If you believe the polls it’s over. Joe Biden is up by double digits nationally and he holds commanding leads in most of the battleground states. According to the polls and most of the pundits, it looks like Joe Biden will become the 46thpresident.
But let’s drill a little deeper than where the media-sponsored polls take us.
In a debate with Walter Mondale during the 1984 presidential campaign, President Ronald Reagan posed this question to voters. “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Voters answered that question with a 49-state landslide for Reagan.
Since that famous moment, Gallup has been polling that question at about the same point during every election cycle. They just did so for this cycle.
And the answer? An astonishing 56 percent of voters said that they are better off. That’s double digits better than where Barack Obama polled on that question when he defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 and where George W. Bush polled when he beat John Kerry in 2004. And it’s despite a pandemic that has put the lives of millions of Americans on lockdown. It’s despite unemployment that exceeds eight percent.
Then there’s the question of Joe Biden’s readiness for the job. The media isn’t actually pressing this question, but it nevertheless hangs there. A couple of recent episodes suggest that it’s a legitimate question.
Speaking to reporters on the ramp at an airport in Ohio, Biden couldn’t remember Mitt Romney’s name:
At another campaign event he couldn’t remember which office he is seeking:
You know, we have to come together. That’s why I’m running. I’m running as a proud Democrat for the Senate.
That’s a least the second time that presidential candidate Biden has said he is running for the Senate.
Then there is the question of enthusiasm. Which candidate has the mojo – the momentum late in the fourth quarter?
To examine that question we can look at recent campaign rallies by the two candidates. At an event in Erie, Pennsylvania this past Saturday, it looked like this:
On that same day, a Trump rally in Orlando, Florida looked like this:
One final bit of information that you probably won’t hear from the legacy media. While it’s true that Donald Trump is down in almost all of the brand name polls, it is also true that he is polling even or ahead of where he was in those same polls at this point in the 2016 campaign.
There are no predictions being made here. As to the winner of the 2020 election, it looks like Joe Biden.
But it feels like Donald Trump.