Polls and betting markets are leaning toward Trump.

As of yesterday, the 2024 presidential election was exactly four weeks away and according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, the race couldn't be tighter.

A presidential election is a state-by-state affair and in this cycle, seven states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia - are regarded as the all-important “swing states.”

Kamala Harris leads by a point or less in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. Donald Trump leads by less than a point in the other four.

We continue to believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. According to the Real Clear Politics average in Pennsylvania, Trump is up by two tenths of a point. That margin is distorted, however, by one poll from Bloomberg that has Harris up by five. The other polls have the race as a tie or have Trump up by greater than the margin of error.

There's another data point to which attention should be paid: the betting markets. That analysis is not good news for the Harris campaign.

The betting markets site Polymarket says that is has more than $1 billion in bets on the presidential election and that the betting has Trump up over Harris in Pennsylvania by six points. The RCP averages have Trump winning in the other states where he is polling in the lead. Taken together, these numbers give Trump a 281 to 257 Electoral College win.

The betting markets are of particular concern for the Harris campaign for the simple reason that those same markets in 2016 had Hillary Clinton up by 62 points. She lost that election. At this point in 2020, Joe Biden was up by 29 points. He won by single digits.

Regarding Pennsylvania, that critical state was in the news again this past week. Donald Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, the site at which a sniper came within millimeters of killing him at a rally on July 13. An estimated crowd of 60,000 turned out to hear the former president, who said this to open his speech:

Donald Trump: Thank you. A very big thank you to Pennsylvania. We love Pennsylvania. And as I was saying…

As is always the case, events drive presidential elections. This time around it's the weather. Hurricane Helene's devastation has led to sharp criticism of the Biden-Harris administration's response. At that Pennsylvania rally, Donald Trump said this:

Donald Trump: This has been the worst hurricane response by a president and vice president since Katrina. And this is simply not acceptable.

Last night on “Late Night with Stephen Colbert,” Kamala Harris defended the administration's response.

Kamala Harris: To all of those folks in North Carolina and Georgia, please know that FEMA and the people on the ground are there to help you. You are entitled to help. There's a lot of misinformation. And I beseech you, I beg you to please not pay attention to it, because there are a whole lot of folks who are there to give you help and aid.

Less than a month to go in an incredibly tight race for the White House with the trends favoring Donald Trump.