so far.
Companies across industries will need to produce big growth in profits to justify the big moves for their stock prices, which are broadly near records. Next week will feature earnings reports from many of the biggest U.S. banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo on Tuesday alone.
Eleswhere on Wall Street, Circle Internet Group rose 5.9%. The company behind the USDC cryptocurrency, which is supposed to keep the value of $1, said it won U.S. regulatory approval to establish a bank. It will operate under the name Circle National Trust, and CEO Jeremy Allaire said the move “marks a defining step in bringing blockchain technology and digital assets into the core of the U.S. financial system.”
WD-40’s stock jumped 10.7% after reporting much stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady as oil prices drifted. The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained at 4.55%, where it was late Thursday.
High yields have shaken financial markets worldwide recently. They’ve climbed on worries about expensive oil and high inflation, which could push the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates.
Higher rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow the economy and hurt prices for all kinds of investments.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% for two of the world’s bigger moves. Stocks fell 1% in Shanghai.
(NEW YORK) -- Oil prices climbed and stocks closed lower on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he believes an agreement with Iran is "over" amid an exchange of strikes in the Middle East.
Brent crude, the benchmark measure for worldwide oil trading, climbed more than 6% on Wednesday, pushing the price up to about $79 a barrel.
Oil prices stand above pre-war levels, though they have fallen from a high of as much as $118 reached earlier in the conflict.
Stock prices fell in response to the heightened tensions and rising oil prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 575 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.2%.
The war prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that facilitates about one-fifth of worldwide oil supply. In turn, the global economy suffered a historic oil shock, sending oil prices surging.
A U.S.-Iran agreement last month, however, included a provision allowing commercial shipping to resume through the strait, and to do so toll-free for 60 days. Over the ensuing weeks, oil prices prices fell below pre-war levels.
The tensions in recent days rekindled upward pressure on oil prices.
Trump said that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will continue, but he told reporters of the agreement, "For me, I think it's over."
"It's just a waste of time dealing with them," Trump said of Iran at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, where he is attending the NATO summit.
Iran's military said it launched on Wednesday attacks targeting 85 U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, saying they were retaliatory strikes following a wave of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets.
U.S. forces hit over 80 targets overnight in a new round of airstrikes that came as an "immediate response" to Iran's attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command.
ABC News' Joe Simonetti contributed to this report.
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(NEW YORK) -- A heat wave blanketed a vast swathe of the United States over the 4th of July weekend, threatening the health of tens of millions of people and the power supply for thousands of homes.
A lesser-known risk of extreme heat, meanwhile, may hammer pocketbooks.
Heat waves threaten an array of costs for the economy, sapping the productivity of outdoor workers, shutting some shoppers inside their homes and driving up utility payments, some analysts told ABC News. All in all, they added, those effects could shrink output and hike some costs in areas impacted by heat waves.
"Extreme heat has economic consequences," Justin Mankin, a professor of geography at Dartmouth University, told ABC News. "The consequences seem to be negative just about everywhere."
Heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and longer lasting due to human-amplified climate change, according to the federal government's Fifth National Climate Assessment. The average number of heat waves in major U.S. cities each year has doubled since the 1980s, that report said.
Extreme heat is considered the deadliest weather-related hazard in the U.S., according to the National Weather Service. About 2,000 Americans die each year on average from extreme heat, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted.
A body of research indicates that heat waves also risk damage for the economy.
A study issued last year by researchers at the University of Florida, the European Stability Mechanism and the International Monetary Fund -- which examined 203 countries over a 40-year period -- found that an increased frequency of high temperatures and harsh droughts resulted in a 0.2% decline in gross domestic product (GDP).
Another report found total heat-related economic losses in the trillions of dollars. Taken together, economic damage from human-caused extreme heat likely cost as much as $50 trillion worldwide over a recent 30-year period, according to a 2022 study from Dartmouth University researchers.
"These things are costly and they're getting worse because of climate change," said Mankin, a co-author of the study.
The reasons for the economic impact range from diminished employee productivity to heightened utility costs to lost agricultural output, some analysts said.
Berkay Akyapi, a professor of business at the University of Florida and a co-author of the study on lost GDP, pointed to the crop damage caused by a heightened number of heat waves.
Nighttime temperature spikes are especially damaging, Akyapi said, since they deny crops a respite during a time period typically reserved for cooler temperatures. Fewer crops, in turn, threaten to elevate prices as the same number of dollars chase after a smaller supply of goods, he added.
A decline in domestic crop output can also force a given country to increase imports, putting further upward pressure on prices, Akyapi noted.
"If you can't produce something, you have to import it and that of course raises prices," he said.
Heat waves also cause higher prices for utilities as demand grows for air conditioning and other power-driven solutions, some analysts said.
The budget woes, in turn, cause a chain reaction, squeezing funds left over for other products and sapping consumer-driven economic activity. Steven Brown, a director of insights and evidence at the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program, told ABC News.
"It results in higher bills for households that are already financially tight or strained," Brown said. "It causes a spillover in their ability to pay for other things like groceries or rent."
In 2023, a report issued by a U.S. Senate committee found the negative economic effects from extreme heat are most pronounced in heat-exposed sectors such as agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing and transportation. The risk owes primarily to lost productivity among workers in such industries, the report said.
"Together, the loss of productivity caused by heat is emerging as one of the biggest economic costs of climate change," the report added.
To be sure, analysts noted that some cold-weather locations may benefit from heat waves, since higher-than-normal temperatures could improve agricultural output or allow for increased time spent outdoors.
"When you look around the world at places like Canada, Sweden or Norway -- they can benefit. Heat waves are kind of good weather there," Akyapi said.
Adaptive efforts, such as installation of air conditioning, can mitigate some of the negative economic effects, some analysts noted. Some governments are also exploring administrative solutions meant to help fight extreme heat.
Arizona appointed Eugene Livar as its first chief heat officer in 2024, tasking him with oversight of the state's extreme heat preparedness plan. Democratic lawmakers in Arizona and Nevada introduced a bill in Congress last year that would add extreme heat to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's list of major disaster qualifying events, unlocking access to federal support.
"Government interventions probably reduce some of the costs associated with these events, despite being costly interventions themselves," Akyapi said.
Dartmouth's Mankin said he expects heat waves to remain a feature of everyday life for the foreseeable future as human-caused climate change continues.
"These kinds of heat events are just going to be more commonplace. You'll just have more days of the year that look like this, particularly when each subsequent year is hotter than the last," Mankin said.
ABC News' Kenton Gewecke and Emily Shapiro contributed to this report.
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(NEW YORK) -- Elon Musk-led rocket and AI company SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, clearing the way for a potential influx of investment as funds pegged to the major index were expected to add the firm.
SpaceX will all but certainly become a part of many individuals’ 401(k) accounts soon. Those accounts often hold index funds, which track indexes like the Nasdaq 100.
Until recently, newly listed companies were barred from major indexes until after an extended waiting period. But the Nasdaq issued a rule change in May permitting "fast entry" to the Nasdaq-100 for some major IPOs. Over the ensuing weeks, some other top exchanges also tweaked their rules.
Entry into the index marked the latest development for SpaceX after a roller coaster in the company's shares following an initial public offering (IPO) last month. The stock price soared roughly 50% in the initial three days after the public listing on June 12, before shedding just about all of those gains within days.
SpaceX shares dropped nearly 6% in early trading on Tuesday, putting the price at about $151. The SpaceX IPO, the largest ever, opened trading last month at $150 per share.
The IPO made Musk the first trillionaire, vaulting the world’s richest person further ahead of other financial titans. After SpaceX shares tumbled on Tuesday, Musk's net worth fell to $973 billion, according to Forbes. The second-wealthiest person alive, Google founder Larry Page, holds a net worth of $303 billion, Forbes said.
The IPO pulls in fresh funds for the Texas-based firm, which oversees Musk's ambitions in the fast-growing but cost-intensive AI industry. The company aims to raise as much as $75 billion from its public listing.
SpaceX builds and operates spacecraft, including thousands of satellites deployed in support of its Starlink satellite internet service. In February, the company merged with xAI, a Musk-led AI company that offers a chatbot in competition with the likes of OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude.
The company’s revenue jumped to $18.7 billion in 2025, soaring 33% compared to the previous year, a financial filing showed. Nearly a quarter of that revenue came from Starlink, which counted millions of subscribers. Still, SpaceX failed to turn a profit, registering a loss of $4.9 billion last year.
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(NEW YORK) -- Microsoft said on Monday it will lay off 4,800 employees and that the job cuts would be especially pronounced in its Xbox department.
The layoffs will affect 2.1% of Microsoft's global workforce, Amy Coleman, executive vice president and chief people officer, said in a public memo to employees.
