Trump makes it official in New Hampshire

On Monday former president Donald Trump arrived at the office of the secretary of state in New Hampshire and paid the $1,000 filing fee to be on the ballot for the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Primary. The date for that primary has not yet been set but New Hampshire state law requires that the state be the first primary on the calendar for every presidential cycle.

Whatever date is chosen, it will be the first in the nation for the Republicans only. That's because in February of this year, the Democratic National Committee approved a new primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold the first Democratic Party primary on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6.

Joe Biden will not be on the primary ballot in New Hampshire. The president's campaign informed the state Democratic Party of that decision this week. Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez said in her letter to New Hampshire Democrats:

The president looks forward to having his name on New Hampshire's general election ballot as the nominee of the Democratic Party after officially securing the nomination at the 2024 Democratic National Convention where he will tirelessly campaign to earn every single vote in the Granite State next November.”

Moving South Carolina into first position for the Democrats ahead of traditional New Hampshire wasn't random, You may recall that in 2020, candidate Joe Biden was soundly beaten in the New Hampshire Primary. His performance in New Hampshire was so bad that he left town in the afternoon, not even staying for the evening vote count.

But the campaign roared back to life on February 29 in South Carolina. With the help and endorsement of Congressman James Clyburn, Joe Biden scored a huge victory in the state and then went on to rather easily claim the party's nomination at the convention in August.

For his part, former president Donald Trump is acting like he has the nomination sewn up. Following his official filing in Concord earlier in the day, he spoke at a rally Monday in Derry, New Hampshire. He had little to say about his Republican rivals and instead turned most of his fire on President Biden.

We are going to defeat crooked Joe Biden – he's a crooked guy – next November. And very simply, we are going to make America great again. It's not great right now. Not great. We're laughed at all over the world.”

It is increasingly difficult to imagine how Trump doesn't run away with the New Hampshire primary. According to the Real Clear Politics average of Granite State polls, Trump sits at 45 percent among New Hampshire Republicans. Nikki Haley sits at a distant second with 19 percent and Ron DeSantis clocks in at third with just 10 percent. All other declared Republican candidates are in mid to low single digits.

Worth noting is the polling collapse of Ron DeSantis. In April, the Florida governor stood at a respectable 29 percent to Trump's 43 percent. Support for DeSantis has dropped in New Hampshire every month since.