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Friday June 05, 2026
(LONDON) -- Russia's Defense Ministry reported a major Ukrainian drone attack overnight into Thursday morning, with Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reporting that dozens of Ukrainian craft were intercepted while flying toward the capital.
Russia's Defense Ministry said on Telegram that its forces intercepted at least 427 Ukrainian drones and through Thursday morning. Moscow only publishes the number of Ukrainian drones and other projectiles it claims to have intercepted.
Sobyanin said that as of Thursday afternoon, at least 48 drones were shot down while flying toward the capital. Emergency responders, he said in posts to Telegram, were responding to several sites where falling drone debris was reported.
Ukraine's air force said that Russia also continued its long-range attacks overnight. The air force said on Telegram that Moscow launched 102 drones into the country overnight, of which 92 were intercepted or suppressed. Eight drones impacted across six locations, the air force said.
Ukraine's State Emergency Services said that at least four people were injured by Russian strikes in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, one other person was injured by a Russian attack in the northeastern Sumy region and seven people -- among them two children -- were injured in Kharkiv.
Cross-border attacks have continued despite both Kyiv and Moscow announcing their own rival temporary ceasefires.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week announced a unilateral truce on May 8 and May 9 to coincide with annual "Victory Day" celebrations, which mark the anniversary of the end of the Second World War.
Zelenskyy then said Ukraine would observe its own 24-hour ceasefire beginning at midnight on May 5. Russia did not partake in the truce, continuing missile and drone strikes across Ukraine as well as frontline activities.
Zelenskyy said in a Wednesday statement, "We can confirm that the Russian side has derailed the ceasefire regime," adding that Kyiv would decide on possible subsequent actions.
"Ukraine clearly stated that it would act in kind, taking into account Russia's persistent appeals through the media and social networks asking for a ceasefire during the Moscow parade," Zelenskyy said, referring to the planned military event in Moscow's Red Square on May 9.
Russia's Defense Ministry warned that it would "launch a retaliatory, massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv" if Ukraine attacked the Victory Day celebrations.
On Thursday, Zelenskyy again criticized Moscow's continued attacks. "Russia continues killing people while being completely irrationally concerned only about a few hours of silence in one part of Moscow," he said in a statement, referring to the May 9 celebrations.
"Ukraine will act fairly -- day by day. We proposed silence beginning at midnight on May 6. Yesterday and today, this regime has been violated by Russia," Zelenskyy added.
"In a mirror response and in reply to Russian strikes, our long-range sanctions will follow; in response to Russia's readiness to move toward diplomacy, we will move along the path of diplomacy," he added.
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(LONDON) -- At least one person was killed and two people were injured by an overnight Russian drone strike on a kindergarten building in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, local officials there said on Wednesday, as Moscow's cross-border attacks continued despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's unilateral declaration of a temporary ceasefire beginning at midnight on Tuesday.
Ukraine's air force said in a post to Telegram that Russia launched 108 drones and three missiles into the country overnight, of which 89 drones were intercepted or suppressed. The missiles and nine drones impacted across eight locations, the air force said.
Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, claimed to have downed at least 53 Ukrainian drones overnight. The ministry did not specify whether any Ukrainian drones were intercepted after the unilateral Ukrainian ceasefire came into effect at midnight on Tuesday.
Sumy was among several targets of Russia's overnight strikes. Ukraine's Interior Ministry said in posts to Telegram that at least four people were killed and 19 people injured by Russian strikes in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, which damaged infrastructure plus administrative and residential buildings.
In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, the ministry said, two women were injured by a drone strike on a house in the southwest of the city which also sparked a fire.
Ukraine's State Emergency Service also reported a Russian drone attack on an apartment building in the southern city of Kherson.
Tuesday night's attacks followed a major Russian missile and drone attack on several Ukrainian cities earlier in the day, in which officials said at least 28 people were killed.
Zelenskyy issued a statement on Wednesday condemning what he described as Russia's "brutal attacks" and Moscow's refusal to partake in the Kyiv-proposed 24-hour ceasefire.
"On all key frontline areas, assault operations are ongoing, and just since the beginning of today, the Russian army has carried out nearly 30 assault operations. More than 20 airstrikes involving over 70 aerial bombs were recorded just last night and this morning," Zelenskyy wrote.
"During the night, the Russian army also launched attacks with various types of drones," the Ukrainian president added.
