Over two presidential election cycles we have quoted former British prime minister Harold Macmillan possibly to the point of tediousness. Circumstances nevertheless require us to do so again. As the possibly apocryphal story goes, the newly elected Macmillan was asked by a reporter what might determine the course of his government. Macmillan replied, “Events, dear boy. Events.
We have said in our weekly reports over these two cycles that events also dictate the courses of campaigns. So it is following the death last Friday of Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Reaction to Ginsburg’s death predictably broke hard along party lines. Republicans see the opportunity to replace the very liberal Ginsburg with a conservative justice, changing the balance of the court from a sometimes unreliable 5-4 conservative majority to a more securely conservative 6-3 majority.
Republicans also believe that there is a high possibility that the November 3 election will be hotly contested and, reminiscent of the 2000 Bush v. Gore scenario, wind up in the Supreme Court. A 4-4 tie in the top court under extremely contentious conditions would pose very serious problems.
Democrats, for their part, are recalling the refusal of the Senate in 2016 to consider President Barack Obama’s election year nomination of Merrick Garland to succeed Antonin Scalia. Scalia’s replacement wasn’t considered until after the election then and Ginsburg’s election shouldn’t be considered until after the election now, they say.
Both candidates have weighed in on the matter. President Trump said on Monday that he will nominate a woman to fill the seat and that he will do so Friday or Saturday following the memorial service for Justice Ginsburg. At a campaign event in Pennsylvania yesterday he said:
The appointment of a United States Supreme Court justice was much more important to the voters than I thought. And they’re right. Because they will set policy for 50 years. And they’ll set policy whether it’s life, whether it’s second amendment…”
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is making the Merrick Garland argument:
There is no doubt…let me be clear that the voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice for the Senate to consider. This was the position of the Republican Senate took in 2016 when there were almost 10 months to go before the election. That’s the position the United States Senate must take today…”
Both candidates must consider the positions of their bases. A 6-3 conservative majority high court is Kryptonite to Democrats. They will do all in their power to keep it from coming about. The issue will energize their base and perhaps help turnout.
The Republican base calls “BS” on Biden’s demand that an appointment wait until after the election. Had Democrats been in control of the Senate in 2016, there is no doubt, Republicans say, that the Senate would have moved to confirm Barack Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland.
The president is going forward with a nomination. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he has the votes to confirm.
It’s fall. But expect very high temperatures.