Coleman attributed the layoffs in part to a shakeup in the tech sector wrought by artificial intelligence. None of the terminated roles will be replaced by AI, Coleman noted. At the same time, she acknowledged: "AI is changing how work gets done."
"Our business is changing because the world around it is changing. The way technology is built, deployed, and used is transforming faster than at any point in my time here," Coleman said.
In a separate statement, Microsoft said a large share of the job cuts would impact its Xbox department, which oversees the company's popular video game console.
In all, Xbox would slash 1,600 jobs as part of the layoffs announced on Monday, as well as an additional 1,600 cuts through the end of fiscal year 2027, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma said in a public memo to employees.
"We are beginning the most significant restructure in XBOX history," Sharma said, adding, "Our business today is not healthy."
Sharma pointed to weaker-than-expected performance for Xbox's subscription service, Game Pass, which charges a monthly fee for access to a collection of games. The company faced stiff competition in its efforts to increase output of new games, Sharma added.
"We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios," Sharma said.
Xbox will not cancel any of its first-party, publicly announced games or projects as part of the new plans, Sharma said.
Shares of Microsoft fell about 1% in early trading on Monday.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Most U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to another record, but more drops for computer chip companies and other winners of the artificial-intelligence boom kept indexes mixed.
The S&P 500 finished the day virtually unchanged and edged up by less than 0.1%, even though seven out of every 10 stocks within the index rose. The Dow jumped 594 points, or 1.1%, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8% after erasing an early gain.
Stocks broadly got some help from a report showing that U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs to their payrolls last month. That’s growth, which is good for the economy, but it was also short of the 100,000 jobs that economists expected and a slowdown from May’s hiring pace.
The bright side of the weaker-than-expected result is that it could keep pressure off inflation, which has been accelerating worldwide because of jumps in oil prices caused by the war with Iran. And now that oil prices are back below where they were before the war, if inflation slows in upcoming months, the Federal Reserve may feel less need to raise interest rates several times this year.
That would be a relief for investors, who tend to love lower interest rates because they can give the economy a boost by making it less expensive for U.S. households and businesses to borrow money and spend. Lower rates also tend to push upward on prices for stocks and other investments.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury got to 4.50% in the morning, up from 3.97% just before the war. But after the release of the U.S. hiring data, it immediately fell back to 4.46% before drifting to 4.48%.
Traders now see an 82% chance that the Fed and its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, will not raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting later this month. That’s up from the 71% chance seen a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.
“The labor market isn’t overheating,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management. He said the data could allow the Fed to wait through the summer to get more clues about how inflation is behaving before having to decide on hiking rates.
On Wall Street, the company behind LaCroix sparkling waters climbed 7.5% after National Beverage said it will pay a special dividend of $3.25 for each share that investors hold.
Dollar Tree rose 2.4% after the retailer said it approved a program to send up to $2.5 billion to its shareholders by buying back its stock.
Stocks of companies in the crypto industry were also strong after the price of bitcoin rose roughly 2%, a day after dropping near its lowest level since 2024. Robinhood Markets rose 3.8%, and Coinbase Global gained 3.9%.
But more drops for computer chip companies weighed on indexes. They’ve come under pressure because of worries that their stock prices shot too high in the frenzy around AI and that all the spending on chips and data centers may not result in as much profit and productivity growth as hoped.
Memory maker Micron Technology erased an early gain to drop 5.5%, a day after plunging 10.6%. Nvidia fell 1.4%, and Lam Research sank 10.2%. They were some of the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 because they’ve grown so huge in size amid AI mania.
Nvidia has a total value of nearly $4.7 trillion, for example, which means that its stock’s movements have more weight on the S&P 500 than any other.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 0.01 to 7,483.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 594.83 to 52,900.07, and the Nasdaq composite sank 207.36 to 25,382.67.
In stock markets abroad, continued drops for chip companies sent indexes sharply lower in several Asian markets. South Korea’s Kospi index sank 7.9% due to losses for companies like SK Hynix. That’s its worst drop since a 10% plunge a little more than a week ago.
Indexes also fell 2.5% in Tokyo and 2% in Shanghai.
European indexes were stronger, and France’s CAC 40 rallied 1.7%.
In the oil market, prices dropped in the morning but pared their losses as the day progressed. Brent crude, the international standard, settled at $71.80 per barrel, up 0.3%.
(NEW YORK) -- Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May as negotiations between the United States and Iran ease financial markets.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.43%, down from last week's rate of 6.49%, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.
Still, mortgage rates register above their level before the war with Iran. Prior to the Middle East conflict in late February, a 30-year fixed mortgage clocked in at an average just below 6%.
“Rates did drop, which does provide some relief. But they’re still high,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.
A decline in mortgage rates over recent weeks has come in response to a drop in oil prices and Treasury yields, some analysts told ABC News. The shift has partially reversed a trend that took hold after the Iran war broke out.
At that time, mortgage rates surged in response to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, or the amount paid annually to a holder of government debt. The rise in bond yields is owed to fear of a renewed bout of inflation as oil prices climbed.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages.
Bond yields eased in recent weeks as negotiations unfolded between the U.S. and Iran, pushing down oil prices and softening inflation expectations, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. In turn, Johnson said, mortgage rates have fallen.
“The big driver has been the cooling of tensions in the Gulf,” Johnson told ABC News.
Despite the recent drop, mortgage rates remain higher than their pre-war level. Even more, mortgage rates stand well above their level as recently as 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage came in below 5%.
Elevated mortgage rates have contributed to a phenomenon known as the "lock-in" effect.
Mortgage rates remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.
“Rates are still pretty high relative to what they were a few years ago, but every drop in mortgage rates helps. This is not going to go all the way toward unlocking people. We might see this gradual unlocking as time goes by and as rates tick down,” Fonseca said.
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(NEW YORK) -- Hiring slowed markedly in June, falling short of economists' expectations and displaying a wobbly labor market amid elevated inflation set off by the Iran war.
The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report, which marked a decline from 172,000 jobs added in May.
The sluggish pace recorded in June departs from strong performance for the labor market so far in 2026. Employers added a robust average of about 114,000 jobs each month from January to May, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.3% in May to 4.2% in June, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
The professional and business services sector led job gains, adding 36,000 positions in June. Significant job gains also came in healthcare, though the pace of job growth slowed in that sector.
Hiring had proven unexpectedly resilient, despite a rise in costs borne by businesses and shoppers.
The Middle East conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.
The pace of annual inflation stands at 4.2%, clocking in at more than twice the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The combination of elevated inflation and a resilient labor market has raised the chances of an interest rate hike, futures markets show, posing a risk for corporations eager to keep borrowing costs relatively low.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh briefly sent stocks tumbling this month during his first press conference atop the central bank. Warsh voiced a commitment to bringing inflation down to the Fed's desired level.
"Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people," Warsh told reporters in Washington, D.C. "This committee will deliver price stability."
Futures markets peg the odds of an interest rate hike in September at about 64%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
To be sure, the path forward for interest rates remains highly uncertain. Oil and gasoline prices have eased in recent weeks in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, offering hope of a cooldown of inflation in the absence of rate increases.
On Wednesday, Warsh weighed in on the bullish side of an ongoing debate among policymakers, investors and the general public about the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.
The technology could create jobs and boost productivity, strengthening the economy of the U.S. and other nations, according to Warsh.
"This is a big paradigm shift both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies," Warsh said. "I think the jobs will be greater. Prosperity will be stronger."
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(NEW YORK) -- The Social Security fund will run out of money in as little as six years, a shorter time frame than previously estimated, according to a report released earlier this month by the programs' trustees.
News of the funding cliff prompted a pair of lawmakers to reach across the aisle and propose a rescue plan in an opinion piece last week for the New York Times.
Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called for lifting a cap on the amount of annual income subject to the payroll tax that funds Social Security. Currently, the cap stands at $184,500.
In other words, the plan would require individuals making more than $184,500 per year to pay taxes on the entirety of their income, potentially generating trillions in additional funds for the program over the next 10 years.
The proposal could, in theory, help administrators avoid painful solutions for recipients, such as a reduction of Social Security payments.
Legislation reflecting the proposal has not been introduced. In the New York Times, Moreno and Warren said they are "working on legislation." Spokespeople for Moreno and Warren declined to comment on the status of the measure.
Here's what to know about a new bipartisan proposal for safeguarding Social Security:
Is Social Security in financial trouble?
Yes, the program faces an ever-tightening budget squeeze over the next handful of years, according to a report this month from the Social Security fund's trustees.
The Social Security trust fund will run dry in 2032, unless Congress combines the program's old-age and disability funds, in which case insolvency would arrive in 2034, the report found. A finding last year from the program's trustees predicted Social Security would become insolvent in 2033 or 2034.
