South Carolina: Do or die for Nikki Haley?

Last week at this time we were in New Hampshire where it was 23 degrees with two inches of snow on the ground and more continuing to fall.

This morning we're looking at a sunny, spring-like day with a high of 72.

All to say that circumstances change – something that Nikki Haley is counting on.

When the counting was done in the New Hampshire Primary last week, Nikki Haley lost to Donald Trump by 11 percentage points. That margin beat most of the polls, but it was still a double-digit loss coming off a third place finish the week before in the Iowa Caucuses.

Most (let's go ahead and say all) in the pundit class believe that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee. But Nikki Haley vows to stay in the race.

Next up for the GOP is Nevada a week from tomorrow. It's a caucus format and Donald Trump is so far ahead that Nikki Haley isn't even bothering to campaign there. Instead, she's concentrating all her efforts on her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. The South Carolina primary is set for Saturday, February 24.

This past Sunday on NBC's Meet the Press, Ms. Haley was asked if South Carolina is a must-win.

What I do think I need to do is I need to show that I'm building momentum. I need to show that I'm stronger in South Carolina than New Hampshire. Does that have to be a win? I don't think that necessarily has to be a win. But it certainly has to be better than what I did in New Hampshire. And it certainly has to be close.”

The most recent polls in South Carolina are a month old. They have Trump up over Haley by about 30 percentage points.

Attempting to close that gap, she continues to call out Donald Trump's legal troubles and the swirl of controversy that seems to follow him. Again speaking on Meet the Press, Ms. Haley said:

I voted for Donald Trump twice. I was proud to serve America in his administration. The problem is chaos follows him. You know I'm right. Chaos follows him. And we can't be a country in disarray, in a world on fire, and go through four more years of chaos.”

Following South Carolina, the states of Michigan, Idaho, Missouri, the District of Columbia and North Dakota will all hold Republican primaries between February 27 and March 4. But the big calendar event coming up is Super Tuesday on March 5, in which 16 states – including Texas – hold primaries or caucuses.

In almost all cases in primary campaigns, candidates don't pull out until they run out of money. Nikki Haley still has money in the bank. But she's probably right about needing at least a close finish in South Colina. If she doesn't get it, the race for the GOP nomination will likely be over.