Key takeaways from primaries in LA, Iowa and New Jersey: Wins for incumbents, a loss for Trump

(NEW YORK) -- The results of House, governor and mayoral primary elections in six states on Tuesday night show some promising signs for incumbents and the Democratic establishment and the potential limits of an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

They also show what a key toss-up race jolted by a congressman's absence will look like in the November midterms.

Here are some takeaways from the June 2 primaries.

Karen Bass is first LA mayor in more than 20 years to face runoff

In Los Angeles' closely watched nonpartisan mayoral primary race, embattled incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has reason for enthusiasm after months of uncertainty, while reality star Spencer Pratt still has to play the waiting game, although he appears to have put up a strong showing. ABC News projected on Tuesday that Bass will advance to a runoff in November, meaning she will have a shot to keep her seat.

Bass, the first woman and second African American elected to lead the city, is the first Los Angeles mayor to face a runoff in more than two decades.

Bass dedicated her reelection campaign to emphasizing her past experience and achievements in the role, but faced scrutiny over her record and battled criticism for her handling of last year's Los Angeles wildfires. Bass, who was away from the city on a planned diplomatic trip to Ghana when the Palisades Fire first erupted, has pushed back on criticism over her management of the fire, saying earlier this year that her focus "is on the lives and on the homes."

Criticism of Bass gave an opening to Spencer Pratt, the former star of "The Hills," who ran a campaign focused on calling out Bass' handling of the fires and saying that he'd fix a city he felt had become broken.

It's still unclear if Pratt will advance to the next round with Bass, or whether progressive city councilmember Nithya Raman will end up in the runoff. As of Wednesday morning, Pratt is in second place and leads Raman by around 8 percentage points, but there is still around an estimated 40% of the vote left to be counted.

Pratt's current second-place position, which could shift, might be read by some as a limit on the allure of celebrity candidates. However, it could also be seen as a sign of the strength of Pratt running a campaign with a clear message and going beyond relying just on name recognition.

In the state's marquee race for governor, meanwhile, it's still too early to tell which candidates will advance in the top-two primary -- with many mail ballots still to be counted.

As of Wednesday morning, Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton and former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, have the most votes, with billionaire businessman Tom Steyer -- a Democratic candidate who spent tens of millions in the race -- running behind them.

In Iowa, a loss for Trump-supported candidate in gubernatorial primary and potential win for the Democratic establishment

Trump's key endorsements during the 2026 election cycle have usually resulted in wins for his preferred candidates, including in Kentucky's recent 4th Congressional District primaries where a Trump-backed challenger unseated the maverick GOP Rep. Thomas Massie.

But one major Trump-backed candidate in Iowa conceded in his primary.

Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra, who currently represents Iowa's 4th Congressional District and was mounting a statewide bid for governor, conceded late Tuesday to GOP opponent and "Make America Healthy Again" movement supporter, Zach Lahn, in the gubernatorial primary in Iowa.

As of Wednesday morning, he trailed Lahn by around 1 percentage point.

Lahn will face Iowa state auditor Rob Sand, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, in November. Democrats have feted Sand as a candidate who can flip the governorship by appealing to voters across the aisle, although he'll still face an uphill battle in a state that voted for Trump by 13 points in 2024.

Meanwhile, Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek's projected win by over 20 percentage points in the Iowa Democratic primary for Senate could be seen as a win for establishment Democrats, in a year when progressive challengers have been making waves in primaries across the country and occasionally unseating incumbents.

Turek himself is not an average politician. He has a unique background, as a four-time Paralympian born with spina bifida after his father was exposed to Agent Orange while serving in Vietnam. But he was also, to an extent, seen as the Democratic establishment's choice, given that he received support from Democratic groups that are aligned with Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who did not formally endorse Turek, and took on positions that tacked to the center.

Turek will face Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson, the projected winner of the Republican primary, in what is set to become one of the most closely watched Senate races of 2026. The seat is opening up as Republican incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring.

Key New Jersey matchup gets set amid Kean's absence

ABC News has projected that Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, will be the Democratic nominee for Congress in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, in what is set to be a closely watched matchup between incumbent GOP Rep. Tom Kean and Bennett this November -- especially given Kean's unusual absence from Congress for months. Trump has backed Kean regardless of his absence.

New Jersey's 7th District was already a top target for Democrats this year even before Kean's disappearance occurred. The district is rated as a toss up-by the Cook Political Report, and Trump just barely carried it in 2024.

Kean flipped the seat in 2022 for Republicans, just a few years after Democrat Tom Malinowski flipped the seat when he won it in 2018. But Kean has been absent from Congress for months, and has not voted since March 5. For weeks, Kean's office has defended the congressman's hiatus -- telling reporters that he is addressing an unspecific medical issue.

Kean said in a statement on Tuesday afternoon, "I am optimistic about the road ahead, and ready to earn the support of voters in every corner of this district." A spokesperson for Kean also told ABC News that the congressman voted by mail last week.

ABC News' Emily Chang, Clarissa Gonzalez, Juhi Doshi, Gaby Vinick, Lauren Peller, John Parkinson and Jay O'Brien contributed to this report.

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