There are reasons for both sides to be optimistic with less than two weeks to go before Election Day. We start with the Dems.
Almost all of the brand-name polls show Joe Biden with a commanding lead. The Real Clear Politics average has Biden over Trump by almost nine points nationally and by an average of four points in the key battleground states. That includes states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – states that were key to President Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.
Perhaps very encouraging for the Democrats is the Investors Business Daily/TIPP daily tracking poll, which was one of the few polls to predict a Trump win in 2016. As of this morning, that poll shows Biden up by 2.3. Trump was narrowly ahead at the same time four years ago. (It must be said, though, that this daily tracking poll is moving in Trump’s direction.)
To the extent that the cheerleaders make a difference in the outcome of the game, the Democrats clearly have the advantage. Almost the entirety of the northeast media cabal has Biden winning the contest in a waltz.
Despite all this, President Trump is sounding optimistic. Speaking to reporters on Monday he said:
I think we’ll do better than 2016. We’re way ahead of where we were in 2016 and I’ve done things that nobody has ever done. We built the greatest economy in the world and we’re building it rapidly again. If you look at Arizona, if you look at the job they’ve done…and I’m just leaving other states, I mean every one of these Republican-run states are doing phenomenally.”
There’s data out there to suggest that the president’s statement is more than just bravado.
He won Pennsylvania in 2016 by a narrow 44,000 votes. In 2016, Democrats had a 900,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans. In 2020, that advantage has slipped to 700,000, a fact that can only help Trump.
In Florida that picture is even better for Trump. The Democratic voter registration advantage over Republicans in Florida has dropped by nearly 60 percent since 2016.
That Florida number might be attributable to Hispanic voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump among Hispanics in Florida 62 percent to 35 percent. A recent NBC/Marist poll has Trump ahead among Florida Hispanics 50 to 46.
African American voters could make a huge difference for Trump this time. In 2016, Hillary Clinton took a whopping 92 percent of the African American vote. However, a September Rasmussen poll has Trump’s approval among black voters at 45 percent. If as few as one out of four of those approving black voters actually votes for Trump, it will spell disaster for the Biden ticket.
And perhaps most telling is this. When asked by Gallup who they thought would win the election – not who are you going to vote for but who do you think will actually win – 56 percent of those polled said Donald Trump. Only 40 percent are predicting a Biden win.
Thirteen days to go. Both sides thinking they’re going to win.
Stay tuned. We’re about to find out.