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Paul Gleiser

Rising from the political ashes.

Following his defeat by Joe Biden four years ago political pundits on both sides of the divide wrote off any potential for a political future for Donald Trump.

Calling it for Trump.

The polling data, taken together with anecdotal data of significant movement among black and Hispanic voters toward Trump and the Republican Party, creates an unquantifiable but undeniable sense that Donald Trump is going to win this election.

Advantage Trump – Again

Trump now leads in all seven battleground states by margins ranging from four tenths of a point in Wisconsin and North Carolina to two and a half points in Georgia.

Advantage Trump.

In the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump now leads Harris in all those battleground states save for Wisconsin.

A cordial, policy-centric affair.

Last night’s vice-presidential debate was, to the credit of both Governor Tim Walz and Senator J.D. Vance, cordial and policy centric.

Voting has begun.

It is worth noting that today’s poll numbers are the best that Donald Trump has had in any of his three runs at the presidency.

State of the race: Tight.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Vice President Kamala Harris now leads former president Donald Trump by two points nationally.

Faceoff in Philly.

Last night Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump met in Philadelphia for the first – and potentially only – debate of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Walking around.

Convention delegates and attendees spend a lot of time every evening just walking around.

The signs at the convention.

A political convention is very carefully stage managed, all the way down as to what signs are waved by delegates and attendees.

The wind now at her back.

Trump now trails in Michigan and Wisconsin. His lead in the other five battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia is at or below the margin of error.

A tightening race, a surprising pick.

The big news this week is that Kamala Harris defied the expectations of most of the “experts” and picked Minnesota governor Tim Walz to be her running mate.

The Perimeter

You don’t just walk up to the Fiserv Forum at the Republican National Convention.

The wind at his back.

Polling data is beginning to come in that takes into account President Biden’s disastrous debate performance two weeks ago and the news is all good for Donald Trump.

Disaster in Atlanta.

The debate between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump marked the first candidate debate to take place in advance of the party conventions. It was a catastrophic night for the president.

Debate in Atlanta.

This debate, like so many things about this 2024 presidential race, marks a first. It’s the first time that the candidates have debated prior to the party conventions.

Dazed and confused.

The apparent cognitive decline of President Biden has dominated much of the coverage of the race in the past 10 days.