Advantage Trump - Again

The headline of our report last week read, “Advantage Trump.” Let's call this report “Advantage Trump – Again.” According to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump now leads in all seven battleground states by margins ranging from four tenths of a point in Wisconsin and North Carolina to two and a half points in Georgia.

Particularly notable in the swing states are the latest Rasmussen Reports polls. Rasmussen was among the most accurate of the polls in both 2016 and 2020. In North Carolina, Rasmussen has Trump up by five. In Wisconsin Rasmussen shows Trump up by two and trending upward. And in all-important Pennsylvania, without which there is very little chance of a Harris Electoral College victory, Rasmussen has Trump up by three and trending higher.

FOX News Radio's Brooke Singman sums up the state of the race in this report yesterday:

Brooke Singman: Former President Donald Trump continuing his election push as he is making huge gains with traditionally Democrat voting blocs. The former president is now leading the vice president by 11 points with Latino voters, according to a new USA Today and Suffolk University poll. The same poll shows Harris's support among black voters is reaching historic lows among Democratic presidential nominees, with just 72% of likely black voters supporting her. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris will be in Washington, D.C., and does not have any campaign events on her schedule. Trump will be holding a roundtable with Latino leaders in Miami, Florida, before traveling to Greensboro, North Carolina, for a rally.”

As we have reported now for many weeks, Pennsylvania - the Keystone State - is all but certain to be the keystone in the 2024 presidential election. Pennsylvania is an oil producing state and Kamala Harris's firmly stated opposition to hydraulic fracturing - called “fracking” - as a means of oil production is causing her campaign considerable heartburn. Opposition to fracking could cost her Pennsylvania. Support for fracking could cause her base voters to sit out the election.

FOX News Radio's Gary Trimble reports on Harris's conundrum this way:

Grady Trimble: Harris advocated for a fracking ban back when she was a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries in 2019. But this time around, as her party's candidate, she said she doesn't support a fracking ban. Now, the campaign is saying she doesn't support the expansion of energy production. This is what the US Oil and Gas Association says. Today we all learned that Kamala Harris's October position is that she now opposes fracking and no longer supports her July position in which she supported fracking, which was a change in her prior prior position of June, in which she was opposed to fracking. They say if you find this confusing. You're not alone.”

It's worth noting that Democratic senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin - both locked in tight reelection races that polls show to be within the margin of error - are now distancing themselves from Harris and the Biden administration in their campaign ads.

And so, with 12 days left, it continues Advantage Trump.