The program generates revenue through a payroll tax paid by employees and employers, setting the income apart from the overall federal budget. Since the early 2010s, however, Social Security has paid more in benefits than it takes in through taxes, shrinking the program's available funds, according to a study issued by the Urban Institute earlier this year.
The budget shortfall has been exacerbated by a decline in births and a reduction of immigration, resulting in fewer taxpayers at the same time that many Baby Boomers have begun receiving benefits. The One Big Beautiful Bill also removed a tax on Social Security benefits, depleting another source of the program's revenue.
What is the Social Security reform proposal from Warren and Moreno?
The bipartisan reform proposal would tweak the payroll tax that funds Social Security.
The program is funded by a 12.4% payroll tax, which is evenly split between employers and workers. The tax, however, applies only to a maximum of $184,500 in annual income, meaning any income beyond that amount remains tax free.
The proposal put forward by Warren and Moreno would lift the cap on taxable income, allowing the tax to apply to the entirety of a person's income even if they make more than $184,500 per year.
"Since the vast majority of Americans make less than that, most people are paying Social Security taxes on 100 percent of their earnings while the highest earners are paying on only part of theirs," Warren and Moreno said in a co-authored opinion piece in the New York Times.
The elimination of the cap on taxable income would generate about $3.4 trillion in added revenue over the next decade, according to an analysis from the non-partisan Peterson Institute. The policy change would close more than half of the program's funding gap, the group said.
"With rising prices and artificial intelligence causing economic uncertainty for the future, Social Security must remain a stable foundation to help retirees afford life's basic necessities," Warren and Moreno said.
The proposal drew opposition from at least one conservative lawmaker. Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, faulted the plan for what he described as a "giant tax increase."
"We need to secure social security, we need to protect it, we need to make it stronger," Husted told “The Guy Benson Show" last week. "But I'm not on board with the approach that they've outlined."
What are some alternative reforms for funding Social Security?
As the program's budget woes have deepened in recent years, elected officials and researchers have proposed a range of solutions. As with any financial shortfall, the fixes either increase revenue or slash expenses.
An alternate means of increasing tax revenue for the program involves ratcheting up the payroll tax by one percentage point from 12.4% to 13.4%, the Peterson Institute said. That move would generate $601 billion in additional revenue over 10 years, closing about a quarter of the program's funding gap, the group added.
If Congress fails to address the projected budget shortfalls, automatic cuts will dial back Social Security benefits by about 25% in 2032, the Social Security fund's trustees said earlier this month.
Earlier this month, a bipartisan bill introduced in the House proposed establishing an independent commission composed of 13 members appointed by leaders in Congress and the president. The commission would seek out fixes for the long-term sustainability of the program. The bill, which counts three cosponsors, has been appointed to two House committees for consideration.
As the years pass, the task of reforming Social Security becomes a greater and greater challenge, the Urban Institute said.
"Waiting only makes the changes larger and more difficult," the group added.
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(NEW YORK) -- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday voiced optimism about artificial intelligence, describing the technology as a "paradigm shift" that would likely make the United States a "big winner in the medium-term."
"We are in the first or second inning of this revolution," Warsh said in Sintra, Portugal, at a conference organized by the European Central Bank.
Warsh, who took the helm of the Fed last month, weighed in on the bullish side of an ongoing debate among policymakers, investors and the general public about the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.
The technology could create jobs and boost productivity, strengthening the economy of the U.S. and other nations, according to Warsh.
"This is a big paradigm shift both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies," Warsh said. "I think the jobs will be greater. Prosperity will be stronger."
Business investment in AI has helped drive recent U.S. economic growth, some studies show.
A surge of AI spending accounted for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product growth over the first half of 2025, JPMorgan Asset Management found, outpacing the contribution made by hundreds of millions of U.S. consumers. Many of the nation's largest companies have poured funds into the chips and data centers necessary to operate AI.
AI chipmakers, meanwhile, have helped deliver stock market gains this year, allowing the major indexes to overcome a lackluster stretch for many of the tech giants that previously lifted markets.
Shares of fast-rising AI chipmakers have boosted major indexes. Micron has soared 265% in value this year. Sandisk has climbed a staggering 750% over that period.
For now, however, AI has failed to achieve gains on a scale near its immense costs, some analysts previously told ABC News. A product like AI would typically generate revenue in the form of sales either direct to consumers or to third-party businesses using the technology to enhance their offerings. AI has faced challenges on both fronts, some analysts said.
Speaking on Wednesday, Warsh signaled that he expects a shift in sentiment among businesses regarding the impact of AI.
"While we might see business surveys that say 'no big deal,' my speculation is six months from now the surveys will be saying quite the opposite," Warsh said.
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(NEW YORK) -- A trio of progressive Democrats sharply criticized billionaires on their way to victory in House primaries in New York City.
The clean sweep for candidates endorsed by far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Tuesday drew attention to economic populism as affordability remains a top issue for voters ahead of the midterm elections.
In Manhattan and Brooklyn's 10th District, incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman lost in a landslide to former comptroller Brad Lander, who vowed to "put working people first – not billionaires."
Darializa Avila Chevalier, a community organizer, defeated incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat in New York's 13th District, which covers upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Claire Valdez, a one-term state assemblymember, beat Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the primary race for New York's 7th District.
Valdez and Chevalier, both of whom are democratic socialists, called for a four-day work week and a pause in the construction of AI data centers, among other measures.
To be sure, center-leaning candidates won Democratic primaries on Tuesday in upstate New York and Utah. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who are both Democrats, won general elections last year with moderate campaigns touting their own plans to ease price woes.
Here's what to know about economic proposals put forward by Lander, Chevalier and Valdez:
Tax on billionaires
All three of the victorious progressive House candidates support a tax on wealthy individuals.
Lander "strongly supports" the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act, a bill proposed by Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren that would tax the net wealth of households with over $50 million, according to Lander's website.
Lander also backs an ultra-wealth tax on individuals worth over $1 billion, as well as the Equal Tax Act, which matches tax rates for capital gains and ordinary income over $1 million.
Chevalier supports the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act and the Equal Tax Act. Similarly, Valdez has voiced support for taxing billionaires as means of funding social programs.
The top opponents in each of the three primary races held similar positions. Both Espaillat and Goldman had signed on to the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act and the Equal Tax Act. Reynoso said he would "fight to tax the rich – a lot."
Proponents say wealth taxes could raise tax revenue from affluent Americans in a position to spare funds. Critics, on the other hand, warn wealthy individuals may move assets abroad or prove less likely to start businesses or other ventures.
For his part, Mamdani sought a two-percentage-point tax increase for residents making more than $1 million, which would have raised the tax rate for high earners in New York City from roughly 3.9% to 5.9%.
Instead, New York enacted a tax on second homes in New York City valued at $1 million or more.
Pause on construction of AI data centers
All three progressive House candidates back a moratorium on the construction of AI data centers.
Many of the nation's largest companies have poured funds into the chips and data centers necessary to operate AI.
The data center projects have drawn ire from critics who say they drive up residential water and electricity bills in some areas, while offering limited job gains. Proponents of the sector point to its role in fueling economic growth and ensuring the competitiveness of U.S. tech firms.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y, have proposed the AI Data Center Moratorium Act, which would pause the development of data centers until the federal government imposes industry regulations.
Goldman, Lander's opponent, signed onto the AI Data Center Moratorium Act. By contrast, Espaillat – Chevalier's opponent – has not supported the bill. Reynoso's position on a data center moratorium could not be immediately found.
On her campaign website, Valdez said she would "fight to hold major technology corporations accountable, protect our workforce from the harms of AI, and ensure that new technologies benefit communities, not just corporate executives."
Four-day work week
Chevalier and Valdez support shifting from a standard workweek of 40 hours spread across five days to one lasting 32 hours across four days.
Such an approach, Valdez says, would reclaim the "economic gains of automation for workers."
Spain, Iceland and South Africa are among the nations that have implemented a trial of the four-day workweek for select companies and workers.
In California and the U.S. House, lawmakers have introduced bills that would set the standard workweek at 32 hours.
The Thirty-Two Hour Workweek Act, introduced in the U.S. House in March 2023, garnered support from eight members. Neither Goldman nor Espaillat was among the backers.
Reynoso's position on a four-day workweek could not be immediately found, though last month he spoke in support of unionized Kickstart employees seeking a four-day workweek as part of their labor contract.
Some experts previously told ABC News that a combination of escalating market pressure and legislative activity could ultimately bring a nationwide four-day workweek standard; others said such an outcome would prove nearly impossible, at least anytime soon.
Labor law reform
The share of unionized workers has fallen nationwide in recent decades. All three of the New York City progressives say they want to reverse that.
Lander, Valdez and Chevalier each support the PRO Act, a labor law reform measure with strong backing among U.S. labor unions.
