Today is
Sunday July 19, 2026
(NEW YORK) -- Hiring blew past expectations in May, registering at a blockbuster clip despite a continued rise in inflation set off by the Iran War.
The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, according to the report, which marked an acceleration from 115,000 jobs added in April. The reading for April exceeded economists' expectations. The reading amounted to a slight downshift from March, when the U.S. economy gained 185,000 jobs.
Still, the job gains in May indicated a robust expansion of the labor market, defying concern about a potential economic downturn. Hiring has proven unexpectedly resilient in recent months, despite a rise in costs borne by businesses and shoppers.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
The leisure and hospitality sector added 70,000 jobs in May, far exceeding an average of 14,000 jobs added each month over the past year. Job gains also came in local government and healthcare.
The Middle East conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.24 as of Thursday, AAA data showed – an increase of $1.26 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a roughly 42% price jump in about three months.
Grocery prices have also climbed as a result of higher diesel costs borne by suppliers.
A persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation. The choice to raise interest rates could slow price increases, but it risks a cooldown in economic performance.
For now, the U.S. economy appears robust. The economy grew at a solid pace over the first three months of 2026, rebounding from sluggish performance at the end of last year.
Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
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(NEW YORKI) --Drivers stung by high gas prices have enjoyed some welcome relief over the last couple of weeks, even as the impact of the Iran war continues to choke off oil supply.
The national average price of a gallon of gas stood at $4.26 on Wednesday, marking a decline of 30 cents, or 6.5%, since a recent peak on May 21.
Still, prices remain well above where they clocked in before a historic oil shock set off by the war. In late February, the average gallon of gas ran less than $3.
The dropoff in gas prices owes to a decline in oil costs over the latter part of last month, which coincided with a slump in demand following Memorial Day weekend, some analysts said.
Still, they cautioned, gas prices may rise again as oil prices jump and the war shows little sign of an imminent resolution. If the war continues, some analysts said, gas price could top $5 a gallon by next month.
"It's so volatile," Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, told ABC News. "If the war ended, prices would likely go down. But if it continues, you'll see prices go up."
In Georgia, the state with the lowest average gas prices, a gallon costs about $3.79, AAA data shows. In all, the AAA data says six states currently sell gas at or below an average price of $4 per gallon.
By contrast, the cost of a gallon of gas in California stands at $5.99, making it the state with the highest prices, AAA data shows. Even in California, however, the average price has fallen about 10 cents over the past week.
At the outset of the war, gasoline prices surged in response to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global crude supply.
Oil prices began to fall in mid-May, however, as Iran and the U.S. appeared willing to strike an agreement that would reopen the strait. Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration.
On Friday, U.S. oil prices fell as low as about $86 a barrel, marking a drop of about 20% over a 10-day stretch.
"Gas prices have seen a big push because crude prices have dropped. Crude prices have dropped largely because the president has been indicating that we're close to an agreement with Iran," Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, told ABC News.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
Oil prices have ticked up in recent days, but they remain below $100 a barrel. As long as oil prices remain under that benchmark, gas prices may continue to hold steady or even decline, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, told ABC News.
A near-term drop in gas prices appears possible because gas sellers are holding onto unusually large profit margins, meaning they could reduce retail prices even if their input costs maintain current levels, Cinquegrana said. Over the past two years, the average margin for sellers came in at about 34 cents per gallon, he added, but it currently stands at 50 cents per gallon.
"There's still some room for gas prices to move down," Cinquegrana said.
Looking weeks or months into the future, however, analysts cautioned about a rise in oil and gasoline prices unless normal tariff resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.
"It's still possible later this summer, even ahead of July 4, we could see the national average pass $5 a gallon," Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, told ABC News Live on Monday.
"We could be seeing much higher gas prices in very short order if the strait doesn't reopen," he added.
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(NEW YORK) -- A court filing shows how businesses are getting money back from the U.S. government after the Supreme Court ruled many of President Donald Trump's tariffs were illegal.
The Trump administration has sent out $20.6 billion in tariff refunds so far, according to a new court filing.
The filing sheds light on how tens of thousands of American businesses are starting to get money back from the federal government after the Supreme Court ruled many of President Donald Trump's tariffs were illegal in February.
Walmart suggested last week it will cut prices for shoppers using the estimated $2.4 billion in refunds it's owed.
"On tariffs, we are availing ourselves of the process to get refunds. We would definitely bias and try to prioritize price investment for that ... we think the single best return that we can have on a $1 of capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price," Walmart CFO John David Rainey said on the company's earnings call.
Major companies like Walmart, Costco, Apple, Home Depot and General Motors have all confirmed in recent weeks they're applying for refunds.
It's unlikely that most companies will give money directly back to shoppers who already bought products with higher prices because of tariffs. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs that were ruled illegal cost the typical American household $700 last year.
UPS, FedEx and DHL said they will directly refund customers. UPS recently updated its website with details on how importers can claim to get money back.
