The wind now at her back.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, with Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, left, and UAW President Shawn Fain, speaks at a campaign rally at UAW Local 900, Thursday, August 8, 2024, in Wayne, Mich. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
When I was packing up my gear and heading home from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last month, I was reporting that Donald Trump had the wind in his sails. National polls – and the far more important battleground state polls – showed Trump handily beating President Joe Biden, who was at the time the presumptive Democratic Party nominee.
I got home from the RNC on Friday July 19. Two days later, on Sunday, the entire race changed.
Now, it is Kamala Harris with the wind in her sails. Enthusiasm among Democrats has soared with Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket. The polls reflect that enthusiasm.
As of that Friday morning, July 19 when the RNC was finished, Trump led in all seven battleground states. In all but Michigan and Wisconsin, his lead was greater than the margin of error.
That is no longer the case. Trump now trails in Michigan and Wisconsin. His lead in the other five battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia is at or below the margin of error.
(Prediction: As we have been saying for weeks, the swing state of swing states is Pennsylvania. Whoever wins the Keystone State wins the White House.)
Another metric worth watching is the Real Clear Politics average of betting odds. The reason it’s worth watching is because rather than just answering a poll question, people are putting their own money on the line. That metric, too, is not great news for Trump. On that Friday morning following the Republican convention, the bookmakers had Trump to win at +40. Those same bookmakers today have Harris to win at +6.
For her part, Kamala Harris appears to be tacking to the center. She has reversed her position on fracking. She has nodded in the direction of securing the border. And she has outright adopted a policy position that Donald Trump put forth weeks ago. At a rally earlier this week in Las Vegas, she said this:
KAMALA HARRIS…including to raise the minimum wage. And eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.”
Ms. Harris is not taking questions from the media and has not been interviewed since replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Donald Trump is eager therefore to debate her. In a segment on FOX & Friends on the FOX News Channel last week he said this:
DONALD TRUMP: I think debates are very important and I think she’ll be exposed, just like Biden was exposed. Nobody knew Biden was that bad. And then he was exposed during the debate, and they tried to have a series of comebacks after that, and they didn’t work out too well.”
The next day at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate, he followed up on debating Ms. Harris with this:
We’ve agreed with Fox on a date of September 4th. We’ve agreed with NBC. Fairly full agreement subject to them…on September 10th. And we’ve agreed with ABC on September 25th.”
So far, the Harris campaign has not agreed to a debate schedule.