"Ukraine has clearly stated that it will respond in kind, given the persistent Russian appeals through the media and social networks to maintain silence during the Moscow parade," Zelenskyy wrote, referring to the planned "Victory Day" celebrations in the Russian capital planned for May 9.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week announced a unilateral truce on May 8 and May 9. Zelenskyy then said Ukraine would mark its own 24-hour ceasefire beginning at midnight on May 5.
"Russia must end its current war. Even with the internet shut down and most Russians' communications blocked, it's absolutely clear that their leadership could emerge from the bunker and choose peace," Zelenskyy wrote. "Our diplomatic proposals are on the Russian side, and the only thing needed is Russia's willingness to move towards real peace."
"As of today, we note that the Russian side has disrupted the ceasefire. Based on the results of our military and intelligence evening reports, we will determine our further actions," he added.
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(LONDON) -- Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are expected to convene again at the State Department on Thursday for a second round of meetings amid the latest conflagration in the Middle East.
The first direct negotiations between the two states since 1993 are intended as preparatory meetings to shape future talks on a deal to normalize ties between the countries.
Thursday's meeting is expected to focus on extending a shaky ceasefire that has halted fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, long considered by experts as a "state within a state" wielding enormous influence over Lebanon's political, economic and security spheres.
The technocratic government in Beirut, which came to power in 2025, is juggling dual pressure campaigns -- sustained Israeli attacks and seizure of Lebanese territory on one hand and the internal threat of Hezbollah and its Iranian backers on the other.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said on Tuesday that the goal of the negotiations was to "stop hostilities, end the Israeli occupation of southern regions and deploy the [Lebanese] army all the way to the internationally recognized southern borders."
"We negotiate for ourselves," Aoun said. "We are no longer a pawn in anyone's game, nor an arena for anyone's wars. And we never will be again."
Paul Salem, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank, told ABC News from Beirut that Thursday's talks are "historically significant in what they might eventually lead to," but framed the meetings as the first steps on a long and difficult road.
The government in Beirut is facing "a prolonged conundrum," Salem said. "Iran is insisting on maintaining its presence and backing Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah seems to be happy to continue to play their role with Iran."
And in southern Lebanon, Israel seems intent on a devastating campaign and seizure of land which its Defense Minister Israel Katz has repeatedly said will be modeled on the destruction of Gaza.
"The Lebanese state needs to be able to bolster its credibility by not allowing a long-term Israeli occupation," Salem said.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office told ABC News of the talks that there is "one obstacle: Hezbollah the Iranian proxy holding Lebanon hostage and threatening Israel. Peace through strength: remove Hezbollah and peace becomes possible."
President Donald Trump's administration pushed for a ceasefire in Lebanon earlier this month, as the White House sought a pause in the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel following the first round of talks on April 14 -- a ceasefire Netanyahu seemingly had no choice but to support.
But Trump and his top officials have also made clear that Hezbollah cannot be allowed to retain its pre-war clout within the country, nor continue to pose a military threat to Israel.
"We will make Lebanon great again. It's about time we did so," Trump said over the weekend.
Ahead of Thursday's talks, a State Department official told ABC News, "The United States welcomes the productive engagement that began on April 14."
"We will continue to facilitate direct, good-faith discussions between the two governments," the spokesperson added.
A tentative ceasefire
Thursday's talks in Washington will resume amid a tentative U.S.-backed ceasefire, under which Israeli strikes against alleged Hezbollah targets continue in eastern and southern Lebanon.
Under the U.S.-backed deal, Israel retains the right to fire on what it deems an "imminent threat" to its troops. The IDF has fired several times on Hezbollah targets since the ceasefire began on April 17. On Tuesday, Hezbollah said it fired rockets and drones at Israeli forces for the first time since a 10-day truce took effect.
Israeli ground forces are still operating in southern Lebanon, with the goal, according to Israeli officials, of establishing a demilitarized "buffer zone" between the Israeli border and the Litani River, around 18 miles to the north.
The IDF says it is holding approximately 15 positions about six miles deep into southern Lebanon, which it says includes about 50 Lebanese villages. Israeli officials have blamed the Lebanese government for being unable or unwilling to keep Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border -- a responsibility set out in the U.S.-brokered November ceasefire.
The campaign includes the razing of dozens of Lebanese towns and villages, plus the forced -- and, at least for some, permanent -- displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.
Human Rights Watch said this month that more than a million people across the country have been forced to flee their homes -- nearly one-fifth of the entire population of the country. The Israeli evacuation orders have included all of southern Beirut, the suburbs of which are traditionally considered a Hezbollah stronghold.
