Internal polling memo has warning signs for Senate Republicans

WASHINGTON – Politico reports that the top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, according to an internal polling memo obtained by POLITICO. The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the final weeks of the election. Republicans are still favored to take control of the chamber, and their data brought some hopeful news with tightening races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But other pickup opportunities, namely Maryland and Michigan, are moving in the wrong direction. And Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, one of the two incumbents running in a state Trump won in 2020, looks surprisingly strong in Ohio.

The 2024 map is full of offensive targets for Republicans, including open seats in Michigan, Maryland and Arizona. They have a near-certain pickup in West Virginia and polling has consistently shown the GOP is ahead in Montana. But it’s unclear how many of the other seats Republicans are poised to flip. They’ve struggled from a serious fundraising gap at the candidate level. And Democrats have built large polling leads in some battlegrounds. And now two GOP-held states, Texas and Nebraska, may be emerging as late-breaking problem spots. The memo warns of two defensive problems: In Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is only up 1 point in the latest poll, and Law describes Nebraska as “a serious trouble-spot” where they are polling to “assess whether intervention is necessary” to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer. (The incumbent released a poll last week showing her up 6 points.) SLF or allied groups have been repeatedly polling across the top states, including twice in September alone in some of them, as they weigh financial investments in the final stretch. The nine-page memo, dated Oct. 8, noted that the group “will roll out further investments in these top-priority Senate races, based on our latest polling” by early next week.