The legislation would ease the path toward forming unions and winning labor contracts. The latest version of the bill, known as the Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize Act, boasts the support of 215 House members, including at least one Republican.
Both Goldman and Espaillat signed onto the PRO Act. Reynoso, meanwhile, vowed to "champion the PRO Act."
On her campaign website, Chevalier calls for passage of the PRO Act, so that "everyone who wants a union can form one."
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Oil prices slipped closer to where they were before the war with Iran began.
Qualcomm’s share price surged nearly 7% in afterhours trading after the company announced it had raised its forecast for revenue this year to $40 billion from $22 billion. It also announced a new computer chip for data centers called Dragonfly C1000 CPU that Meta plans to use.
Micron Technology’s shares jumped 18.5% in afterhours trading after it upgraded its forecast and exceeded analysts’ estimates.
The future for the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher.
Germany’s DAX advanced 0.5% to 24,859.99. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.2% to 8,398.21 and Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.1% to 10,473.69.
In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index surged 4.6% to a record close of 72,366.34 as traders snapped up shares in technology companies. Chipmaker Tokyo Electron’s shares gained 7.8%, while chip testing equipment maker Advantest’s shares soared 15%.
South Korea’s benchmark, the Kospi, hit a new record, surging 5.4% to 8,930.30 after briefly topping 9,000. Samsung Electronics’ shares gained 5.3% and SK Hynix leaped 13%.
Elsewhere in Asia, gains were more modest.
Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 0.5% and the Sensex in India was up 0.7%.
The Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.2% to 4,120.28, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.4% to 23,090.27.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.7% to 8,748.70.
On Wednesday, stocks wavered to a mixed close on Wall Street as losses for several tech giants including Microsoft weighed on the market. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is less weighted with tech stocks, rose 10.4%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 0.4%.
Microsoft lost 2.3% and Oracle slumped 4.6%.
Many large tech companies have been behind Wall Street’s record-setting run throughout the year, but analysts have warned their valuations may have become stretched.
Google’s parent company Alphabet slipped 0.2%. The company is replacing Verizon in the Dow on Monday. Its inclusion in the S&P 500 means more to investors, however, because 401(k) accounts are much more likely to include an S&P 500 index fund than anything tied to the Dow.
Alphabet will become the fifth Magnificent 7 tech company to join the Dow. The others are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia.
Oil companies had some of the biggest losses as prices fell while the U.S. and Iran negotiate a possible end to their war. Exxon Mobil fell 2% and Chevron lost 2.6%. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 3.8% to $73.87 a barrel. It has been trading below $80 in recent days but is still above the roughly $70 per barrel it was trading at in late February before the war began.
U.S. crude prices fell 3.9% to $70.34 a barrel.
Early Thursday, Brent was down 0.8% at $73.32 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark crude lost 0.5% to $69.88 a barrel.
Some of the bigger winners on Wall Street included homebuilders following approval of legislation beneficial to the industry. KB Home surged 16.7% and D.R. Horton jumped 6.7%.
The Federal Reserve will get an update on inflation later Thursday, when its preferred measure for prices is released. Economists expect the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, to show that prices rose 4.1% in May. That would be the highest level in three years.
Inflation has been rising as tariffs raise costs for many goods. It worsened as the war pushed energy and shipping prices higher and that impact is expected to linger even as oil and gasoline prices fall.
In other dealings early Thursday, the U.S. dollar rose to 161.81 Japanese yen from 161.79 yen. The euro rose to $1.1362 from $1.1359.
(NEW YORK) -- Global oil prices on Wednesday fell to their lowest level since before the outbreak of the Iran war.
Brent crude futures, the benchmark index for worldwide trading, dropped to $73.50 a barrel. That figure, which amounted to a nearly 5% decline on Wednesday, marked the lowest price since Feb. 27, the day before the Middle East conflict began.
Stock prices, meanwhile, ticked higher Wednesday after a down day Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 105 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 increased 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Gas prices fell below $4 per gallon last week, crossing the milestone as oil costs eased in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the war.
The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $3.92, marking a decline of 58 cents, or 13%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain 94 cents higher than where they stood before the Iran war.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.
Delegations from the United States and Iran arrived over the weekend at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, where they began negotiations aimed at a war-ending deal based on a memorandum of understanding signed last week by both countries.
The memorandum in part called on Iran to allow commercial shipping to resume through the strait, and to do so toll-free for the next 60 days.
In a social media post on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said Iran told him that there would be "no tolls, no insurance costs" and "no other charges of any kind" for ships traveling through the strait.
Claims to the contrary are "troublemaking" false reports, Trump said in the post.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Wednesday as falling bond yields and lower oil prices helped ease pressure on the market.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 432 points, or 0.8%, as of 11:03 a.m. Eastern. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.9%.
Technology stocks were gaining ground after two days of losses that weighed on the market. That helped push indexes higher as gains broadened out to other sectors, including retailers and industrial companies.
Apple rose 1%, Amazon jumped 3% and Caterpillar rose 1.6%.
Nvidia rose 0.6% following a 4.1% drop on Tuesday. Micron Technology, which reports its latest results later Wednesday, fell 0.4% following its 13.2% plunge on Tuesday.
Google’s parent company Alphabet rose 1.8%. The company is replacing Verizon in the Dow on Monday. Alphabet will become the fifth Magnificent 7 company to join the index. The others are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia.
Big Tech companies, especially those focused on artificial intelligence, have pricey values that give them more sway over the market’s broader direction. That was the case on Tuesday when sharp losses for a few valuable tech companies pulled the market lower.
Oil prices continued slipping as the U.S. and Iran negotiate a possible end to their war. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 4.2% to $73.58 a barrel. It has been trading below $80 in recent days but is still above the roughly $70 per barrel it was trading at in late February before the war began. U.S. crude prices fell 4.6% to $69.85 a barrel.
Oil companies lagged the market. Exxon Mobil fell 2.7% and Chevron lost 2.8%.
Some of the bigger winners on Wall Street included homebuilders following approval of legislation beneficial to the industry. KB Home surged 16.4% and D.R. Horton jumped 7.8%.
Treasury yields mostly fell, removing more pressure from stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.41% from 4.50% late Tuesday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury eased to 4.15% from 4.16%.
Treasury yields are still elevated from earlier in the year, especially the 2-year Treasury, which more closely tracks anticipated action from the Federal Reserve. The central bank has signaled that it is considering raising its benchmark interest rate by the end of the year. Wall Street is forecasting at least one hike to interest rates by December, according to data from CME Group.
The Fed is worried about stubborn inflation, which had been rising throughout the year as tariffs raised the costs for a wide range of goods. A shock to energy prices because of the U.S. war with Iran worsened inflation. Gasoline prices surged and shipping costs rose. The impact is expected to linger even as oil and gasoline prices fall.
The central bank will get a fresh update on inflation Thursday, when its preferred measure for prices is released. Economists expect it to show that prices rose 4.1% in May, which would be the highest level in three years.
Gold prices fell 3%, and at one point slipped below $4,000 an ounce. Gold was above $5,000 an ounce earlier in the year. The precious metal is often seen as a barometer of the appetite for risk among investors, with more buying at times of increased anxiety and more selling as anxiety eases.
Markets were mixed in Europe and Asia.
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks drifted through a mixed day of trading on Monday after oil prices eased and falling Big Tech stocks weighed on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, coming off its 11th winning week in the last 12, and pulled 1.8% below its all-time high set early this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 148 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite slumped 1.3%.
In the oil market, prices fell following talks over the weekend between the United States and Iran on their war. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said they created a “good foundation for a successful final deal.”
An end to the war could clear the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers and allow for the undisputed resumption of deliveries from the Persian Gulf. Iran’s military had said Saturday that it closed the Strait of Hormuz again, though U.S. Central Command has disputed that.
U.S. stocks are drifting near their records.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil fell 3.2% to $77.52, closer to its roughly $70 price from before the war. Benchmark U.S. crude oil fell 2.6% to $73.86 per barrel.
The lower oil prices, though, did not pull down Treasury yields in the bond market. Yields have been climbing because of speculation the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates this year to keep a lid on inflation, which has been accelerating because of expensive oil caused by the Iran war. Economists expect a report on Thursday to show a measure of inflation for U.S. consumers sped up to 4.1% in May from 3.8% in April.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.50% from 4.46% late Thursday and from just 3.97% before the war.
Traders are betting on a nearly 90% chance the Fed will raise its federal funds rate at least once by the end of the year, with a small minority calling for four increases. That’s up from the 57% chance seen just a week ago, according to data from CME Group.
High yields in bond markets worldwide caused by worries about inflation are threatening to slow economies, and they have already sent rates higher for mortgages and other kinds of loans. High yields also hurt prices for investments, particularly those seen as the most expensive. That raises the pressure on companies whose stock prices have soared in the mania around artificial-intelligence technology.
