Disappointment (again) for the GOP.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, right, hands out sample ballots along with Virginia State Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant R-Henrico, as they greet voters at a polling station Tuesday Nov. 7, 2023, in Glenn Allen, Va. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
It was déjà vu all over again for Republicans last night – a mini-repeat of the dashed hopes for a red wave that was expected in last year’s congressional midterm elections.
With President Biden’s approval numbers standing at dismal lows, the pollsters and the pundits predicted a big night for the GOP in several key state off-year elections that were seen as bellwethers for 2024.
We start in Virginia. You’ll recall that in the state’s 2021 election for governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin scored an upset victory over Terry McCauliffe and has enjoyed strong popularity since. Glenn Youngkin himself wasn’t on the ballot in Virginia last night but his prestige and his agenda were. Virginians were voting in a legislative election and the polls suggested that Gov. Youngkin was going to achieve his goal, which he clearly stated at a campaign event in Manassas, Virginia Monday afternoon.
And what does winning look like? Hold the house, flip the senate. Hold the house, flip the senate. Hold the house, flip the senate.”
That did not happen. Not only did the Virginia senate not flip to Republican control, the house flipped in favor of the Democrats. Youngkin will now be seriously hamstrung for the balance of his term.
The pollsters and the pundits got Virginia wrong.
We move now to Kentucky. Kentucky is deep red. In 2020 Donald Trump trounced Joe Biden by a 62 to 36 percent margin. Given the deep unpopularity of the nominal leader of the Democratic Party, that being Joe Biden, it was thought that Republican challenger Daniel Cameron had a strong chance of unseating incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear.
It didn’t happen. Beshear won reelection 52 to 47 – a stinging disappointment for Republicans.
On now to Ohio. Ohio has of late been fairly reliably red. In 2020, Donald Trump took all but seven of Ohio’s 88 counties, beating Joe Biden 53 to 45 percent.
There were no candidates on the ballot in Ohio yesterday but a key issue that divides Republicans and Democrats was. That issue was abortion.
By a 57 to 43 percent margin, Ohio voters approved Ohio Issue 1, which makes it a state constitutional right to, “make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions.”
In the case of Ohio, pre-election-day polls at least called it correctly.
The only victory for Republicans last night was in Mississippi. Republican governor Tate Reeves easily won reelection over Democratic challenger Brandon Presley – the cousin of Elvis Presley – by a 52 to 47 percent margin.
The GOP’s disappointing night comes on the heels of a New York Times/Siena poll that shows former president Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in five of the six swing states for 2024. According to the poll, Trump has anywhere from a four to a 10-point lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
Given that yesterday’s election was touted as a 2024 bellwether, and that pre-election polls generally favored the GOP, Republicans in general and Trump supporters in particular might be less excited about that New York Times poll today than they were on Monday.
