Running out of time.
Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis greets Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, left, at the end of the Family Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum, Friday, Nov. 17, 2023, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
It’s crunch time for Ron DeSantis.
The Iowa Caucuses are just 47 days away and DeSantis is only a couple of days away from having visited all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State. DeSantis’s Iowa all-in strategy – to the exclusion of the other early primary states – mimics the strategies of Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum in 2012, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in 2008. All three of these men came in first in the Iowa Caucuses.
The problem with that strategy for DeSantis is two-fold.
First, DeSantis is extremely unlikely to come in first in 2024. Former president Donald Trump holds a commanding 30-point advantage over DeSantis in Iowa according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. The best that DeSantis can hope for in Iowa is a strong second place finish.
Second, in the end, winning Iowa didn’t much matter to Cruz, Santorum or Huckabee. A couple of weeks after Iowa in 2016, Donald Trump trounced Ted Cruz by a nearly three-to-one margin in the New Hampshire Primary. In 2012 Mitt Romney pounded Rick Santorum by nearly four to one in New Hampshire. And in 2008 John McCain beat Mike Huckabee by nearly three to one in the Granite State.
Of course, we remember that Trump, Romney and McCain each took their New Hampshire victories all the way to the Republican nomination.
And that brings up a third problem for Ron DeSantis. Her name is Nikki Haley.
The former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina governor is surging in New Hampshire. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Haley is in second place behind Donald Trump at just under 19 percent. In July, she was in low single digits. DeSantis on the other hand is sinking in New Hampshire. Since July DeSantis has fallen from the low twenties to the high single digits. The Real Clear average as of today has him at 7.7 percent, 11 points behind Nikki Haley and a full 38 points behind Donald Trump.
In apparent recognition of the danger that she poses to his candidacy in New Hampshire, DeSantis has trained his political fire on Haley. Speaking with Laura Ingraham Monday night on the Ingraham Angle on the FOX News Channel he said this:
She has taken very, very establishment-oriented positions. We know she had the social media proposal to force everybody to give their names, which we know would be weaponized against conservatives…”
Like Iowa on January 15, New Hampshire a week later will also be a battle for second place. Assuming the polls hold, Nikki Haley will take a second place finish in New Hampshire into the primary in her home state of South Carolina on February 24.
Back in January, Ron DeSantis was fresh off a huge re-election victory in Florida that concurrently moved that state from swing-state status to solidly red. He looked like he was well-positioned for a run for the Republican presidential nomination. Absent some intervening force, it’s now hard to imagine his campaign continuing past New Hampshire.
