$1 billion for school vouchers won’t be enough

AUSTIN – The San Antonio Express-News says Republican state leaders pushing a private school voucher plan have emphasized it would transform the face of education in Texas. They also say its cost would be limited to $1 billion for the first year. But projections from the nonpartisan Legislative Budget Board show demand for the program providing students with taxpayer funds to subsidize homeschooling or private education options could quickly outpace that initial investment, pressuring lawmakers to pour more and more money into it, while pulling millions from public schools. According to the LBB, demand for the program is projected to grow from $1 billion worth of vouchers for its first year of operation in 2027 to $3.2 billion the following year, then $3.8 billion and $4.6 billion by 2030. In other words, the $1 billion budget line on this biennium’s state budget could grow to more than $8 billion over the two-year period up for approval by the Legislature in 2029 as more and more students seek a voucher.

State Sen. Brandon Creighton, a Conroe Republican carrying his chamber’s version of the voucher bill, Senate Bill 2, has described the fiscal note as a “fairy tale” because lawmakers would need to sign off on any future funding increases. “Senate Bill 2 is entirely subject to a future appropriations process and the Legislature making a decision to grow the population of students served,” he said during a committee hearing earlier this year. Although the program’s initial investment would be set at $1 billion under Creighton’s bill, there are other pathways to grow it, even without lawmakers’ support. Gov. Greg Abbott, the state’s biggest voucher proponent, has been able to circumvent the Legislature for funding increases in the past, namely with his ongoing border security initiative, Operation Lone Star, which began with an appropriation from the Legislature of less than $3 billion. Abbott grew the program by billions more while the Legislature was out of session by moving money amongst state agencies with the approval of a small group of lawmakers, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the House speaker. Critics warn the same thing could happen with vouchers. “What will most likely happen based on what we’ve seen in other states, to start drawing down those dollars… it’s really unlimited,” said Jaime Puente, a policy analyst with the left-leaning group Every Texan who is critical of vouchers. “It’s really an unlimited amount of funding, an unlimited amount of seats that people will be advertised to with state dollars.”