AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Texas on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats in Texas will once again wait on Election Day to find out whether this is the year they can win a statewide race after three decades of losing to Republicans.

They’re pinning their hopes on the U.S. Senate, where Republican incumbent Ted Cruz faces a challenge from U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and civil rights attorney who flipped a competitive U.S. House seat to take office in 2018.

With so many Democrats defending Senate seats nationwide, Texas is one of the only states where a Republican senator is in a competitive race. Spending on the contest has topped $100 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks ad spending, swamping the money spent on the presidential election in Texas.

It’s been 30 years since Democrats won a statewide race in the Lone Star State, but that’s not for lack of effort. In 2002, Democrats were excited to run a “dream team” of candidates for Senate, governor and lieutenant governor in hopes that the racially diverse ticket would harness a new generation of Texas voters who could flip the state. They didn’t.

More recently, in 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke broke fundraising records in his race against Cruz. He lost. Two years later, Democrats hoped that M.J. Hegar would build upon O’Rourke’s momentum to defeat Sen. John Cornyn. She lost, too.

No Democrat has won Texas in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976, although Bill Clinton ran close in three-way contests in both 1992 and 1996. A unexpected win in Texas for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris would all but end Republican former President Donald Trump’s bid to return to the White House.

Texas has 38 U.S. House seats, but only three districts — all in South Texas — are considered competitive.

In the state’s 28th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar seeks reelection following his indictment on charges of bribery and money laundering earlier this year. In the nearby 34th District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Mayra Flores in a rematch of a 2022 contest that Gonzalez won by about 9 percentage points. In the Rio Grande Valley, Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz will again face 2022 Democratic nominee Michelle Vallejo in the 15th District.

The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.