Israeli action has killed at least 2,294 people and wounded another 7,544 people since March 2, Lebanon's Health Ministry said last week. The strikes included a barrage of more than 100 strikes within 10 minutes on April 8, killing at least 357 people across the country, Lebanese authorities said.
Israeli health officials say Hezbollah gunfire, rockets and drones have killed 20 Israelis since March 2 and injured hundreds of others.
On March 2, Hezbollah joined Iran in its response to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign launched against Iran on Feb. 28. With those strikes, Hezbollah broke a U.S.-backed cross-border ceasefire that had been in place since November 2024. Hezbollah said the attacks were retaliation for alleged Israeli violations of the same ceasefire.
Hezbollah defied assessments it had been substantially weakened by its two-year involvement in the war in Gaza, firing more than 6,500 munitions toward Israel in the first five weeks of renewed fighting, according to the IDF.
Hezbollah fighters have also inflicted significant casualties on invading Israeli forces. Sixteen Israel Defense Forces troops had been killed in the current round of fighting in Lebanon as of Wednesday. The IDF says it has killed more than 1,800 Hezbollah operatives since March 2.
"Hezbollah is back in business," Salem said. Israel's operation "enables Hezbollah to resume its resistance narrative. And it certainly suits Iran to keep the Lebanon front open and active, to keep Israel distracted and to drain some of its resources and attention."
Dual threats
Within Lebanon, Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have faced veiled threats from Hezbollah and Tehran.
After the first round of talks in Washington, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said Aoun's government was "subjecting Lebanon to these humiliations by negotiating directly with the Israeli enemy and listening to its dictates."
Hezbollah is not a party to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which seeks to sideline the Iranian-backed militant group.
Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah member of parliament, has called on Aoun to pull out of the talks. "We will reject and confront any attempt to impose political costs on Lebanon through concessions made to this Israeli enemy," Fadlallah told AFP this week, though said the group wants "the ceasefire to continue" along with an Israeli withdrawal.
A potential clash between Beirut and Hezbollah has been brewing since the Aoun-Salam government took power last year.
In an unprecedented step, The Lebanese cabinet has repeatedly asserted its ambition for Hezbollah to disarm and has declared all military activity by the group to be illegal. Earlier this month, the cabinet ordered security forces to restrict weapons in Beirut exclusively to state institutions
The state's all-volunteer Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is widely considered to be outgunned by Hezbollah, though it has around 80,000 personnel. Polls suggest the LAF is broadly popular among Lebanese people, but its multi-sectarian character has raised questions as to whether it would prove dependable in the event of renewed communal fighting.
But despite Hezbollah's mauling in the last round of fighting with Israel and the loss of a key neighboring partner with the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad in 2024, observers say the group -- which is part of the Lebanese government and holds more than a dozen seats in parliament -- retains extensive military and political power, particularly in parts of the capital Beirut and in its southern and eastern heartlands.
Before the outbreak of its latest war with Israel in 2023, estimates of Hezbollah's military strength ranged from 30,000 to more than 50,000 operatives.
Israeli leaders have committed to an open-ended seizure of parts of southern Lebanon and demanded Beirut's assistance in the total disarmament of Hezbollah, raising fears that Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system could fracture and the country slide back into the kind of civil war that killed more than 100,000 people between 1975 and 1990.
Israeli leaders have been clear that they will not tolerate Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon, vowing to keep troops there until the militant group is disarmed.
Risking such a calamity on behalf of Israel -- a country which has invaded Lebanon six times since 1978, which is now again occupying parts of the south and which Lebanese authorities say has killed thousands of Lebanese civilians in three and a half years of war with Hezbollah -- may be deeply unpopular.
LAF chief Gen. Rodolphe Haykal said on Tuesday that Lebanon "will reclaim every inch of its land under Israeli occupation," according to a readout posted to the LAF's X page.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah's patrons in Iran -- specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- appear unwilling to give up their Lebanese ally, which for decades has been perhaps the most potent proxy within of Tehran's "forward defense" strategy by which Iran has sought to deter and punish U.S.-Israeli action against it.
Prominent Iranian leaders who survived the initial U.S.-Israeli onslaught demanded that Lebanon be included in the two-week ceasefire announced on April 8. "For years, Hezbollah has been fighting with the Zionist regime, but in the recent war, Hezbollah fought for the Islamic Republic," parliament speaker and lead Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said.
