Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast strengthens

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.

This is an increase from the previous month’s forecast of 2.2 percent for 2024.        

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“Texas employment growth was strong again in September, adding 33,800 jobs. Employment growth has normalized to a rate more consistent with trend growth. This comes after a summer of volatile data characterized by storms that disrupted labor markets in large parts of the state,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Gains in September were led by construction, education and health services, and professional and business services. Employment fell in information, financial activities and government. Employment growth in the major metropolitan areas was led by Austin followed by Dallas and Houston.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:       

The forecast suggests 348,900 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.4 million.    

Texas employment increased by an annualized 2.9 percent month over month in September, while the August growth was revised upward to 7.7 percent.  

The unemployment rate decreased in Dallas–Plano–Irving, Fort Worth–Arlington and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.    

The rate remained unchanged in Austin–Round Rock, in Brownsville–Harlingen, El Paso, and Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land.

The rate increased in Laredo.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent in September.