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WASHINGTON (AP) – President Donald Trump is on a winning streak in Republican primaries, most recently endorsing Ken Paxton ahead of his Tuesday runoff victory over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.

But Trump’s tightening grip on his party could make it harder to win in the November midterms, when Republicans face a broader electorate that has soured on the president’s second term and the economy.

The risk is compounded, Republican operatives say, by how cavalier the billionaire president has been in addressing Americans’ financial worries, which have been exacerbated by Trump’s trade rollercoaster and his ongoing war against Iran.

Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, acknowledged the president’s approach is making things harder for his party.

“It’s going to be a tough fall unless things dramatically change,” Urban said.

He warned that Trump cannot afford a haphazard exit from the war with Iran to resolve a conflict that has created a chokehold on global oil supplies and driven gas prices higher for Americans.

“I think the president wants to help,” he said, but “you do not want to give the Iranians a win just because of the midterms.”

Trump brushes off economic troubles

Not only are prices higher after Trump’s tariffs and his Iran war, but the president has repeatedly described affordability concerns as a “hoax.”

Trump mused that increases in gas prices — up more than 50% in the U.S. since Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran — amount to “peanuts.” He said he does not consider Americans’ personal finances “even a little bit” when mulling options in Iran, insisting that preventing the country from obtaining nuclear weapons is his only priority.

All of that comes as Trump badgers Congress to spend $1 billion on his White House ballroom project and allocate $1.8 billion to pay restitution to people who believe they were prosecuted for political purposes — potentially including those who violently attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

It’s a cascade that Republicans in every battleground House district, Senate election or statewide contest will have to navigate in the fall.

“You keep the House and Senate by having a message, by dealing with the issues voters are clearly complaining about,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic. “The administration has utterly failed to do this.”

It has been more than two weeks since the Republican National Committee distributed talking points to surrogates that mention the economy, according to messaging documents reviewed by The Associated Press.

The only talking points sent out last week focused on defending Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund.”

“Democrats and the fake-news media are deliberately ignoring the fact that this fund is not limited to Republicans or Trump supporters,” said the message on May 23.

Two weeks earlier, the RNC encouraged surrogates to praise the president and his party for “delivering lower costs.”

The messaging ignored the exploding cost of gas, but noted that the price of eggs, school supplies and butter was down significantly over last year.

“President Trump promised to lower prices, and he is doing just that,” the talking points said.

Democrats see opportunity in Trump’s struggles

Republicans began Trump’s second presidency with a 220-215 advantage in the House. They’ve boosted their chances to hold the majority by redrawing congressional maps in several Republican-run states. But Democrats are still confident they can flip enough seats to reclaim a majority.

Republicans have a more significant 53-47 advantage in the Senate. However, leaders of both parties agree that control of the chamber is in play. Some Republicans blame Trump for backing candidates like Paxton, who has faced years of scandals and could prove more vulnerable in a race against Democratic nominee James Talarico in the fall.

Viet Shelton, a spokesman for House Democrats’ campaign committee, said Trump’s redistricting push shows that he understands his party’s troubles.

“They’ve given up on trying to win over voters fair and square, so they’re resorting to rigging the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression,” Shelton said.

Democratic advisers said Trump’s struggles have shifted the dynamics in multiple races. Their list of Republican-held House targets now includes many districts that Trump carried by double digits. In special elections and odd-year elections since Trump’s second inauguration, Democrats have consistently outperformed their 2024 results.

Voters can expect to see clips of Trump’s comments on the economy featured in Democratic advertising this fall. However, party operatives said the broader strategy is to acknowledge the president’s appeal as a populist but argue that he and his Republican loyalists have failed to deliver.

In U.S. House districts in Iowa, for example, that means emphasizing how tariffs have affected the farm economy and how the Iran war has increased the prices of diesel fuel and fertilizer. In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, that means talking about how Trump’s immigration crackdown has roiled the local economy in Latino communities.

Republicans are frustrated behind closed doors

Republican strategists are worried by Trump’s lack of focus on the economy — and the lack of transparency from Trump’s team about how it plans to deploy its massive campaign accounts.

The pro-Trump super PAC known as MAGA Inc. held more than $356 million at the end of April. Yet many Republican strategists say they’ve received no clear indication of how, where and when Trump’s team plans to spend the money, according to several operatives who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

They see one bright spot in James Blair, Trump’s political general, leaving the White House to focus on the midterms.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the president’s strategy and confidence about the midterms.