Others have hinted at costs for Beirut if the government tries to defang Hezbollah. Ali Akbar Velayati -- an adviser to Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamanei -- for example, said in a post to X this month that Salam "should know that ignoring the unique role of the resistance and the heroic Hezbollah will expose Lebanon to irreparable security risks."
"Lebanon's stability rests exclusively on cohesion between the government and the resistance," Velayati said.
For many Lebanese -- Shiites among them -- the return to war between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran means more turmoil piled atop years of cascading economic and political crises.
Last month, Salam expressed his own frustration. "This war was imposed upon us," the Lebanese prime minister said, adding that Beirut "could have avoided it" if Hezbollah had not resumed attacks on Israel.
ABC News' Chris Boccia and Jordana Miller contributed to this report
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(LONDON) -- Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in a one-month period for the first time since the start of the ongoing war in 2022, according to daily data published by the Ukrainian Air Force and Russian Ministry of Defense, which was analyzed by ABC News.
Russia's defense ministry reported downing 7,347 Ukrainian drones during March, the highest monthly total ever reported by Moscow and an average of 237 craft each day. The defense ministry only publishes figures of Ukrainian drones it claims were shot down.
Ukraine's air force, meanwhile, said its forces faced 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles of various types across the course of the month, of which 5,833 drones and 102 missiles -- around 90% of drones and just under 74% of missiles -- were intercepted or suppressed.
Ukraine, therefore, faced a daily average of just over 208 drones and four missiles during March, according to the data published by Kyiv.
ABC News cannot independently verify the data released by either Russia or Ukraine. It is possible that both sides may seek to exaggerate the effectiveness of their air defenses, or to amplify the attacks against them as proof that their enemies are not interested in pursuing a peace deal, experts have suggested.
The combined tally of 6,600 Russian drones and missiles reported by Ukraine's air force across the month marks a new record high for a single month of Russian long-range attacks.
Ukraine's air force publishes what it says is a daily tally of Russian drone and missile strikes, including information as to how many munitions were intercepted and how many hit targets.
Russia launched the month's largest overall attack in a 24-hour period by either side. Ukraine's air force said Moscow launched 948 drones and 34 missiles into the country on March 24.
Long-range drone and missile strikes have been a key element of the conflict as both Kyiv and Moscow seek to degrade the other's economy and undermine their ability to prosecute and fund the ongoing war. The strikes have continued despite the resumptions of U.S.-brokered peace talks.
Russia has thus far been able to launch more drones and missiles into Ukraine, with Ukrainian leaders citing Moscow's nightly barrages as a severe threat to the country's strategic position. But March's data suggests the balance may be shifting more in Ukraine's favor, as Kyiv's long-term efforts to expand its drone and missile capabilities bear fruit.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been clear on Kyiv's plans to expand Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.
"Our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35 billion next year," Zelenskyy said in October. "Despite all the difficulties, Ukrainians are creating their national defense product that, in certain parameters, already surpasses many others in the world."
"Never before in history has Ukrainian defense been so long-range and so felt by Russia," Zelenskyy added. "We must make the cost of war absolutely unacceptable for the aggressor -- and we will."
To date, the majority of Ukrainian strikes are believed to have been conducted using relatively cheap, Ukrainian-made drones. Increasingly, Ukraine is also using interceptor drones designed and built by Ukrainian companies to intercept incoming Russian strike drones.
Ukraine is now producing its own cruise missiles -- most notably the Flamingo, which Kyiv says has a range of more than 1,800 miles -- but its drone arsenal still accounts for the vast majority of projectiles reported shot down by the Russian defense ministry, according to daily data published by Moscow.
Over the past year, Ukraine has put a special focus on attacking Russian oil refining and transport facilities, hoping -- according to Ukrainian leaders -- to cut into a key funding stream for Moscow and its military.
Ukraine's most high-profile attacks of March came at Russia's Baltic Sea ports of ?Ust-Luga and Primorsk -- key oil export hubs. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the strikes as "terrorist attacks."
Zelenskyy in February said Russia's energy sector is "a legitimate target" for attacks by Ukraine, because Russia uses revenue from sales of oil to procure weapons used to attack Ukraine.