SpaceX fell 16.4% to $154.60. It’s the third straight drop for the company behind xAI since a big three-day run following its ballyhooed debut on the U.S. stock market, when it initially sold its stock at $135 per share.
The day’s heaviest weights on the S&P 500 included drops of 5% for Alphabet, 4.7% for Amazon and 4.5% for Broadcom.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, AbbVie climbed 6.2% after saying it agreed to buy Apogee Therapeutics and its potential treatments for patients with dermatologic, respiratory and other related inflammatory and immunological diseases.
Apogee Therapeutics soared 46.7% following the announcement of the deal, valued at roughly $10.9 billion.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 27.79 points to 7,472.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 148.01 to 51,712.71, and the Nasdaq composite fell 351.33 to 26,166.60.
In stock markets abroad, the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 rose 0.7% after Keir Starmer said he was stepping down as leader of the governing Labour Party and will leave office within weeks.
In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.5% and ended at another all-time high, led by AI stocks. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7% to its own record, helped by AI-related companies.
(NEW YORK) -- Alan Greenspan, the longtime chairman of the Federal Reserve, has died, his wife confirmed. He was 100 years old.
"Alan passed away at our home this morning at the age of 100 from complications of Parkinson’s Disease,” Andrea Mitchell, his wife and a chief correspondent at NBC News, said in a statement published by the network on Monday.
The economist is remembered for leading the American central bank amid periods of historic U.S. economic expansion, while critics have also said his policies contributed to and exacerbated the mortgage crisis and financial crash of 2008.
Greenspan, a libertarian Republican, became the 13th chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System two months before the stock market crash on Oct. 19,1987, known as Black Monday. He was credited with moving quickly to alleviate investors' fears after the crash and was instrumental in ensuring the Federal Reserve made plenty of money available to alleviate the impact on financial markets. Stocks quickly rebounded.
He was appointed Fed chair by four different presidents during his career, first by Ronald Reagan in 1987. Greenspan continued to serve as Fed chairman under presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He steered the U.S. economy through the economic boom in the 1990s, the dotcom bubble, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. His final term as chair ended on Jan. 31, 2006.
Under his leadership, the Fed fostered a distaste for regulation and promoted very low interest rates in the early 2000s -- two phenomena critics say encouraged a bubble in housing prices that eventually burst with disastrous effects on the global economy.
During his tenure, and before the financial crisis began, the nation experienced one of the longest periods of economic growth in its history.
A decorated economist, first inspired by music
Greenspan was born on March 6, 1926, in New York City, the only child of Herbert Greenspan, a stockbroker, and Rose Goldsmith Greenspan, a retail worker. His parents divorced when he was 4 years old, and he was raised mainly by his mother and his grandparents.
An aspiring musician, Greenspan attended Juilliard for a year and played saxophone and clarinet before dropping out and enrolling at New York University. He went on to gain his bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in economics from New York University. He also engaged in some advanced graduate work at Columbia University in New York, where he studied under the influential economist Arthur Burns.
Though short-lived, his music career was an influential portion of Greenspan's life, and he considered the move into economics a logical progression. He saw the organization of economic data into sound fiscal modeling as analogous to the organization of musical notes into tunes, according to Greenspan biographer Justin Martin in his book, "Greenspan: The Man Behind Money."
"I get the same kind of joy from solving a hard mathematical problem as I do from hearing a Haydn quartet," Greenspan once told The New York Times Magazine.
Greenspan taught economics at NYU between 1953 and 1955 and then founded the economic consulting firm Townsend & Greenspan, where he served as chairman and president from 1954 to 1974. He returned to the firm in 1977 and stayed until 1987.
President Richard Nixon nominated Greenspan to chair the President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1974, the first of many government economic positions he would hold. Nixon resigned as president hours after Greenspan was nominated, but he continued to serve under President Gerald Ford. Greenspan also served as a member of President Ronald Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board and was a consultant to the Congressional Budget Office.
In the private sector, Greenspan served as corporate director for many companies, including Alcoa, General Foods and J.P. Morgan & Co. He also served as a member of Time magazine's Board of Economists and a senior adviser to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.
In 2002, Greenspan received an honorary knighthood from Queen Elizabeth II in recognition of his contribution to global economic stability. In 2005, President George W. Bush presented Greenspan with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
He held the position of Fed chairman from the time Reagan appointed him in 1987 until 2006, serving an unprecedented five terms under four presidents before being succeeded by Ben Bernanke.
Greenspan is credited by many with facilitating the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. One day after the Black Monday stock crash, Greenspan affirmed the Fed's "readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system" and the central bank moved to encourage banks to lend on their normal terms. Unlike prior financial crises, the events of Black Monday notably were not followed by an economic recession or a banking crisis and less than two years later, the U.S. stock market surpassed its pre-crash highs.
During his tenure, Greenspan developed a reputation for being a consensus-builder and for his strong anti-inflation stance, focusing more on controlling prices than on promoting full employment. He led the Federal Reserve through several events with major economic consequences, including two U.S. recessions, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
'How could we have possibly got it so wrong?'
Starting in June 2003, the Federal Reserve set the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks typically borrow from each other, to one percent for a year. Though its intention was to lower the cost of borrowing and stimulate the economy, critics said the rate was too low and encouraged investments in risky subprime mortgage-backed securities, which they say contributed to the financial crisis in 2008.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a research organization seen as an authority on measuring economic performance, later said that the recession officially began in December 2007.
In September 2007, Greenspan published a book that was both a memoir and economic commentary, "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World," in which he criticized the George W. Bush administration for overspending and admitted that he supported the administration's tax cuts without stressing the need for spending cuts.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012, Greenspan said, "one day before Lehman Brothers crashes, conventional wisdom was not even certain that we would fall into a recession."
"In fact, we learned many months later that the downward trend had actually started," Greenspan said. "How could we have possibly got it so wrong? I mean, I actually was saying, 'Yes, recession is coming, not that we're here yet.' We didn't know that it had already hit."
In October 2008, Greenspan acknowledged to a congressional committee discussing financial regulation that, "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms."
After Greenspan finished his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he established Greenspan Associates, an economic consulting firm in Washington, D.C.
With Greenspan as president, the firm had four employees as of October 2012. His client list has included giant finance clients like German firm Deutsche Bank and hedge fund Paulson & Co.
Personal life
Greenspan married artist Joan Mitchell in 1952. The couple divorced in 1953 after less than a year of marriage, and the marriage was later annulled. The two remained friends.
His first wife is remembered for introducing him to novelist and philosopher Ayn Rand, with whom Greenspan shared a friendship, a belief in free-market economic ideals and a philosophy of objectivism. In his 30s and early 40s, Greenspan spent many hours sitting with Rand's band of followers, known as the "Collective," discussing topics including politics philosophy, current events and economics.
In addition to Burns at Columbia, Rand and her group were instrumental in helping hone Greenspan's capitalist, free-market economic philosophy, according to Martin, Greenspan's biographer.
The group's open style of debate and discussion served Greenspan well in his various governmental roles. During his career in public service, he became known for a well-developed ability to communicate with Congress without offending those with opposing viewpoints or politicizing his messages.
Though he was said to back revamping the Social Security system and raising the retirement age, Greenspan was wary of how his public statements as Fed chairman might move markets. He rarely granted interviews. He was known for making openly ambiguous public statements about the state of the U.S. economy, once telling Congress, "If I've made myself too clear, you must have misunderstood me."
Greenspan married NBC News correspondent Mitchell in 1997. Their marriage was officiated by the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
"We've had the most wonderful marriage," he told Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012. "It gets better every year. We're still very much together in love."
Mitchell is Greenspan's only surviving family.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Thursday and erased most of their losses from a day earlier to notch weekly gains.
The market’s reversal was powered by sharp gains for big technology companies. The decline on Wednesday was driven by anticipation that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates this year in an effort to fight inflation.
On Thursday, stocks faced less pressure as bond yields eased and oil prices spent most of the day falling.
The S&P 500 rose 80.48 points, or 1.1%, to 7,500.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.15 points, or 0.1%, to 51,564.70. The Nasdaq composite surged 496.28 points, or 1.9%, to 26,517.93. Every major index notched weekly gains.
U.S. markets will be closed Friday for Juneteenth.
Technology stocks had some of the biggest gains and the most influence on the broader market’s rise. Intel surged 10.6% after President Donald Trump announced that the semiconductor giant will make chips for Apple in the U.S. Other big semiconductor companies gained ground. Nvidia rose 3% and Micron Technology jumped 8.7%.
On the losing end, SpaceX fell for the second straight day since its ballyhooed debut on the U.S. stock market last week. The Elon Musk-led rocket maker and AI company was down 3.6% following a 4.9% loss Wednesday.
