There are 124 days remaining until the 2020 presidential election, which is good news for Donald Trump. Because if the election were held tomorrow – or this coming Tuesday – it is likely that he would lose.
Despite the fact that Joe Biden has barely put on a campaign, and despite the fact that memories of his gaffes and mental lapses remain fresh in the minds of millions of voters, he nevertheless leads President Trump in every single major poll. A recent Fox News poll – which some might say would favor Trump – has the president at a 12-point disadvantage.
Those are national polls – interesting but in the end of limited value in forecasting the outcome of a U.S. presidential election. Presidents aren’t chosen nationally. They’re chosen in 50 separate state elections.
On that front, the news for President Trump is even worse. According to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls, Biden is beating Trump in every one of the key battleground states. If the polls are to be believed, Trump loses by seven in Florida, nine in Michigan, six in Pennsylvania, eight in Wisconsin, two in North Carolina and four in Arizona. Trump carried all six of those states in 2016.
A separate Fox News poll has the race at even money here in Texas.
Perhaps more ominous for the Trump campaign are the betting odds. Through May 31, bookmakers had Trump solidly in the lead over Biden. Today, the oddsmakers have Biden winning by 22.
The Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows President Trump with only a 44 percent approval rating among likely voters – his worst showing in more than two years.
A recent Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma drew only an estimated 6,500 to an arena that would accommodate three times that number.
Critics of the Trump campaign complain that the president is spending too much time baiting a hostile press and relitigating past grievances. The Wall Street Journal editorial board takes him to task for failing to outline a coherent and positive second-term agenda. Says the Journal,
…he wasted his chance to show leadership by turning his daily pandemic pressers into brawls with the bear-baiting press and any politician who didn’t praise him to the skies. Lately he has all but given up even talking about the pandemic when he might offer realism and hope about the road ahead even as the country reopens. His default now is defensive self-congratulation.”
Four months is an eternity in politics. And as we have said here before, events yet to occur will have an enormous impact on this election.
But it is clear that the president’s reelection bid has hit a low ebb. The country is weary and a more than a bit grumpy. Some uplifting words about the future and a clearly stated vision for getting the country back on its economic feet would, it seems, be more effective than continued sniping and name calling by the president.
It’s not anywhere close to too late for the Trump campaign. But they should probably go ahead and start acting like it is.