{"id":1365658,"date":"2024-10-29T11:46:27","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T16:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/?p=1365658"},"modified":"2024-10-30T23:27:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T04:27:00","slug":"final-ut-tyler-poll-of-this-election-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/?p=1365658","title":{"rendered":"Final UT Tyler poll of this election cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1365778\" src=\"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-225x188.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"225\" height=\"188\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-225x188.jpg 225w, https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-419x350.jpg 419w, https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-768x641.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1.jpg 810w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/>TYLER \u00e2\u20ac\u201c Former President Donald J. Trump has a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in Texas, 51% to 46%, according to a pre-election poll conducted by The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research. This finding is similar to results of a June poll that showed Trump with a five-point lead over President Joe Biden among likely Texas voters, 48% to 43%, with fewer undecided voters closer to the November 5, 2024, election, according to Dr. Kenneth A. Wink, UT Tyler professor and poll director.<\/p>\n<p>The 5% lead for Trump is slightly smaller than his 5.6% win over Biden in Texas in 2020, and significantly smaller than his 9% win over Hillary Clinton in Texas in 2016. Fifty percent of all respondents thought the election would be \u00e2\u20ac\u0153close,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d with 63% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans expecting a close election.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The margin of the election will likely determine whether pundits classify Texas as a red state or a battleground state in 2026 and 2028,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d said Wink.<\/p>\n<p>In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Ted Cruz led Rep. Colin Allred by 2% among likely voters, 47% to 45%. This was in line with the June poll showing Cruz with a 3%-point lead over Allred among likely voters, 45% to 42%, again, with fewer undecided voters in the October poll, Wink noted. The closer<br \/>\nrace for U.S. Senate than for President is confirmed by other polls that show that what once was a three to 11 percentage point lead for Cruz throughout much of the year has shrunk to a three to five percentage point lead in late September and October, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Though the race is close, more Republicans than Democrats claim they will be voting on election day, and voters who intend to vote on election day tend to turn out at rates lower than those who plan to vote early,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Wink said. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153However, if Republicans favoring Cruz turn out to vote on election<br \/>\nday at the same rates of voters who say they intend to early vote, Sen. Cruz could well win by a three to four percentage point margin.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n<p>There has also been a recent shift in the policy issues Texans believe are the most important in the election, according to Wink. In the June poll, Texas likely voters had \u00e2\u20ac\u0153securing the border\u00e2\u20ac\u009d (39%), abortion (15%), and inflation (13%) as the most important issues. Additionally, among those listing<br \/>\nabortion as the most important issue, those favoring \u00e2\u20ac\u0153reproductive rights\u00e2\u20ac\u009d outnumbered those favoring \u00e2\u20ac\u0153restricting abortions\u00e2\u20ac\u009d by 11% to 4%, respectively. In the October poll, 29% of likely voters listed abortion as the most important issue, 24% listed \u00e2\u20ac\u0153securing the border,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d and 17% cited<br \/>\ninflation. Interestingly, those citing abortion as the major issue are now split differently in the other direction, with 12% believing \u00e2\u20ac\u0153reproductive rights\u00e2\u20ac\u009d is the most important issue and 17% citing \u00e2\u20ac\u0153restriction abortion\u00e2\u20ac\u009d as the most important issue, Wink added.<\/p>\n<p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Ironically, it seems that the national and state Democratic Party focus on abortion as a winning issue for the Democrats may have the unintentional effect of mobilizing pro-life voters in Texas,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Wink said. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The Trump lead represents the typical 5%-6% point lead most polls have shown over<br \/>\nthe last two months or so for the former President, in Texas. The smaller Cruz lead is consistent with a tightening race for the Senate seat, with voter turnout likely to be the deciding factor in the Senate race.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TYLER \u00e2\u20ac\u201c Former President Donald J. Trump has a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in Texas, 51% to 46%, according to a pre-election poll conducted by The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research. This finding is similar to results of a June poll that showed Trump with &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/?p=1365658\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Final UT Tyler poll of this election cycle<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":65,"featured_media":1365677,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-225x188.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[177],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1365658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news-archive-archives"],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-06-10 10:26:43","action":"change-status","newStatus":"trash","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/wp-content\/media\/2024\/10\/UTTYLER1-225x188.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1365658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/65"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1365658"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1365658\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1365779,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1365658\/revisions\/1365779"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1365677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1365658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1365658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ktbb.com\/post\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1365658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}