Perhaps underscoring Republicans’ conundrum, Trump remains a fundraising juggernaut. He helped House Republicans rake in $36.8 million in a single fundraising dinner last month, a committee record.

Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Trump “puts House Republicans in the strongest possible position to defy history and win in November.”

Of course, a candidate must win the Republican nomination to even be around for the fall campaign.

“The president has chosen to be aggressive in endorsing candidates he believes are the best advocates for his agenda and have been loyal to him,” Republican campaign veteran Chip Lake said.

Lake is leading an independent expenditure effort on behalf of Georgia Republican Burt Jones, the Trump-endorsed candidate in a June 16 primary runoff for governor.

“It’s difficult, if not impossible to win a primary in today’s environment if the president is working against you,” Lake said. And whatever the general election consequences, he added, independents and moderates “make up a very tiny, even minuscule portion of Republican primaries.”

PLANO (AP) — As it turned out, it would never be enough.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn tried for more than a year to show Donald Trump and Texas Republicans that he and the president were on the same team.

Cornyn posted a photo of himself reading Trump’s “The Art of the Deal.” He proposed legislation to rename a stretch of interstate in Trump’s honor. Perhaps most glaringly, the Senate institutionalist who long supported the filibuster reversed his position in a failed effort to advance voting restrictions that are a priority for the president.

None of it worked. On Tuesday, Cornyn became the latest in a line of Republicans who lost their primaries after falling out of favor with a president with little tolerance for dissent and a seemingly insatiable appetite for retribution. The four-term senator lost by double digits to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who Trump endorsed last week as “a true MAGA Warrior.”

Cornyn, on the other hand, “was VERY disloyal to me,” Trump wrote on social media.

Trump’s intervention in the Texas runoff came after weeks of successfully backing primary challengers in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky as revenge against incumbents who broke with his agenda.

Cornyn’s attempt to avoid the same fate made even some of his supporters wince.

“You look at the positions he took to please the president and the groveling and whatever,” said former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, a Republican and Trump critic who didn’t seek reelection during the president’s first midterm in 2018. “It was rather painful to watch.”

Cornyn started early with ad touting pro-Trump voting record

Cornyn’s loss wasn’t for a lack of political gymnastics and astronomical campaign spending.

His campaign began running an advertisement last summer — part of an astounding nearly-$100-million air war by the senator and allied groups — with Cornyn looking into the camera and saying, “I voted with President Trump 99% of the time.”

On Cornyn’s campaign homepage, Trump and Cornyn stand side-by-side with thumbs pointed upward in an image aimed at projecting solidarity. Deeper in the website, the category titled “The Trump-Cornyn Record” notes the senator’s role securing votes for Trump’s signature 2017 tax cut bill.

Cornyn has also been championing provisions in Trump’s signature tax-and-spending legislation to finance work on the U.S.-Mexico border wall.

The senator had dismissed the project as “naive” during Trump’s 2016 campaign. But in January, he stood along a section of completed wall in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley touting the measure’s $11 billion for Texas contractors’ work at “the direction of the president of the United States, to whom I am very grateful.”

Cornyn’s 2023 dismissal of Trump’s return glares in background

Cornyn’s praise for his party’s leader and president were not unusual, but they clash with a statement Cornyn made in May 2023, when Trump was mounting his presidential comeback campaign.

“Trump’s time has passed him by,” he told reporters. “I don’t think President Trump understands that when you run in a general election, you have to appeal to voters beyond your base.”

Trump would go on to easily win the nomination and carry every battleground state in the general election.

Cornyn would hew closely to the president for the first 16 months of his second administration, hoping at the outside chance of his endorsement or to keeping him from weighing in at all.

But Trump did not forget the past slights.

“John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” he wrote on social media while endorsing Paxton.

Smaller gestures, and one big one

Cornyn has playfully worked to promote Trump fandom, last year posting a picture on social media of himself thoughtfully peering into the pages of Trump’s 1987 memoir and business advice book, “The Art of the Deal.”

In a more obvious gesture, he proposed designating a section of a U.S. highway from the Texas Gulf Coast to Montana as “Interstate 47,” to honor a 47th president with a well-documented love of naming things after himself. In a news release about the proposal, filed just over two weeks before Tuesday’s runoff, Cornyn said it would be known as the “Trump Interstate.”

The more tectonic shift occurred in March, after Trump had teased a possible endorsement of either Cornyn or Paxton in the runoff.

