Is it eight on the stage? Or nine?

TOP ROW l-r: Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy BOTTOM ROW: Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchison

Eight candidates qualified under the Republican National Committee’s rules to participate in tonight’s debate. To qualify, each candidate had to be at one percent or better in three top national polls or a mix of national and early state polls. Each candidate had to have a minimum of 40,000 unique individual donors with 200 or more donors in at least 20 states. And each candidate had to sign a pledge to support the eventual GOP nominee in the general election next year.

Eight candidates met those criteria. They are, in descending order of polling status according to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former vice president Mike Pence, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, South Carolina senator Tim Scott, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchison and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum.

Not at tonight’s debate: former president Donald Trump. He instead will be appearing in a recorded online interview with former FOX News Channel host Tucker Carlson. That interview will be streamed concurrent with tonight’s debate in what is obviously counter-programming.

Trump has a commanding lead in the polls. Some might say overwhelming. In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, he sits at 55.9 percent among Republican voters, a whopping 41-point advantage over second place candidate Ron DeSantis. DeSantis sits at 14.6 percent. All the rest are mid to low single digits.

So, Trump will not be on the stage tonight. Or won’t he? His absence will certainly be noted by every candidate. The fact that he’s not in the room will, in a perverse sort of way, serve to put him in the room.

Governor Ron DeSantis, who really needs to gain and therefore has the most to lose from tonight’s debate, has already had something to say about Trump giving the event a pass. Speaking with the FOX News Channel’s Martha MacCallum, who along with FOX’s Bret Baier will be moderating tonight’s debate, Governor DeSantis said this.

Everybody should debate. Everybody has a responsibility to earn people’s votes. Nobody is entitled to anything in this world, less of all the Republican nomination for president. So I’m gonna be there, I’m gonna be making the case…”

We say the need to gain and the most to lose on the part of Ron DeSantis. If the polls are to be believed, his campaign has simply not taken off. He has actually lost ground to Donald Trump since formally announcing his candidacy. His campaign has undergone a number of reorganizations and staff changes. Tonight is critical for DeSantis. He will be looking to make an impact sufficient to put some wind in the sails of his sputtering campaign. It’s way too early to say ‘do or die.’ But tonight is critically important for DeSantis.

Trump justifies his absence on the strength of his commanding lead in the polls. ‘Why should I debate when I’m leading?,’ has been Trump’s attitude. The former president is, as we all know, now facing two state criminal indictments, one each from New York and Georgia, and two federal criminal indictments. The costs of defending those cases are said to be significantly impacting the former president’s campaign war chest.

Expect all the candidates tonight to raise Trump’s legal problems – and the diversion of campaign funds into his legal defense – as a potential drag on his electability in November of next year.

So, as we say, Trump will be on the stage even though he won’t be on the stage.