A tightening race, a surprising pick.
Presumptive VP nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz sits for an interview in February 2024 in this file photo. (AP Photo/Steve Karnowski)
For the first time since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump is behind in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. He’s not behind by much – a mere half a point, well within the margin of error. But the fact that Trump’s lead has evaporated since Joe Biden left the race and Vice President Kamala Harris took his place is significant. It is indicative of much higher enthusiasm among Democrats.
The question that was being asked prior to Joe Biden’s withdrawal was, “Is Trump leading because voters like Trump or is he leading because voters don’t like Biden?” That question seems to have been settled for now.
As we say here often, national polls are good entertainment, but they don’t mean a lot when it comes to electing a president. The polls that matter come from the key battleground states that make the critical difference in the Electoral College. On that front, Trump is still leading in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. He trails Kamala Harris in Michigan. It is important to note that Trump’s lead in six of the seven and Harris’s lead in Michigan are now all within the margin of error. That fact, too, marks a significant erosion in the polls for Trump.
But we’re burying the lede. The big news this week is that Kamala Harris defied the expectations of most of the “experts” and picked Minnesota governor Tim Walz to be her running mate. Most pundits – present company included – believed that she would select Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro, viewed by many as much more centrist than Kamala Harris, is very popular in a state that Harris really must win if she is to win the election.
The Trump campaign is happy with Harris’s selection of Tim Walz. Here’s FOX News Radio’s Bryan Llenas:
BRYAN LLENAS: The Trump campaign is publicly celebrating this pick. They are characterizing Walz as super progressive, if not dangerous. And the former president; he took to Truth Social and in one line just said, “Thank you.” Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, though, says that Walz is not on the far left. Moderate independent Senator Joe Manchin praised Harris’s pick, “I can think of no one better than Governor Walz to help bring our country closer together and bring balance back to the Democratic Party. Governor Walz is the real deal.”
Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance lost no time characterizing Tim Walz:
J.D. VANCE: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz do make an interesting team because if we remember the rioting in the summer of 2020, Tim Walz was the guy who let rioters burn down Minneapolis. And then Kamala Harris was the one who bailed the rioters out of jail. So, there’s an interesting team in that sense.”
The pronouncements of the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Manchin notwithstanding and given the policy position history and voting records of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, it is probably fair to say that the 2024 Democratic ticket is farther to the left than in any in recent history.