Paxton swiftly said he would consider dropping his candidacy if the Republican-controlled Senate lifted the filibuster and passed the SAVE America Act, a series of voting restrictions that Trump has described as an essential part of his agenda.

The following week, Cornyn wrote an op-ed in the New York Post — Trump’s favorite hometown newspaper — backing away from his previous support of the filibuster. He vowed to “support whatever changes to Senate rules that may prove necessary” to get the bill “through the Senate and on the president’s desk for his signature.”

Flake watched with unease.

“I know John and his long-held positions on the filibuster and the Senate’s institutions,” he said. “No office is worth that.”

PLANO (AP) — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, defeating four-term Sen. John Cornyn.

Paxton was endorsed by President Donald Trump last week. His victory in Tuesday’s runoff makes Cornyn the first Republican senator from Texas to lose the party’s nomination for reelection.

Trump endorsed Paxton as part of his effort to dislodge GOP officeholders he views as less than devout in their support of him. Cornyn said in 2023 as Trump was running to return to the White House that his time “has passed him by.”

Cornyn led Paxton in the March 3 primary but did not receive a majority of the vote, forcing Tuesday’s runoff.

Cornyn’s campaign and allied groups spent roughly $109 million on advertising for the primary and runoff. He had the backing of Senate GOP leaders who said he would be the stronger general election candidate.

Paxton will run against state Rep. James Talarico in November.

Tuesday’s runoffs also will decide Democratic U.S. House nominees for districts in Dallas and Houston that overwhelmingly support Democrats, and a San Antonio-area seat the party wants to flip.

The primary has been long and costly

Cornyn led Paxton in the March primary but failed to win a majority. That was after Cornyn and his supporters waged a monthslong ad campaign, mostly attacking Paxton over ethical and personal questions. The two-term attorney general was acquitted on corruption charges in a 2023 impeachment trial, where allegations of extramarital affairs surfaced. Paxton’s wife filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”

The alliance of pro-Cornyn groups has continued its attack, outspending Paxton’s campaign and two allied super PACs $16.5 million to $5.9 million since March 3, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Trump promised to endorse immediately after the primary but didn’t act until after early voting began last week.

“Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to win,” Trump wrote in a social media post endorsing him.

David Jacobson, a retired 70-year-old Dallas-area resident, said Trump’s endorsement was a factor in his decision to back Paxton on Tuesday. While Cornyn has for the most part been a strong Trump supporter, Jacobson generally thinks most politicians have remained in office too long.

“Maybe it’s time for a change,” he said after voting near Dallas.

Linda Williams said she voted for Cornyn, calling him “the lesser of two evils.” She thinks Cornyn has a better chance to beat Talarico this fall.

“Because Paxton is a crook,” Williams said after voting in Plano, outside Dallas.

Trump snubs Cornyn amid retribution campaign

Trump, in his endorsement, poked at Cornyn, saying he “was not supportive of me when times were tough” and that “John was very late in backing me.”

Cornyn suggested in 2023 that Trump could not win the presidency again in 2024 and that his “time has passed him by.” He also was an early critic of Trump’s plan for a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico — a project he now supports.

Cornyn said Tuesday on Fox News Radio’s “The Brian Kilmeade Show” that the president’s ire was misplaced. There are “grifters,” he said, “claiming that I am opposed to the president’s agenda, and I think that’s caused some confusion with the president himself. But I’ve been supportive.”

Some GOP strategists have argued that a Paxton nomination would cost millions of dollars more to promote in the fall, when money could be spent defending Republican seats in more competitive states. Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to take the majority. Cornyn has the support of Senate GOP leaders.

Democrats also will choose US House nominees

Newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee defeated veteran Rep. Al Green in Texas’ 18th District, dispatching a longtime House incumbent who was one of Trump’s most outspoken critics. The Republican-led Texas Legislature redrew the district when it approved a new House map last year. The new map led to a runoff between incumbents and marks the end of a dizzying series of elections in the Houston area.

Former Rep. Colin Allred and U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson are competing in the Dallas-area 33rd District. Johnson was elected to the seat in 2024, the year Allred lost his U.S. Senate challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred was running for Senate again this cycle but dropped his bid and instead is looking to return to the House.

Near San Antonio, Democratic leaders are trying to prevent Maureen Galindo, who has expressed antisemitic views, from winning the party’s runoff with Johnny Garcia. While Texas lawmakers redrew the 35th District to help Republicans, Democrats view it as within reach and don’t want Galindo’s past comments to impede them.