"We do not have to choose whether we strike a military target or energy," Zelenskyy said while addressing students at the National Aviation University in Kyiv. "He sells oil, takes the money, invests it in weapons. And with those weapons, he kills Ukrainians," Zelenskyy said of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian officials have broadly sought to downplay the Ukrainian attacks, with most reports of damage or casualties attributed to falling debris from intercepted drones, rather than craft that found their mark. When Russian officials do acknowledge damage, they often describe the strikes as “terrorist attacks.”
But plenty of publicly available information -- including video footage and photographs of the attacks -- indicate that a significant number of Ukrainian drones do penetrate Russian air defenses and impact at sensitive military and industrial sites.
Meanwhile, drone incursions into neighboring countries -- among them NATO allies -- have raised concerns of the war spilling over into non-combatant nations.
NATO aircraft are regularly scrambled in NATO nations like Poland and Romania in response to Russian drone attacks along Ukraine's western borders.
Allied officials have reported Russian drone violations in Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Russian drones have also overflown Moldova, which is not a NATO member. Russian officials have denied responsibility for such incursions.
Stray Ukrainian drones have been reported falling in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
ABC News’ Fidel Pavlenko contributed to this report.
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(LONDON) -- President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicked off their joint military campaign against Iran in late February, urging the fall of the Islamic Republic.
"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations," Trump said, addressing Iranians in announcing the start of "major combat operations."
A month of unrelenting combined U.S.-Israeli strikes appears to have significantly eroded Iran's military capabilities and killed many of its most senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died alongside dozens of top Iranian officials in a series of airstrikes on his official residence in Tehran in the opening salvos of the war.
But despite Trump's assertion that the "war has been won," Iranian forces continue to launch attacks on Israel, regional U.S. bases and American partners across the Middle East, while commercial shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, with large numbers of cargo vessels in limbo on either side of the narrow waterway at the southern entrance to the Persian Gulf.
Trump has also asserted that there had been "complete regime change," with the leaders the U.S. is now dealing with in recently announced negotiations "more moderate" and "much more reasonable," the president told ABC News' Jonathan Karl.
Trump named Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the powerful speaker of the Iranian parliament, as the direct U.S. negotiating partner, though Ghalibaf has denied the assertion.
But in Tehran, the cadre of officials – Ghalibaf among them – emerging to take the reins of power appear as committed as the slain figures they are replacing, many of them veterans of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), analysts have said.
The regime in Tehran, according to Danny Citrinowicz – the Israel Defense Forces' former top Iran researcher, now at the Institute for National Security Studies think tank in Israel – "is weaker than it was before the conflict, but it is also more radical. The IRGC has further consolidated its influence over decision-making, eroding what little internal balance once existed within the regime."
The war appears to have given Tehran long-term leverage over the Strait of Hormuz – a "weapon of mass disruption," as described by Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group during an online briefing hosted by the think tank this week.
If the Islamic Republic survives the war, and its immediate aftermath by suppressing simmering anti-regime movements, its new leaders may be emboldened to retain perceived strategic advantages, chief among them control of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts who spoke to ABC News said.
That regime sentiment seems to be crystalizing. Ghalibaf, for example, told the IRNA state news agency that Iran's strategy now rests on its control of three pillars: "missiles, the streets, and the Strait."
Inside Iran, some sense that shift. Darius – who did not wish to use his real name for fear of reprisal – told ABC News from Tehran of a growing sentiment that "the source of legitimacy for the Islamic republic is shifting" from the clerical establishment to the IRGC.
"Now, the de facto leaders of the country are the generals in the IRGC. And they are actually running the show at the moment," Darius said.
IRGC ascendant
The IRGC was formed shortly after the Iranian Revolution by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, ultimately emerging as the new Islamic Republic's primary tool for projecting its ideology and influence beyond its own borders.
The IRGC entrenched and expanded its power during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988. With its battlefield exploits and ideological zeal, the IRGC came to embody the wartime concept of "sacred defense," Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr wrote in his recent book, "Iran's Grand Strategy."
Observers have long considered the IRGC to be the most powerful military, political and economic institution in Iran.
Even before the most recent U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, many experts warned that decapitation strikes or a push for regime change risked empowering the IRGC to seize the state's other mechanisms of power – though others suggested the force had no need to openly seize control, given its de facto hold over the country.
The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, served in an elite IRGC unit during the Iran-Iraq War, and analysts have suggested his candidacy was strongly supported by the force.
Mojtaba Khamenei's newly appointed military adviser, Mohsen Rezaei, was drawn from the senior ranks of the IRGC, as was the new secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who was selected to replace Ali Larijani when the latter was killed by Israeli airstrikes in mid-March.