Oil prices wavered after the United States and Iran signed an agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. Brent crude, the international standard, spent most of the day lower before settling 0.4% higher at $79.85 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude fell 0.2% to $75.85 per barrel.
Airlines had some of the bigger gains. American Airlines rose 3.7% and United Airlines rose 2.1%. Cruise line company Carnival jumped 3.2%.
Energy companies lost ground. Exxon Mobil fell 2.1% and Chevron fell 2.2%.
Prices for crude oil are still above roughly $70 per barrel from before the war, but are well below the $100-plus price from a few weeks ago.
Higher oil prices have been weighing on markets throughout the U.S. war with Iran. The current deal between the nations waives sanctions against Iran and allows it to sell its oil freely. It also opens up the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil supply is shipped.
“While investors are welcoming the agreement as a constructive step for geopolitical risk, uncertainty remains elevated around potential flare-ups, the pace of shipping normalization, control of the waterway, the cost of access, and the path forward for Iran’s nuclear program.” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, in a research note.
Rising energy costs have been putting more pressure on already hot inflation. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. has dipped below $4 a gallon, but is still 25% higher from a year ago. Prices have been rising for a wide range of goods because of higher shipping costs.
Hotter inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to shift course from cutting its benchmark interest rate to likely raising rates by the end of the year. Lower interest rates can boost the economy by making borrowing easier for businesses and households, but it also tends to stoke inflation.
The Fed has been trying to balance its job of curbing inflation while supporting employment growth. The jobs market has remained relatively strong amid rising inflation, with low unemployment and solid job growth.
The central bank closed its two-day meeting on Wednesday by maintaining its benchmark interest rate at its current level. But it signaled that it might raise the rate at least once by December.
“This shift in the risk distribution helps explain why around half of the committee thought that an interest-rate hike this year might be needed,” said James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones, in a research note.
The Fed’s stronger signal for an eventual rate hike prompted a jump in bond yields on Wednesday, but they eased on Thursday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.45% from 4.49% late Wednesday. The yield on 2-year Treasury, which more closely tracks action by the Fed, fell to 4.18% from 4.20% late Wednesday.
Markets were mixed in Europe after closing lower Asia.
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Thursday, taking back most of their losses from a day earlier, and are on track to notch weekly gains.
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 302 points, or 0.6%, as of 10:49 a.m. Eastern. The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4%. Every major index is on track for weekly gains. U.S. markets will be closed Friday for Juneteenth.
The gains are helping to cut losses from a day earlier that were driven by anticipation that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates this year in an effort to fight inflation. Bond yields are pulling back. That, along with falling oil prices, is relieving much of the pressure on stocks.
The gains were broad and being led by technology stocks. Intel surged 7% after President Donald Trump announced that the semiconductor giant will make chips for Apple in the U.S. Other big semiconductor companies gained ground. Nvidia rose 2.2% and Micron Technology surged 7.7%.
On the losing end, SpaceX fell for the second straight day since its ballyhooed debut on the U.S. stock market last week. The Elon Musk-led rocket maker and AI company was down 6.5% following a 4.9% loss Wednesday.
Crude oil prices continued to fall after the United States and Iran signed an agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 3% to $77.20 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude fell 3.4% to $73.46 per barrel.
Easing oil prices are relieving pressure on companies that rely heavily on fuel. Airlines had some of the bigger gains. American Airlines rose 4% and United Airlines rose 4%. Cruise line company Carnival jumped 3.4%.
Energy companies, though, lost ground on falling oil prices. Exxon Mobil fell 2.7% and Chevron fell 2.1%.
Prices for crude oil are still above roughly $70 per barrel from before the war, but are well below the $100-plus price from a few weeks ago.
Higher oil prices had been weighing on markets throughout the U.S. war with Iran. The current deal between the nations waives sanctions against Iran and allows it to sell its oil freely. It also opens up the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil supply is shipped.
Rising energy costs have also been putting more pressure on already hot inflation. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. has dipped below $4 a gallon, but is still 25% higher from a year ago. Prices have been rising for a wide range of goods because of higher shipping costs.
Hotter inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to shift course from cutting its benchmark interest rate to likely raising rates by the end of the year. Lower interest rates can boost the economy by making borrowing easier for businesses and households, but it also tends to stoke inflation.
The Fed has been trying to balance its job of curbing inflation while supporting employment growth. The jobs market has remained relatively strong amid rising inflation, with low unemployment and solid job growth.
The central bank closed its two-day meeting on Wednesday by maintaining its benchmark interest rate at its current level. But it signaled that it will likely raise the rate at least once by December.
That prompted a jump in bond yields on Wednesday, but they eased on Thursday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.43% from 4.49% late Wednesday. The yield on 2-year Treasury, which more closely tracks action by the Fed, fell to 4.15% from 4.20% late Wednesday.
Markets were mixed in Europe and Asia.
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices sank again Tuesday and dropped below $80 per barrel for the first time since early March, while U.S. stocks drifted near their all-time highs in mixed trading.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% and pulled 1.3% below its record set earlier this month. The market was nearly evenly split between stocks rising and falling, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 328 points, or 0.6%, to set a record for the second straight day. But drops for some influential tech stocks pulled the Nasdaq composite down 1.2%.
Stocks that had benefited from the boom in artificial-intelligence technology weighed on the market in particular following vicious swings over the last couple weeks.
They’ve been leading the market up and down amid worries that their stock prices shot too high in the mania around AI. That’s taken a toll because chip companies, makers of computer memory and other AI winners have grown so massive that they’ve become some of Wall Street’s most influential stocks.
Drops of 2.4% for Nvidia, 4.4% for Broadcom and 6.2% for Micron Technology were the heaviest weights pulling the S&P 500 lower.
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment sank 6.2% after reporting a weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, while Robinhood Markets fell 1.4% after the investing platform said that it’s laying off about 10% of its full-time employees.
On the winning side of Wall Street was SpaceX, which rose 4.8% for its third straight gain since its debut on the U.S. stock market. It said it’s moving forward with a purchase of Cursor, a popular AI coding assistant, valuing it at $60 billion.
Yum Brands climbed 1.9% after it said it’s selling the Pizza Hut chain for $2.7 billion. Most of the restaurants will go to LongRange Capital, a private equity firm. Those in mainland China will go to Yum China Holdings.
All told, the S&P 500 slipped 42.94 points to 7,511.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 328.64 to 51,999.67, and the Nasdaq composite fell 307.60 to 26,376.34.
The strongest action was in the oil market, where optimism continued that a tentative U.S.-Iran deal on their war will reopen the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the week and get the global flow of oil going again. The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 5.1% to settle at $78.96.
Oil prices fall as stocks drift.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose in Europe following a mixed performance in Asia.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 briefly topped 70,000 for the first time before ending with a modest gain of 0.1% after the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%. That’s its highest level in three decades, and it followed a similar move by the European Central Bank last week.
The Federal Reserve began its own meeting on what to do with interest rates Tuesday, with an announcement on the decision scheduled for Wednesday.
It’s the first meeting under the Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump. Trump has been pushing for lower interest rates, which would give the economy a boost but also threaten to worsen inflation. The widespread expectation, though, is that the Fed will leave its main interest rate alone again.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.43% from 4.47% late Monday and from 4.56% earlier this month.
High yields in bond markets worldwide caused by expensive oil prices have threatened to slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
High yields have already sent mortgage rates higher, and a report on Tuesday said construction crews broke ground on far fewer new U.S. homes in May than economists expected.
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices are sinking again Tuesday and pulled back below $80 per barrel for the first time since early March, while the U.S. stock market drifts near its all-time high.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% following a rally that’s brought it back within 1% of its record set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 502 points, or 1%, as of 12:46 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.5% lower.
With optimism continuing that a tentative U.S.-Iran deal on their war will reopen the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the week and get the global flow of oil going again, the price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 5.4% to $78.66.
Significant hurdles remain in the negotiations, including what to do with Iran’s nuclear program. But the hope on Wall Street is that this agreement will mean a long-term fix to a conflict that has worsened inflation around the world. The price of Brent has come down sharply from its $100-plus level of a few weeks ago, though it could still take months for the energy industry to get back to full speed.
On Wall Street, stocks benefiting from the boom in artificial-intelligence technology were weighing on the market following their vicious swings over the last couple weeks. They have been leading the market up and down amid worries that their stock prices shot too high, too quickly in the mania around AI. That’s taken a toll because chip companies and other AI winners have grown so big that they’ve become some of Wall Street’s most influential stocks.
Drops of 1.7% for Nvidia and 3.5% for Micron Technology were the two heaviest weights pulling the S&P 500 lower.
