Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens

DALLAS — The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 1.7 percent.

This is smaller than the previous month’s forecast of 2.2 percent for 2024.????????

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices,?and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. Three of the four forecasts declined this month as a result of weaker leading indexes and lower oil futures prices. Downward benchmark revisions to second quarter job growth also played a role.

Texas employment growth has disappointed in recent months, increasing only an annualized 0.9 percent in November and 0.1 percent in October.

“Texas employment expansion was weak, with only 10,000 jobs added in November,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Gains were concentrated in smaller private sector services, such as information and financial activities, although some larger sectors also expanded including the education and health sector and government.”

The forecast suggests 230,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.2 million.????

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, increased in almost all of Texas’ major metros in November. This includes Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to?seasonally adjusted numbers?from the Dallas Fed.???? ????

The rate was unchanged in Austin–Round Rock.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate increased to 4.2 percent in November.?????