Time will tell with Iran.
Posted/updated on: June 18, 2026 at 3:57 pm
So, we have a Memorandum of Understanding between the Trump administration and whomever it is that’s nominally running that broken, malfeasant, dishonest nation that we call Iran.
Already, the critics are weighing in. The usual suspects on the left are saying that Trump, after starting an “unnecessary war,” got nothing more than what Obama got from the JCPOA – a.k.a. the “Iran Deal” – back in 2015.
Here’s Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer:
After more than 100 days of bloodshed, 13 Americans killed, hundreds more wounded, tens of billions of dollars spent, what exactly did we get out of Trump’s failed war?”
Critics on the right are calling out Trump for not “finishing the job.” They argue, not unreasonably, that a purely diplomatic deal with Iran is impossible. An agreement signed on Monday will be violated early on Tuesday. Righty critics argue that only “boots on the ground” (how I detest that shopworn cliché) and a total military conquest of Iran can assure the world that Iran won’t resume its malfeasance at the first opportunity.
But there is exactly zero chance of “boots on the ground” (there it is again). Zip. Zilch. None.
With respect to Iran either not making or violating a deal, President Trump said this:
I let ‘em know, I said, look, if you don’t adhere to the agreement – I don’t want to do that – but we’re gonna bomb the hell out of you.”
Here’s how I’m calling it.
I said in this space last week that something had to give in Iran. I also recognize that the politics of the moment weigh heavily on the policy of the moment. If the Iranians have been “tapping us along” as we discussed last week, Trump may well be trying now to tap the Iranians along past the midterms. If he can, for the next 140 days or so, keep the Strait of Hormuz fully open and oil again flowing at market prices, it improves the (still long) odds of Republicans keeping control of Congress following the midterms.
As to Schumer and the rest of the critics on the left, what’s different from Obama’s JCPOA is that unlike what they thought about Obama, the Iranian theocrats know for certain that Donald Trump is a badass. They know that he will “bomb the hell out of them” if they don’t behave.
And unlike Obama’s deal, it’s not Obama making it. Nor is it Bush, Clinton, Bush or Biden – all of whom were willing at times to talk tough but never willing to act tough. And unlike the JCPOA in 2015, in 2026 Iran’s economy is on its knees while those now in charge there have fresh memories of how their predecessors died.
Will this deal work? Who knows? Time will tell. Critics from both sides may yet be proven right.
But something had to give, and something now has.
And for all the uncertainty, to an honest observer it’s undeniable that the U.S. is its best position vis. a. vis. Iran in nearly half a century.