In total, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said it could owe up to $166 billion to more than 330,000 importers. The new filing notes $85 billion in refunds have been accepted so far, and the $20.6 billion represents money that has successfully gone back to importers who filed for refunds on the government's online portal.
A U.S. trade official previously overstated the amount of money that had gone out to companies by $10 billion, the filing noted.
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(NEW YORK) -- The top financial officer in New York City on Thursday warned that artificial intelligence could put thousands of workers in the nation’s largest metropolis out of a job as soon as this year, while acknowledging that the ultimate impact of AI remains uncertain.
The only sure thing, New York City Comptroller Mark Levin said in a new report: AI promises a “radical transformation” in the globe’s financial capital, influencing everything from wages to pension payments to Wall Street profits.
Levin, a Democratic former New York City Council member, predicted a range of scenarios both positive and negative, gauging the likelihood of outcomes as bullish as a broad-based productivity boom and as detrimental as mass layoffs.
City policymakers stand to play a central role in the technology’s ultimate fate, Levin added, calling for urgent steps like creating a multi-billion dollar financial cushion in case economic calamity strikes.
“There is no city in America – and perhaps none on earth – more exposed to both the promise and peril of artificial intelligence than New York City. And there are few places with more power to steer the transformation ahead,” Levin said in the report.
New York City hosts "hundreds of firms competing to make New York the capital of applied AI," Levine added, as well as roughly one million workers who labor in Manhattan office towers, many of whom stand at risk of AI disruption. The high stakes exemplify a reckoning likely to play out in cities nationwide, he said.
“Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction,” Levin said, saying local policies should complement much-needed efforts at the federal level. “We are not helpless.”
The report comes as the stock market and the economy overall have both come to increasingly rely on massive spending on AI to propel continued growth, even as companies warn of job losses tied to the technology.
A wave of thousands of job cuts attributed to artificial intelligence over recent months has taken hold in industries as diverse as tech and airlines. In April, AI company Anthropic opted against releasing its latest model, Mythos, expressing concern that the tool could be used to bypass cybersecurity protections across the internet.
Blockbuster earnings from chip giant Nvidia on Wednesday, meanwhile, rebuked fears of a slowdown in the rip-roaring pace of growth for the artificial intelligence behemoth.
In his report, Levin assessed five potential scenarios for AI uptake in New York City, focusing on potential economic downsides and benefits of each. The forecast draws upon national AI scenarios developed by Moody’s Analytics, adapting them for New York City, Levin said.
In the most likely outcome, dubbed the “AI-Empowered Economy,” Levin predicted that AI would improve productivity while delivering moderate economic growth, including an average of about 52,000 jobs added each year through 2030. Levin pegged the likelihood of this outcome at 35%.
A more pessimistic scenario, which Levin called “AI Falls Flat," foresees a drop-off in AI investment and an accompanying stock market slide. If this outcome comes to pass, New York City would lose about 52,500 jobs as soon as this year, suffering temporary ill-effects akin to those that coincide with a recession, Levin said. The probability of this scenario, he added, stands at 25%.
Other possible outcomes include “faster-than-expected AI” adoption that improves productivity but replaces jobs, as well as an “AI shockwave” that upends white-collar employment.
The "most optimistic" of the five scenarios, Levin says, is a "Productivity Boon," in which AI-driven productivity growth complements job growth, rather than displacing it, boosting compensation in the process. Levin puts the likelihood of this outcome at 15%.
To be sure, Levin said, the potential economic impact of AI remains highly uncertain. Other economic trends unrelated to AI could also hold significant implications for the city's economy, Levin added, pointing to a historic oil shock that has driven up fuel and grocery prices.
Levin touted the role of local government in responding to the changes wrought by AI, whether they prove favorable or otherwise.
"These are not questions we can leave to Silicon Valley, Washington, or the market alone. New Yorkers must help shape the future ourselves," Levin said.
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(NEW YORK) -- U.S. Treasury yields soared in recent days as the Iran war stoked inflation fears, threatening to drive up borrowing costs for everything from mortgages to credit cards to auto loans.
The yields on 30-year bonds – the amount paid to a bondholder annually – touched their highest point since 2007. Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at about 4.69% on Tuesday, marking a roughly three-quarter percentage point jump from the start of the war on Feb. 28.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries retreated on Wednesday, registering at 4.58%. Still, yields exceed the level reached during a bond selloff in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In this case, a global oil shock has pushed up energy prices which in turn has trickled into other costs, such as groceries.
As a result, bonds have become less attractive. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
“It’s really all about the Iran war and its inflationary impact,” Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans because Treasury rates influence the rates offered by lenders.
Long-term Treasury yields help set interest payments for mortgages, credit cards, car loans and just about any other type of borrowing, Patrice Carrington, a professor of real estate at New York University, told ABC News.
