Will La Niña be weaker than expected?

TEXAS – The Dallas Morning News reports that a La Niña-influenced weather pattern that was forecast to develop this summer could be milder than expected — and that would be good news for people who live in Texas, especially those who depend on the weather for their livelihoods. Fifth-generation farmer Todd Kimbrell vividly remembers the last time a strong La Niña altered weather patterns in Texas, when an extended five-year dry spell between 2006 and 2011 wiped out crops. “That was really tough,” Kimbrell said. “It’s really hard to make a crop. It’s really hard to sustain a business when you don’t get rain … when everything you have depends on it.” That’s why farmers and ranchers were concerned this year when meteorologists forecast a strong La Niña. They expected it would fuel a strong hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and lead to drought conditions in parts of Texas.

Instead, this year’s La Niña has yet to develop. There’s still a 70% chance of a La Niña developing between August and October; and a 79% chance it will persist late into the winter, according to NOAA. But even if it does, it might not fuel the devastating storm season forecasters expected. Additionally, with a wetter spring and summer, the potential for drought could be less devastating. What does this mean for Texas? Even though this cycle happens in the Pacific Ocean, nearly 3,000 miles away, it can have a significant long-term impact on weather patterns for the state. Even though La Niña can increase the threat of hurricanes, the latest July forecasts suggest a less severe impact this year. In terms of droughts, farmers are still recovering. They’ve faced La Niña-fueled droughts before, and more hot, dry, weather could be a significant problem for them. Crop insurance is a potential safety net for farmers. While La Niña can exacerbate drought conditions, crop insurance can help protect farmers from losses. “Our farmers are having to deal with the recourse of past adverse weather losses and the amount of insurance that they can buy,” said Bree Nelson, a crop insurance agent for West Texas.