ERCOT’s 2030 load projection shocked lawmakers

AUSTIN – The San Antonio Express-News says that energy experts are challenging the state grid operator’s jaw-dropping projection for how high electrical demand could rise by 2030, saying that even as Texas faces explosive growth, there is no way its thirst for electricity will reach 150 gigawatt in less than six years — a forecast that has put lawmakers in a tizzy. To date, the highest peak demand recorded by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is about 85.5 gigawatts. And Juan Arteaga — a senior analyst with Enverus, which recently published its own study on demand projections — is skeptical of the motivation behind those who say it could rise 75% by the end of the decade. “These guys are not stupid,” Arteaga said. “They’re just using that number to push for either more funds or more infrastructure investment. They run the system. They know it’s unrealistic.”

Enverus puts its demand projection for Texas in 2030 at 93.5 gigawatts — still a 10% jump accounting for population growth and electric vehicles, but far less jarring than ERCOT’s estimate that total demand could more than double from its level in 2020. ERCOT’s latest end-of-decade projections sent shock waves through the Capitol that manifested during June hearings by the Texas House and Senate. The figure is still top of mind for lawmakers, as they consider increasing the Texas Energy Fund’s $5 billion of available taxpayer-backed funding to support low-interest loans for more natural gas plants. ERCOT stood by the estimate as recently as last week during a second energy-focused hearings at the Texas House. Rep. David Spiller, R-Jacksboro, asked ERCOT Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Woody Rickerson whether he concurred with the roughly 150 gigawatt estimate that CEO Pablo Vegas had shared with lawmakers. Rickerson said he did, as Spiller shared his concerns about what that level of sudden demand growth would do to the grid’s reliability. “We may be able to get there, should be able to get there. Hopefully, we’ll be able to get there in that time frame,” Spiller said about the challenge to increase generation capacity accordingly. “My concern is the interim. I mean, the next year, two, three, and four (years) are the biggest concerns that I’ve got.”