The reason for the rise in borrowing costs is that regulated lenders are required to hold reserve assets, often made up in part by U.S. Treasuries, Carrington added. When Treasury yields rise, it raises the costs incurred by banks holding Treasuries on their books. Lenders, in turn, offset those added expenses with higher borrowing costs.
“The bank will pass along that higher cost of capital to any consumer loan,” Carrington said.
The onset of this pain for consumers is exemplified by the housing market, where the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.72% as of Monday, Mortgage News Daily data showed. Mortgage rates have climbed three-quarters of a percentage point from pre-war levels.
“That’s a really big jump,” Rossman said.
Each percentage-point rise in a mortgage rate can impose thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.
Credit card rates, by contrast, have remained flat over the course of the Iran war, though at heightened levels, Rossman said.
The average credit card interest rate stands at 19.57%, just slightly below where it stood before the war began, Bankrate data showed. At the start of 2026, futures markets expected the Fed to likely cut interest rates at least once by the end of the year, which would put downward pressure on credit card rates.
As the Fed weathers a renewed bout of inflation, however, markets estimate about a 50% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged over the course of the year and a 37% chance of a rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Markets peg the odds of a rate cut this year at less than 2%.
As a result, credit card rates "are staying higher for longer" than many observers anticipated, Rossman said.
Analysts differed in their recommendations for consumers weighing whether to move forward now with securing a loan or wait for a potential decline in interest rates.
Liu Lu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, said mortgage rates are unlikely to decline substantially in the near-term, meaning borrowers who can afford a loan at current rates may as well take the plunge.
“I wouldn’t bet on trying to catch the opportune moment,” Lu told ABC News.
Carrington, on the other hand, counseled patience for loan seekers.
Eventually, the economy will falter and the Fed will cut interest rates, pushing down borrowing costs, according to Carrington.
“We’re long overdue for a downturn,” Carrington said. “I absolutely think borrowers should wait.”
In the meantime, the impact of elevated bond yields on consumers isn't entirely negative. The trend means better returns for investors who place their money into financial instruments such as money market funds or high-interest savings accounts, which are historically safer investments than the stock market.
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(NEW YORK) -- A jury on Monday found that Elon Musk waited too long to bring claims accusing OpenAI, under Sam Altman’s leadership, of abandoning its public-benefit mission as it moved toward a for-profit structure.
The nine-person advisory jury determined that the claims against OpenAI and Altman were barred due to the statute of limitations. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers accepted the determination and dismissed the claims.
The three-week trial at a federal courthouse in Oakland, California, featured testimony from Musk and Altman, as well as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
When Musk sued OpenAI and Altman two years ago, he claimed that the company abandoned its mission of benefiting humanity.
Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, said he reached an agreement with the company's leaders on the nonprofit course of the firm when it launched in 2015.
Musk accused the company of later breaching agreement when it made ChatGPT-4 available for use by Microsoft -- meaning the tech giant got access to the then-most powerful version of its popular chatbot under an exclusive licensing agreement. Microsoft and OpenAI have renegotiated the exclusive licensing agreement, allowing OpenAI to strike deals with other tech firms.
OpenAI rebuked the charges, calling them "baseless." Microsoft also denied any wrongdoing. Musk, the world's richest person, counts $803 billion in wealth, according to Forbes. He was seeking $150 billion in damages from the tech companies, as well as the removal of Altman from OpenAI's board of directors.
Musk also sought a legal order that requires OpenAI to abide by its alleged founding mission of aiding humanity and retaining its nonprofit form
OpenAI, which is not publicly traded, valued itself at $852 billion after a round of funding in March. Microsoft's value -- as measured by market capitalization -- stands at about $3.1 trillion.
Musk pleaded two claims against OpenAI: unjust enrichment and breach of charitable trust.
Lawyers for Altman argued that Musk was motivated by a pursuit of control over OpenAI, rather than an effort to safeguard its non-profit status. In fact, Musk sought to fold OpenAI into Tesla -- a move that would have absorbed the venture into a for-profit entity, lawyers for Altman said in a legal filing.
In 2018, Musk told a former OpenAI employee that financial support from Tesla would help OpenAI compete with tech giant Google, the filing said.
"Tesla [was] the only path that could even hope to hold a candle to Google," Musk said, according to the legal filing.
For his part, Musk said in the lawsuit that the agreement on OpenAI's non-profit status was memorialized in a legal filing when OpenAI was incorporated.
In the lawsuit, Musk alleged that Altman and OpenAI President Greg Brockman reaffirmed the founding agreement in written messages over the ensuing years.
"[I] remain enthusiastic about the non-profit structure!" Altman wrote to Musk in 2017, according to the lawsuit.
Musk, who helped bankroll OpenAI, launched a rival for-profit AI company in 2023 called xAI, which built a chatbot that competes with ChatGPT.
Acknowledging his previous criticism of the pace and ambitions of AI development, Musk said in a conference call on X in July 2023 that he entered the industry reluctantly.
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