Dallas Fed jobs report shows slowing in Texas

DALLAS — The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 2.1 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.3 percent.

This is a decrease from the previous month’s forecast of 2.5 percent for 2024.????????

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices,?and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“Texas employment contracted as 6,600 jobs were lost in October,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Losses were concentrated in the private sector services, particularly professional and business services, although some sectors expanded such as information and financial activities. Government and goods producing sectors also expanded. In the major metropolitan areas, employment grew in San Antonio, Austin and Fort Worth, while it fell in Houston and Dallas.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:???????

The forecast suggests 288,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.3 million.????
Texas employment decreased by an annualized 0.6 percent month over month in October, while the September growth was revised upward to 3.7 percent.??

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, increased in each of Texas’ major metros in October. This includes Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to?seasonally adjusted numbers?from the Dallas Fed.???? ????

The Texas statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent in October.?????

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on?DallasFed.org.????