Tim Scott calls it quits.
The campaign story this week comes from Republican candidate and South Carolina senator Tim Scott.
I’m suspending my campaign. I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that…they’re telling me, not now, Tim.”
Tim Scott leaves behind 6.7 percent voter support in Iowa, where the Iowa Caucuses in January will mark the official beginning of the race for the nomination, and four percent voter support in New Hampshire, home of the first Republican primary election in the nation.
As is always the case when the field of candidates begins to winnow, the question becomes to whom will the retreating candidate bequeath his or her support? In the case of Tim Scott he says,
I’m gonna recommend that the voters study each candidate and their candidacies and frankly their past and make the best decision for the future of the country. The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in on who they should endorse.”
At this writing, the general election is 356 days away. That’s an eternity in politics. But with that said, this isn’t your father’s, nor your grandfather’s nor even your great-grandfather’s presidential election cycle. This is the first time since Grover Cleveland’s campaign in 1892 that a former president has sought election to a non-consecutive term.
That former president is Donald Trump, and his presence dominates Republican primary politics.
The mathematics at this juncture argue that it doesn’t matter to whom the Republican candidates who quit the race throw their support. The math suggests that Trump wins no matter what.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump stands at 47.3 percent in Iowa. According to those polls, if all other candidates dropped out and 100 percent of those voters supported someone else – which would never happen – Trump would only trail that theoretical someone by four points.
In New Hampshire, if 100 percent of non-Trump support went elsewhere, Trump would still lead by four tenths of a point.
So, it’s now a race for second place between Florida governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. DeSantis leads Haley in Iowa. Haley leads DeSantis in New Hampshire.
For her part, Nikki Haley is on the stump touting her electability over President Joe Biden.
It’s not just about the primary, everybody’s talking about the primary now, it’s who can beat Joe Biden. And who can beat any Democrat that goes there. And you can tell from the momentum that we have. But more than that, look at the polls. We crush Joe Biden in a general election. And this about making sure we don’t have a President Kamala Harris.
Thanksgiving is next week. Christmas and New Year’s Day follow closely behind. Two weeks after the parties and the college bowl games are over, Iowans gather in living rooms, church social halls and community centers and make their pick for the GOP nominee.
For DeSantis and Haley, the calendar is now the enemy.