Electricity demand from AI, data centers – can ERCOT keep up?

HOUSTON – The Houston Chronicle says the rapid expansion of data centers, fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence platforms and the increasing digitization of the economy, is driving a surge in electricity demand in Texas and across the country that could soon be pushing the limits of what power grids can handle. Grid operators such as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas are rushing to adjust their demand forecasts amid projections by consulting firm McKinsey and the International Energy Agency that power load for data centers, which already consume 4% of the power on the U.S. grid, will double by the end of the decade.

In a recent podcast interview, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said the rapid speed at which data centers such as the $800 million facility Meta is building in Temple were coming online was “unheard of in terms of grid planning time scales.” “Historically, you’ve always been able to have years to contemplate a massive manufacturing facility coming online,” he said on the Energy Capital podcast. “Now we’re seeing 500- and 700-megawatt data centers being built in a year.” ERCOT reported earlier this month that peak power loads on its system would rise 6% by 2030 to 94.3 gigawatts — with the caveat there was an additional 62 gigawatts of additional load asking to connect to the grid. It didn’t detail where those load requests were coming from, and ERCOT declined to make officials available for this story. But Doug Lewin, an energy consultant in Austin, said data centers, along with new manufacturing facilities such as the semiconductor plants being built around Austin, crypto currency mining operations and growth in oil production in West Texas, were responsible for much of the new load requests. “Some of (the 62 gigawatts) will come, some of it won’t,” he said. “But even if it’s just one third of that, in five to six years time that’s shocking.”