Meanwhile, IRGC veteran Ghalibaf – who has reportedly long been close to Mojtaba Khamenei – remains alive and appears to be in a position of influence, one of the few top prewar officials to have survived the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
Inside Iran, some sense that shift. Darius told ABC News from Tehran of a growing sentiment that "the source of legitimacy for the Islamic republic is shifting" from the clerical establishment to the IRGC.
"Now, the de facto leaders of the country are the generals in the IRGC. And they are actually running the show at the moment," Darius said.
Reading the 'mosaic'
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi credited a "mosaic defense" strategy with enabling the Iranian military to launch retaliatory strikes despite the killing of so many senior military officials in the opening hours of the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
That decentralized approach also appeared to cause some tactical confusion. Araghchi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, both denied Iranian responsibility for several reported Iranian drone and missile attacks in the region in the days after the war erupted.
A decapitated regime in Tehran may pose challenges to American negotiators seeking a peace deal, Citrinowicz said, telling ABC News that the killings have created a "worse" strategic situation by dispersing power.
The centralized decision-making power enjoyed by Ali Khamenei is no more, he said. "Now, how are you going to work with them? It's going to be very hard to reach an agreement with them," Citrinowicz said, referring to the newly emergent group of leaders.
Trump himself appeared to acknowledge a diffusion of power in Iran as a result of the American-Israeli assassination campaign. "We have nobody to talk to, and you know what, we like it that way," the president said earlier this month.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told "Good Morning America" this week there are "fractures" within the Iranian leadership, though he would not say with whom the administration is in contact.
Yossi Kuperwasser – the former head of the IDF's military intelligence research division – told ABC News that the emergence of hardliners "was to be expected."
"Once you eliminate Khamenei, he's not going to be replaced by some wishy-washy character, but somebody who is committed to the cause and the IRGC is going to be in charge," Kuperwasser said.
But Kuperwasser also noted that figures currently touted as Iranian negotiators, such as Ghalibaf, might not live to see the end of the war. Indeed, Larijani was often noted as among the prime negotiating candidates before his killing. "I'd guess there are going to be more eliminations," Kuperwasser said.
As the war progressed, both U.S. and Israeli officials have distanced themselves from earlier suggestions of regime change. Instead, officials refocused the strategic narrative on their ambitions to degrade Iran's conventional military – especially ballistic missile – and nuclear programs.
These targets, according to Kuperwasser, were always the Israeli priority.
"Simultaneously, we are trying to weaken the regime so as to create the conditions that can be used by the people of Iran in order to promote something that can bring about the removal of the regime from power," Kuperwasser said. But that will not necessarily occur in the short term, he added.
'Missiles, the street, the strait'
Citrinowicz said that whatever structure emerges to negotiate with the Trump administration will likely be influenced toward more hardline demands by the killing of its predecessors.
On the nuclear file, too, "it goes without saying" that Tehran's outlook will have shifted, Citrinowicz said. Before the war, Iranian leaders had already publicly committed not to pursue nuclear weapons, though Tehran was refusing to accept Trump's demands of zero enrichment. Now, Citrinowicz said, the new Iranian leadership "might find themselves rushing toward a bomb."
Iran also has more leverage in the Strait of Hormuz than it did before the conflict, even with the significant military degradation that the U.S. and Israel appear to have inflicted. Officials in Tehran have suggested that Iranian control over the strait – and the requirement for those transiting it to coordinate with Tehran and pay tolls – is the new baseline.
Rubio hinted at long-term disruption in the Persian Gulf last week. "Immediately after this thing ends, and we're done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we're going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz," Rubio said.
Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs think tank said during the Crisis Group briefing that Tehran will be set on a conclusive settlement, not merely a ceasefire that would allow the U.S. and Israel to rearm and resume the conflict at a later date, as was the case after the 12-day conflict in June.
"Deep inside Iran's strategic thinking, there is an understanding that ceasefires are only a means for the United States and Israel to buy time," Azizi said. While before the conflict, Tehran appeared willing to make concessions on the nuclear file and other issues, now Iranian leaders see an opportunity to achieve what they were unable to across years of negotiations.
The endgame, Azizi said, could be one in which Iran preserves "some sort of leverage" over the Strait of Hormuz or secures "substantial sanctions removal."