Robinhood Markets fell 1.6% after the investing platform said in a regulatory filing that it’s laying off about 10% of its full-time employees, while Dave & Buster’s Entertainment sank 5% after reporting a weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
On the winning side of Wall Street was SpaceX, which rose 12.8% toward a third straight gain since its debut on the U.S. stock market. It said it’s moving forward with a purchase of Cursor, a popular AI coding assistant, valuing it at $60 billion.
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Yum Brands climbed 2.2% after it said it’s selling the Pizza Hut chain for $2.7 billion. Most of the restaurants will go to LongRange Capital, a private equity firm. Those in mainland China will go to Yum China Holdings.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose in Europe following a mixed performance in Asia.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 briefly topped 70,000 for the first time before ending with a modest gain of 0.1% after the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%. That’s its highest level in three decades, and it followed a similar move by the European Central Bank last week.
The Federal Reserve is beginning its own meeting on what to do with interest rates Tuesday, with an announcement on the decision coming Wednesday.
It will be the first meeting under the Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump. Trump has been pushing for lower interest rates, which would give the economy a boost but also threaten to worsen inflation. The widespread expectation, though, is that the Fed will leave its main interest rate alone again.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.43% from 4.47% late Monday and from 4.56% earlier this month.
High yields in bond markets worldwide caused by expensive oil prices have threatened to slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. High yields have already sent mortgage rates higher, and a report on Tuesday said construction crews broke ground on far fewer new U.S. homes in May than economists expected.
(WASHINGTON) -- The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank weathers the highest inflation in three years.
The announcement will mark the first possible adjustment of the benchmark interest rate since Trump nominee Kevin Warsh began his four-year term as Fed chair last month.
The policy move is also set to arrive at a moment of flux for the nation’s economy, just days after an agreement between the United States and Iran offered hope for some price relief.
The U.S.-Iran accord, set to be formally signed on Friday, came as gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since March. Still, fuel costs stand well above pre-war levels, and an array of grocery prices remain elevated.
Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
In recent weeks, however, odds have risen for a potential interest rate hike by the end of 2026, the tool showed, granting a roughly four in 10 chance of a quarter-point increase in December.
The shift in expectations came after a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month showed robust hiring in May. In theory, a resilient labor market could afford central bankers leeway to raise interest rates in an effort to dial back inflation, since elevated borrowing costs risk a hiring slowdown.
Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices surging.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Iran deal that included plans to reopen the strait. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since March.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rate decision will be the first major policy move overseen by Warsh, who will address reporters during a customary press conference minutes after the central bank issues its announcement.
During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate "hawk," meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.
Last year, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates. At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.
"When inflation surges -- as it has done in recent years -- grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off," Warsh said.
Bucking typical norms, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell Powell will cast a vote on interest rates as a member of the Fed's 12-person policymaking board.
Powell said he would stay on at the central bank's board of governors after his term as chair expired as an investigation into the Fed's office renovation continues.
The Department of Justice moved to drop a criminal probe into Powell in April, calling on the Fed's inspector general to carry out the investigation into cost overruns tied to the renovation. Powell will remain on the Fed's board for an indeterminate length of time, he said last month.
The criminal investigation into Powell focused on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Stock markets rallied worldwide Monday, and oil prices eased after the United States and Iran reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to get the global flow of crude going again.
The S&P 500 rose 1.7% on hopes that this time, the announcement of an Iran-U.S. agreement will mean a long-term fix to a conflict that has worsened inflation around the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 468 points, or 0.9%, to a record, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 3.1%.
Stocks got a lift after the price for a barrel of Brent crude oil fell 4.8% to $83.17, back to where it was in early March. While that’s still above its price of roughly $70 from before the war, it’s lower than the $100 plus it cost just a few weeks ago. The hope is that lower oil prices will take pressure off households and businesses, which have had to pay higher prices for everything from food to fuel to fertilizer because of the war with Iran.
Iran confirmed the deal, but it does not include a final agreement on issues like Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiations on that are expected to continue over the next 60 days, which leaves opportunity for hiccups that could derail the agreement. And even if the Strait of Hormuz does fully reopen on Friday as expected, it will likely take months for the energy industry to get back to full speed.
For now, though, relief swept through financial markets worldwide.
Stocks jump worldwide, and oil prices drop after the U.S. and Iran reach a tentative deal on their war.
Stocks of companies enmeshed in the artificial-intelligence industry also jumped. These stocks have yo-yoed in recent weeks, going from roaring to records to suddenly turning lower. The concern is whether such stocks shot too high, too fast because of AI mania, and their careening moves have sometimes reversed direction by the hour.
Micron Technology rallied 10.8%, and Advanced Micro Devices rose 7%. Nvidia’s climb of 3.5% was the strongest force pushing the S&P 500 upward because the AI chip company is Wall Street’s most valuable company, giving it more weight on the index than any other.
SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket company that also owns the AI company xAI, rose 19.6% in its second day of trading on Wall Street. Its successful debut on the Nasdaq suggested plenty of demand still exists among investors for AI. The market has given SpaceX a total value of more than $2.1 trillion, making it bigger than Exxon Mobil, Bank of America and Coca-Cola combined.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased on hopes that lower oil prices will remove pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.47% from 4.48% late Friday.
Europe’s central bank last week became the first major one in the world to raise interest rates because of the war with Iran. High interest rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. They hit investments seen as the most expensive in particular, and some critics are calling the AI industry a bubble where investment inflated too far.
The Fed will announce its latest decision on interest rates later this week, which will be the first under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. Traders see it as a near certainty that the Fed will leave its main interest rate steady after its two-day meeting ends Wednesday.
Traders had been raising bets that the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year because of how much inflation has accelerated and how solid the U.S. job market remains. But the tentative deal between the United States and Iran means traders are now betting on only a 57% chance of a hike this year, down from 71% a week ago, according to data from CME Group.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, Roku fell 1.9% after the company announced that Fox Corp. is buying the streaming pioneer in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $22 billion.
Roku’s stock had already soared 20% Friday, when media reports emerged about a deal, which will give Fox access to the Roku channel, first-party data and more than 100 million global streaming households. Fox’s stock fell 16.8%.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 122.83 points to 7,554.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 468.77 to 51,671.03, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 795.10 to 26,683.94.
In stock markets abroad, indexes climbed in Asia and Europe. Japan’s Nikkei 225 leaped 5% for one of the world’s biggest gains and finished at a record.
“This is great news,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex. “Buying by foreign investors is leading the market with expectations of easing tensions around the situation in the Middle East.”
South Korea’s Kospi soared even more, 5.2%, thanks in part to continued rallies for AI winners like Samsung Electronics.
London’s FTSE 100 was an outlier and slipped 0.4%.
(NEW YORK) -- Oil prices on Monday fell to their lowest level since March after U.S. officials announced an agreement between the United States and Iran.
West Texas Intermediate futures price, the benchmark index for U.S. trading, registered at about $80.40. That figure, which amounted to a 5% drop on Monday, marked the lowest price since March 5, just a week after the outbreak of the Iran war.
Stock prices, meanwhile, climbed on hopes of a resolution to the Iran war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 530 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 increased 1.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 2.3%.
Gas prices have fallen toward $4 per gallon in recent weeks, nearing the milestone as oil costs have eased in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.06, marking a decline of 46 cents, or 10.2%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain $1.08 higher than where they stood before the Iran war.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.
President Donald Trump said in a Sunday social media post that the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal that will open up the strait.
"I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade," Trump wrote.
"Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" he added.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
Trump said the strait would open after the formal signing of the deal on Friday. The oil flow is linked to mine removal, Trump noted.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
ABC News' David Brennan and Isabella Murray contributed to this report.
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(NEW YORK) -- Consumer sentiment improved in June for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war as gasoline prices eased in recent weeks, but shopper attitudes remained near their worst level on record, University of Michigan survey data on Friday showed. The reading exceeded economists' expectations.
The survey snapped three consecutive months of dampening consumer sentiment, recovering from an all-time low in May, data showed. The University of Michigan has conducted the survey for the past 80 years.
This improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education and political party, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. Overall assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose in June, she noted.
The fresh figure comes days after a government report on inflation showed the pace of price increases exceeded 4% for the first time in three years.
Prices rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, increasing 0.5% from the prior month, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Consumers expect inflation to move higher over the next year, hitting a pace of 4.8% in June 2027, the University of Michigan survey showed.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices higher.
Drivers stung by high gas prices have enjoyed some welcome relief over recent weeks, however, even as the impact of the Iran war continues to choke off oil supply.
The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.10, marking a decline of 40 cents, or 8.8%, over the past month, AAA data showed. Gas prices, however, remain $1.12 higher than where they stood before the Iran war.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, could weaken if shopper remains lackluster.
Spending slowed over the first three months of 2026 compared to the previous three-month period, according to government data issued earlier this year. The economy remained solid at the outset of this year, however, as gross domestic product rose 2% on an annualized basis, the report showed.
