Renewable growth in Texas hinges on fate of Biden climate law

HOUSTON – The Houston Chronicle reports the fate of the booming renewable energy industry in Texas during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term depends largely on how his administration treats President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Roughly $154 billion in clean energy investments have been announced since passage of the IRA in 2022, with about 80% targeted for Republican districts. That includes $4.5 billion of announced investment and more than 22,000 announced jobs in Texas, according to data from Utah State University and research firm Atlas Public Policy. As a result, most experts don’t expect a complete repeal of the monumental climate bill. Still, modifications are possible, and Texas could be among the most impacted, given that it not only has the most renewable resources in the country but also a huge pipeline of pending clean energy projects.

Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 supercharged the buildout of clean energy across the country, providing tax credits and other incentives as part of the Biden administration’s effort to fight climate change. Trump has vowed to “rescind all unspent funds” under the bill. Project 2025, a conservative policy playbook Trump has repeatedly disavowed but was created by some of his allies, has called for legislation fully repealing Inflation Reduction Act tax credits. Yet because so much money has flowed into conservative states, if Republicans modify the law they would likely to take a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer to it, said Maheep Mandloi, director of clean energy equity research at the investment firm Mizuho Securities. He cited 18 House Republicans who wrote a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., in August urging him to maintain some of the IRA. Joseph Osha, an analyst at the investment bank Guggenheim Securities focused on renewables, said he’ll be watching how Republicans do the math to extend Trump’s 2017 tax law, much of which is due to expire next year. If Republicans want to claim victory on tax cuts more than they want to take credit for the IRA’s investments and jobs, the Biden administration’s bonus tax credits for clean energy development could be on the chopping block, including those tied to sourcing materials from domestic manufacturers and investing in communities whose economics depended on fossil fuels.