For its part, Citrinowicz said the U.S. appears to be scrambling. "There are so many people in the U.S. that understand this regime, but the administration is behaving like it's Venezuela. It's crazy," Citrinowicz said, referring to the American operation in January to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and support his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, as Maduro's successor.
Last week, the U.S. delivered 15-point plan to end the war, which was widely interpreted as a blueprint for Tehran's capitulation. Iranian demands are likewise maximalist, calling for reparations and for the U.S. to abandon its regional bases.
"Nobody's getting their wish list," Dalia Dassa Kaye of the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations said during this week's Crisis Group briefing.
In the meantime, the battlefield costs will rise and geopolitical implications deepen across the Middle East. "Even if this ends tomorrow," Kaye said, the costs have already been paid. "It's going to take years to recuperate the damage."
"This is not something you put back in a box," he added.
ABC News' Desiree Adib and Somayeh Malekian contributed to this report.
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(LONDON) -- President Donald Trump is set to address the nation on Wednesday evening with an "important update" on the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which was launched on Feb. 28.
ABC News has collated a timeline of the key events in the conflict to date.
Feb. 28: Combined U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed alongside dozens of senior political and military leaders in strikes on his office in Tehran. Iran immediately began retaliatory attacks targeting Israel, U.S. facilities and allies across the Middle East.
The opening salvo of strikes targeted Iranian government and military sites across the country, but there were allegations of collateral damage. The most significant was an airstrike on a girls' elementary school in the southern city of Minab, which Iranian state media said killed 168 people.
March 1: Six American troops were killed in an Iranian drone strike on a U.S. base in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait -- the first U.S. personnel to be killed in the conflict. Three U.S. F-15 fighter jets are also shot down by friendly fire from Kuwaiti air defenses.
The first commercial tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the beginning of Iran's efforts to choke the flow of shipping through the strategic chokepoint.
March 2: The Iran-aligned Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon launches attacks into northern Israel, framing them as retaliation for several months of Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon. Israel responded by intensifying its campaign -- including with fresh strikes in Beirut -- and launching new ground operations along the shared border.
March 4: The Iranian IRIS Dena frigate was sunk by a U.S. submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 104 crew members, according to the Iranian military.
The Israeli military issued an "urgent warning" to all residents of southern Lebanon located south of the Litani River ahead of intended strikes, ordering them to immediately evacuate and head north of the river — highlighting a vast area.
March 8: Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as the country's next supreme leader, succeeding his father who was killed on Feb. 28. Mojtaba Khamenei's candidacy was reportedly backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in which the new leader once served.
March 12: A U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft went down over western Iraq, killing six airmen. Another aircraft involved in the incident was damaged but able to land safely.
March 17: Ali Larijani, the influential secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an Israeli strike in Tehran.
March 18: The Israeli military strikes the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, which is shared by Iran and Qatar. The attack signaled a move toward the targeting of energy and critical infrastructure targets, prompting Tehran to warn it would target energy targets across the Gulf.
March 20: Iran is accused of launching a missile attack targeting Diego Garcia, a U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean, around 2,500 miles from Iranian territory. The U.S. and Israel said the attacked showed that the range of Iranian missiles was longer than Tehran previously admitted.
March 22: Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on critical energy infrastructure. The president later extended his deadline.
March 24: Airstrikes targeted three major Iranian steelworks, reflecting an apparent shift in U.S.-Israeli strategy toward degrading Iran's economic base.
Iranian drones and missiles targeted the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging several American aircraft -- among them an E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft -- and wounding multiple service members.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military will destroy homes in southern Lebanon, just as it did in the war-torn Gaza Strip, in a continued effort to eliminate Hezbollah militants from the area. Israel will implement "the Rafah and Beit Hanoun models," Katz said, referring to two Gaza border towns that Israel destroyed in its offensive in the Palestinian enclave.
March 28: The Iran-aligned Houthis rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile toward Israel, marking their first involvement in the conflict.
March 28: U.S. Central Command announces the arrival of some 3,500 U.S. sailors and Marines in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli, amid reports of a possible American ground operation against Iran. Around 1,500 soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division are also expected in the region.
March 30: Trump again demanded the end of Iranian harassment of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to broaden U.S. strikes to target Iranian energy facilities and desalination plants.
March 31: Katz says Israeli forces will occupy Lebanese territory up to the Litani River -- around 18 miles north of the Israeli border -- and block the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced residents.
April 1: Trump prepares for an "important" address to the nation related to the war in Iran.
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