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(NEW YORK) -- Elon Musk, the wealthiest person alive, could become the first-ever trillionaire when SpaceX goes public on Friday.
The company's founder and CEO is set to own roughly four out of every 10 SpaceX shares after the initial public offering (IPO). If SpaceX were to achieve its target valuation of $1.75 trillion, Musk would accrue hundreds of millions of dollars in new wealth, at least on paper.
SpaceX builds and operates spacecraft, including thousands of satellites deployed in support of its Starlink satellite internet service. Earlier this year, the Texas-based firm merged with xAI, a Musk-led artificial intelligence company that offers the chatbot Grok.
The potential financial windfall would vault Musk even further ahead of other financial titans. Musk currently boasts a net worth of about $780 billion, according to Forbes. The second-wealthiest person in the world, Google founder Larry Page, counts a net worth of $291 billion.
If Musk were to become a trillionaire, his net worth would exceed the wealth of the poorest 46% of the global population, or about 3.8 billion people, according to a report issued by non-profit Oxfam on Thursday.
The benchmark would indicate Musk's wealth had grown about $550 billion over the past year, which breaks down to more than $1 million per day, Oxfam said.
After the IPO, Musk could own a major stake in two of the 10-largest companies in the world as measured by market capitalization: Tesla and SpaceX.
Musk's wealth stems primarily from the sizable stakes he holds in those two companies, Jason Schloetzer, a professor of accounting at Georgetown University who focuses on executive compensation, told ABC News.
His wealth, in other words, will depend in large part on the price of shares in those firms.
The SpaceX IPO has divided stock analysts, some of whom tout its earnings potential in the lucrative aerospace and AI industries, even as others bemoan what they view as pie-in-the-sky initiatives like space-bound data centers.
The company's revenue jumped to $18.7 billion in 2025, soaring 33% compared to the previous year, a financial filing showed. Nearly a quarter of that revenue came from Starlink, which counted millions of subscribers. Still, SpaceX failed to turn a profit, registering a loss of $4.9 billion last year.
The company is targeting a launch price of $135 per share, which would amount to a $1.75 trillion valuation and a massive boon for Musk. Under that scenario, Musk's net worth would sail well beyond $1 trillion. It would mark the largest IPO of all time.
Some analysts, however, have questioned that target valuation. Nicolas Owens, an analyst at Morningstar, issued a memo this week criticizing the hoped-for share price. Citing technological challenges faced by the company's AI initiatives, Owens pegged the value of the stock at about $63 a share, less than half of the target price.
After the IPO, SpaceX will be subject to new attention from public investors and regulators, which could test the company's long-term ambitions, Schloetzer said.
"It remains to be seen whether the valuation of SpaceX can maintain or whether we'll see it come down once it's under the scrutiny of public markets," Schloetzer added.
Observers seeking evidence of potential shareholder gains can look no further than Musk-led Tesla. Over the past five years, Tesla shares have soared 90%, outpacing a 71% rise in the S&P 500 over that time. But shares of Tesla have also been buoyed by moonshot ventures like self-driving taxis and humanoid robotics.
"Clearly, fundamentals matter in the long run," Schloetzer said. "But it seems like Musk has been able to defy fundamentals in the past and he may be able to do that again."
Regardless of its size, the potential influx of wealth from the SpaceX IPO comes with a catch. Musk cannot sell any of his SpaceX shares until a year after the IPO, according to a financial filing. After that, a move to sell shares would erode Musk's stake in the company and reduce his control over decision-making.
"Selling shares would dilute his ownership control and voting power, but he wants to retain that," Schloetzer said. "On paper, you may be wealthy, but that's an asset you're not willing to sell."
Meanwhile, Tesla shareholders last year granted Musk a compensation package that could earn him more than $1 trillion over the coming years, meaning he may eventually push toward a net worth of $2 trillion.
"The numbers are so large it's hard to wrap your brain around," Schloetzer said.
Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(NEW YORK) -- Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years. The reading matched economists' expectations.
Prices rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, marking an increase from a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.8% in the prior month, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.
As recently as February, inflation clocked in just a few ticks above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.
Energy prices -- a broad index that includes gasoline -- soared 23% in May compared to a year earlier, data showed.
As a result, gasoline prices surged. The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.15 as of Wednesday, AAA data showed -- an increase of $1.17 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a nearly 40% price jump in about three-and-a-half months.
The oil shortage also drove up diesel prices, putting upward pressure on grocery prices. Diesel is the lifeblood of the food supply chain, fueling trucks and ships. Higher fuel costs for suppliers mean price hikes in grocery aisles as the increased costs are passed down the supply chain.
Prices for tomatoes soared 32% in May compared to a year earlier, government data showed. Seafood prices jumped 6% over that period, while beef prices climbed nearly 13%.
A persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation.
What does the inflation report mean for consumers?
The latest price data spells more bad news for shoppers, helping to explain widely felt angst in the check-out aisle.
In May, shoppers registered their worst sentiment on record in a survey conducted each month by the University of Michigan since 1952.
Prices ticked higher last month for a range of essentials, including food, gasoline and medical care. Overall, inflation stands at its highest level since April 2023.
"Americans are getting crushed by high prices and they’re telling us every chance they get that they can’t keep up," Janelle Jones, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative and a former chief economist at the Labor Department under President Joe Biden, told ABC News in a statement.
Inflation outpaced the rate of wage gains for the second consecutive months, eating away at the purchasing power of take-home pay for many Americans.
A continued decline in real wages -- a term used by economists to describe inflation-adjusted pay -- could erode the spending power of middle- and lower-income Americans over the second half of the year, Joseph Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM, told ABC News.
Still, the inflation report offered a bright spot. Core inflation -- a measure of price increases that strips out volatile food and energy prices -- clocked at 2.9% over the year ending in May. While the figure marked its highest level since September, it came in well below the overall inflation rate.
Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, described the core inflation rate as "close to normal."
Between April and May, meanwhile, prices declined for some products like apparel and new vehicles.
Still, the fate of shoppers may depend on the outcome of the Iran war, particularly the status of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices have eased in recent weeks, they remain well above where they stood before the Middle East conflict.
"The trouble is, the longer it takes to find a resolution, the more likely oil prices remain elevated. And the longer energy prices stay elevated; the stickier inflation can get," Bret Kenwell, an investing analyst at eToro, told ABC News.
What does the inflation report mean for interest rates?
For now, futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policy makers meet next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
The meeting will be the first since Kevin Warsh began a four-year term atop the central bank.
During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate "hawk," meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.
Last year, however, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates, rebuking the Fed's concern about inflation risk posed by a flurry of new tariffs.
At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.
"When inflation surges -- as it has done in recent years -- grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off," Warsh said.
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(TORONTO) -- An Air Canada pilot was arrested Monday after a probe discovered he had been allegedly flying hundreds of flights for at least 17 years without a proper license.
Canadian police officials outlined Geoffrey Wall's alleged fraud, which they said, "read like a movie script."
Since 2009, when Wall was promoted to captain, he has been flying with a fraudulent airline transport pilot license, the credential that would allow him to fly commercial airplanes as a captain, Peel Regional Police said.
Authorities compared Wall to a doctor who is licensed to practice family medicine marching into a hospital to perform brain surgery.
"Licensing requirements exist for a reason. They exist to keep people safe," Deputy Chief Nick Milinovich of the Peel Regional Police said.
Wall's arrest was part of a fraud investigation dubbed "Project Icarus," which started after a random certification check done last year at Pearson International Airport in Toronto turned up "anomalies," investigators said.
Wall, 59, of Barrie, Ontario, is no longer working with Air Canada, the airline said Monday night.
In a news release, Air Canada said it "takes this matter with utmost seriousness."
"Safety was not compromised by this incident because all pilots at Air Canada undergo mandatory recurrent training every six months to validate their flying competency, including a flight check with a certified Transport Canada check-pilot every 12 months," the airline said in a statement.
"However, appropriate licensing is an essential layer of the airline industry’s multi-layered approach to safety, so Air Canada takes this matter with utmost seriousness," it added.
Wall is charged with fraud, public mischief and other offenses. He was released on his own recognizance and is due back in court later this month.
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(NEW YORK) -- OpenAI, the artificial-intelligence company behind ChatGPT, announced Monday night it had filed confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO), setting up the firm to raise fresh funds as it competes with deep-pocketed tech giants in the fast-growing AI industry.
In a post on X, OpenAI said it had not determined when the company would begin listing on public markets.
"We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best," the company said.
The move would subject the privately held company to new scrutiny from public investors and regulators, as well as ongoing financial reporting requirements. OpenAI valued itself at $852 billion after a round of funding in March.
This story will be updated shortly.
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