One of the devices used by pundits and politicos of every stripe is the, “If the election were held today…” meme. The phrase usually precedes the citing of poll data, data that is generally supportive of whatever position the speaker happens to hold.
It’s an unfortunate fact of our deeply divided political lives that polls have come to be used more often to shape public opinion than to measure it. And with respect to picking a president there is only one poll that matters, and it happens on a Tuesday that is, at this writing, 166 days away.
All of this to say that polls don’t really mean a lot right now. Yet, they’re out there and it’s hard not to see them and take note of what they say. So off we go.
Let’s start with a very recent CNN poll taken among registered voters. It shows presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by five percentage points on a nationwide basis.
Such data is interesting but, in the end, not useful. That’s because presidents aren’t elected on a nationwide basis. They are elected via 50 separate state elections. And in the so-called “battleground states” – the 15 states that were decided by eight percentage points or less in 2016 – that CNN poll shows Trump with a seven-point lead.
James Carville, a Democratic strategist who worked for Bill Clinton, once famously admonished the Clinton campaign to stay focused by saying, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Indeed, privately and in their sober moments, top Democratic strategists were confesseing that a roaring economy was making Donald Trump hard to beat. That roar has now been reduced to a pitiful moan by the COVID-19 pandemic.
But according to a YouGov poll, two thirds of Americans don’t blame Trump for it. And on the subject of the economy, that CNN poll shows Trump with a 12-point lead over Joe Biden when the question was asked, “Who do you trust more to handle the economy?”
One last bit from the CNN poll. When respondents were asked about “sharpness and stamina,” they favored Trump over Biden by 49 to 46 percent.
Rasmussen, which measures ‘likely voters’ as opposed to ‘registered voters’ and was the most accurate pollster of the 2016 election, has another snapshot. In their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump’s approval stands at 49 percent, two points above Barack Obama at this exact point in his first term.
Gallup echoes Rasmussen. According to the most recent Gallup data, Trump’s current approval tops that of four of the last six presidents – including Obama and Bush 43 – at this point in their first terms. All of this despite three years of relentless Democratic persecution and a media that is more hostile to this president than to any in recent memory.
In politics, 166 days is an eternity. And none of us has ever covered an election during a pandemic, so experience is only a limited guide. But 166 days out, Trump could be in worse shape. And Biden wishes he were in better shape.