Democrat edges out leading Republican in Texas Senate race—GOP poll

AUSTIN – Newsweek reports that a new poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race shows Attorney General Ken Paxton, the leading candidate in the Republican primary, trailing former Representative Colin Allred, a Democrat, in the Lone Star State. Democrats are hoping to make the race for the seat competitive, particularly if Paxton defeats Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary, but a Cornyn campaign spokesperson told Newsweek the campaign is “confident” in his chances.

Republicans currently hold a Senate majority with 53 seats, compared to 47 seats held by Democrats. The Democratic Party hopes to take back the majority in the 2026 midterms but face a challenging map. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris, and North Carolina, which backed President Donald Trump by only about three points in 2024, are viewed as Democrats’ best flip opportunities in the midterms. Beyond those two, they’ll have to flip states Trump won by double-digits to reclaim a majority. Other double-digit Trump states they are eyeing include Alaska, Florida, Iowa and Ohio—but Republicans are favored in each of those races. Texas has for decades been a reliably Republican state. Although it became more competitive in the 2010s, Democrats have been unable to flip it, and the state did move rightward again last year. Still, some Democrats believe it could be competitive next year if Trump’s approval fuels a 2018-style “blue wave.”