ERCOT meteorologist warns of severe weather

DALLAS – The Dallas Morning News says the lead meteorologist for the Texas power grid said Tuesday there is an elevated chance for extreme winter weather similar to the storm that pushed the power grid to the brink of collapse in 2021. Chris Coleman, ERCOT’s supervisor of operational forecasting, said the elevated chance of severe winter weather comes even though he predicted warmer weather patterns for January and February. He presented his forecast after a recent ERCOT analysis showed an 80% chance the grid would see blackouts if it experienced a storm on par with the February 2021 storm that led to more than 200 deaths. “I don’t have a number to put on it, but I kind of would call this similar to a tornado watch,” Coleman said during a presentation to ERCOT’s board of directors. “We’ll call this a ‘cold extreme watch.’ Exactly when and whether or not it impacts Texas or the East Coast of the U.S. or Central Asia is yet to be determined.”

ERCOT leadership gave multiple winter weather presentations Tuesday, with CEO Pablo Vegas’ overview focused on the grid’s state as Texas heads into the coldest months of the year. He said the threat of power emergencies is up slightly from last year because of power demand growth, likely driven by electricity-hungry data centers. That demand increase has been mitigated by large increases in the number of large-scale battery storage facilities built in Texas this year. Texas has also seen a large jump in solar power production this year. However, the renewable energy resource is less effective at providing needed power in winter. During winter months, peak electricity demand tends to occur in the early morning and late evening, as the sun rises and sets, when residential heaters and other household appliances are most often operated. ERCOT officials estimated 17% of solar capacity will produce electricity during peak demand hours this winter, compared with 76% in the summer. “We get a lot less productivity out of that resource from the winter to the summer,” Vegas said.